AtlanticFlamethrower

That large anomaly probably increases the danger to the US north east. This SST map shows 27 degrees going much closer to New York than to the Azores and the track is still basically going anywhere.

What a difference a year makes. This time last year we'd had three Hurricanes and were already on to Tropical Storm Franklin. td2 looks in good shape on the water vapour floater. It's got a good arm of moisture going north from the outflow. There's a noticable core of moisture, on the image shown by spots of orange. Without shear and being close to the gulf stream it should develop fast and sustain itself unless it gets too close to the coast. In which case it might not do more than Cat 1 if it gets past a TS.

A below average July CET would be unthinkable. I'll go for 1.4+ 17.9 C.

10.11C We need at least 1 below average summer month for any chance of a below double digit figure. May was pretty unspectacular, cool and hot moments and a lot of rain which was the big feature, yet still managed just under a degree above the average. I've heard people say May was a "cool" month.

Isn't the problem with that the skewing effect of technology? They didn't use to count hurricanes that grew in the big waters and never hit shore. I suspect there isn't yet enough data available to draw adequate conclusions and any statement either way is as much guess as fact.

Might the winter la nina cold anomaly have migrated northwards somehow, up the west cost of N America?

That's what I was referring too with my melting ice comment. What is the significance of that horse-shoe pattern? What's caused it?

The track of the cold anomalies follows the track of the gulf stream. To the north - warm anomaly, to the south - cold. Is it all the ice melting that is making the seas of the Northern Hemisphere so anomally cold at the surface?

15.4C for me. With the climate having been on a warming trend I can't imagine a summer month giving us a below average CET.

Storm that passed through Essex about at about 1.30pm began with a flurry of snow. Turned to hard rain with some sleet mixed in, then the rain got lighter and then stopped 20 minutes later.

11.6; a whole, whopping 0.2 above average!

FWIW I make the mean of everyone 8.09C. (That's 372.19 / 46 if you want to double-check). I think last month's group mean was about 1C above the actual CET. This month we look like over-compensating on the cold side, mean being 1 C below! (There was a British scientist who said if a group guessed the number of sweets in a jar the group mean would be more accurate than individuals - who was that? I'd be cool if it worked with CET too, although not looking likely ATM!)

This is post is intended to be a bit of fun. Don't know the best forum for it so please move it if necessary - I think it will be something to learn from but a bit more complex than basic so I'm trying Advanced discussions. What's your top 10 biggest influences on the world's weather? Try and put these things that drive the weather in order in any given year; most important globally first, then most important regionally. Do not include basic physics eg: gravity, chaos in the list but do include cycles. In my list big Volcano erruptions come under "acts of nature" with earthquakes and meteors. 1. Sun - solar radiation 2. Earth Movement (Milankovitch cycles) 3. ENSO - El Nino/La Nina (how warm/cold a huge volume of water is in the east pacific) 4. Acts of Nature 5. Atlantic Sea temperature anomalies (NAO) 6. Air pollution (eg. smog, regional) 7. Global warming (still a believer although I'm listening to contrary evidence & arguments...) 8. Stratosferric patterns (know nothing about this except that the stratosphere is above the troposphere, might include polar vortex?) 9. Extent of snow Ice/Cover (depends on many of the above factors, but resulting albedo or lack thereof can result in a cascade of effects 10. Moon/Planets in the solar system. (Don't really understand this one, putting it in because it's a popular subject of discussion and who knows what scientists of the future may prove). Obviously this is unlikely to be an acceptable list for many here - I'm not an expert! Hope it's given a few ideas to start of with.

Initiate has swung to mild... so exciting! Anything below 8C looks courageous now. Another cool spell however might put 7.3 in the frame though below that seems unlikely as even the colder spells will be warmer later in the month than earlier. I'm suprised by the difference a few days can make.

With third of the month gone the 9s and 10s are starting to look a little high ... seems the cool period is continuing from March.

