Long time thread reader, first time poster.
I was just wondering how people can brush the various models, charts and experienced input from posters under the carpet and simply say nothing more than it's a hunch or gut feeling. I'm not singling folk out here as the gut word is peppered all through these various threads but it begs the question what are these comments actually bringing to the table?
If a hunch turns out to be correct and you've not actually based it on anything then what has it proven? and how can we learn from it when there was no reasoning behind the decision! Would a bank manager give you a business loan if you just turned round and said i've got a hunch it will be a success? No, he'd want a detailed business plan first, besides, are we not all here to learn/enhance our weather knowledge or just out for the "i told you so" when our gut wins for once.