We go into April * blocked set up being a recurring feature since Feb, and through March. * IMO no drastic changes in sea temp anomalies * split pacific jet projected to continue, allowing Atlantic to dictate * models showing cold, blocked beginning April should continue to build Greenland high which will throw the cold over Northern Europe. There will be mild spell mid month. Perhaps going cooler again and then mild again like the pattern through March. Cold spells not intense enough to deliver the record breaking low CET. CET a shade under the average, 7.3C (-0. :lol: .

This is my Spring Forecast. * March Summary: Cold turning milder to the end of the month. The cold start to March should continue. The third week should continue the dry Greenland blocked theme with below average temperatures and dewpoints and risk of snowfall for all overnight. In the last week it will get warmer in the south as Azores High makes a brief presence to the south and west only the furthest North missing out on the highest temperatures. March will be below average temperature wise and on the dry side of precipitation. CET: 4.7C Rainfall: 95% Sunshine: 95% April Summary: Cold bright beginning, turning wetter later. It will feel a cool April compared with the warmth of recent times. Indeed the risk of widespread snowfall from polar air will plague all and surprise a few before the first weeks of the month are out as a number of trofs work their way across the north sea. Snow will not be a countrywide event and temperatures in west will be too high for lying snow. Overall rather drier than average first two weeks, as one would expect from a partially blocked set-up and the Azores High not yet in full dominance (although making its presence clear in the west and the other parts of the country between arctic pulses). This colder, brighter, drier first half will all give way to noticeably wetter (and warmer) weather as the month progresses and spring really makes its mark. By the end of the month rainfall and temperatures will end up either side of the average. CET: Either side of average Rainfall: Either side of average Sunshine: 105% May Summary: Cool at times, hot in the sun. May will in many ways be unremarkable this year. Refreshing westerly winds, strong at times as we leave April, will bring considerably wetter than average weather for some (flooding risk looks certain to be an issue in the usual places), interspersed with warm sunshine for the rest. Unfortunately the possibility of a High pressure block in the Atlantic cannot be ignored in the middle of the month. This will augur a change to grey clouds, rain and frankly dismal weather at times; though the East may be spared the worse by trofs bringing winds from a drier, sunnier continental direction. As we go into the final week things will settle down nicely and warm up nicely with a steady feed of air from the south and thunderstorms in places. In the west and north, further from the continent, it will cooler due to winds from a more northerly and westerly direction but they should too bathe in the much welcome sunshine. CET: Above average Rainfall: Above average Sunshine: Below average *This Spring Forecast is brought to you in association with AtlanticFlamethrower's private weather company Super-Secret Weather Forecasting Formulas Inc. This company is dedicated to the task of researching and producing my forecasts for me so you know exactly what is happening in the world of weather for the months ahead.

kold weather, //Just about everything Af// What? It seems to me "continent needs to cool down" is one of those phrases people say without thinking what it actually means, if anything. I'm sure you must have an idea what you mean, - soil temperatures, I suppose, would be higher than normal on continent after a run of modern winters. However I'd reply that during most modern winters you still get frozen soil and snow in Europe. Is the continent that hot or is it another factor that means air temps are too marginal for snow here by the time it is blown our way on Easterlies? I'd thought if the source of the cold is intense enough cold will dominate regardless of latent heat sources on the continent. And I'd still like to know which "heat sinks" you're referring too, if not continental european soil temperatures. Stratos Ferric, // However, whilst well within bounds (though unlikely) as a singleton, if we stack the data up to look at two year changes in temperature, then the requirement for us to get down to a 1963-like winter would be for a two year winter drop of 4C. This has occurred only three times in the CET record, the last time being 1963. It is possible, therefore, but against temperatures that are now about 1C higher on average acros the year such a marked drop becomes unprecedented.// The chart that plots winter (Dec - Mar) +/-s is interesting viewing, thanks for posting it. The plots to the NE I suppose are mostly from recent winters and ones to SW from older ones. First, what I find incredible is the existence of winters that were over 3 degrees warmer than the year before that themselves posted a frigid D-M average of only 3 degrees! However sadly, the plot suggests to me our coldest winters support the "surprise hypothesis."* Rather than an "incremental cool down" as kold weather is suggesting, the 5 winters you chose to name show cold can come out of the blue. They were 2 degrees out of whack from the previous year. *Edited to add, on further reflection I don't know what I'm talking about. The plot might suggest the best that is possible is -2 from previous year. Which is kind of incremental and kind of a surprise. 2004/2005 = 5.7 C 2005/2006 = 4.2 C (Feb at 3.6C, March at 4.5C, the 1996 figure) Current estimate is that this D-M will be -/+ of 1.5 degrees from last year. Is this likely to be about as cold as it gets in the even larger teapot? Is the blue vertical line your estimate of the best even larger teapot can achieve (4 degrees)? I think this would be my view. The cool dip on a warming curve is the most attractive explanation for this winter and I'd expect at best we could if we get more like over the next few years is a 1996 winter. This is not because continental Europe has sources of latent heat that need cooling, but because on Earth there is more heat in the atmosphere/oceans making smaller and smaller pocket of cold air at the poles to go around winter times. That's my own view, willing to look at others and change my mind. Little more exciting than possibility of more snowy winters.

What do you mean by this? What on the continent needs to cool down? - forests? - soil? - cities? - north sea? - lakes? - mountains? (larger glaciers?) Etc.

In Edinburgh. Snizzeling steadily. Lightest covering on cars. Snow sort of melting on pavement then freezing. If it gets heavier perfect set-up for few inches here! Woohoo!

Living bang in the south east here - give me 4 weeks of Bartlett high and I'll still say it's a decent winter. Used to getting nothing from Northerlies and where I live the PPN from North easterlies fizzle out before it gets here in deepest southern Essex. Easterlies are the only chance this region gets of getting lying snow and though what we got was pitiful, at least we got something we wouldn't have got in another year. Highlights then - November frosts, spectacular indeed because of the hard crusty white ground, and the December 28 2005 snow, which deposited 2 centimetres in an evening. This snow event was arguably better than Feb 2005 because the ground did not turn green a couple of hours later (due to the time the PPN fell, at night not the morning) and I got to make a mini-snowman (in the dark!). The next morning was a white sea of slush. I recognise it is a staggeringly poor winter for much of the British Isles and it's been a let down for the east too, my heart goes out to London, but by my staggeringly low expectations in this staggeringly dry (drier than Lebanon), if cool part of the country this year, just one overnight snow shower makes the winter something to remember. If I want anything more I know I'll have to move to Kent, or Norfolk. :huh: My very personal opinion.

Thanks for that, Paul. Peak behind the green curtain always interesting. Do you have any more details on each run? Or can you confirm it's as sesnow1 listed above.

You make an interesting statement but I'd have to agree to disagree with you. With more data you've potentially stronger agreement at longer range but conversely if your methodology (the way the data is collected and put into the model) is not watertight more errors creep in to the model and make that extra data a hindrance rather than a help. You can overload a shopping trolly if you see what I mean. This might be why the 12z is best regarded on this site - satellite data is probably the most accurate source of weather info we have, the major sources of error on thie 12z run presumably confined to shipping data which involves human readings and presumably ever changing positions of the ships. You can't data cut indefinately without losing details and long term accuracy but maybe if shipping data was removed from the 12z the trends would not be much less easier to spot.

Sorry if I'm widening your page with this image. I think it's self-explanatory. Look at the warm as well as the cold - the coincidence is quite impressive. Maybe I'm telling something you already know, but in summary: I think I'm heading down the bookmakers for £10 on a white christmas

Am I finding faces in clouds or is this star-shaped? Anyone know what causes it? http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~gumley/modis_gal...55.143.250m.jpg