Premiere Neige
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Posts posted by Premiere Neige
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4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:This is a substantial shift in modelling from the 18z so I'd very much like to wait until the ensembles before judging but this extends the blocking far further than the last few runs have managed to.
In terms of snow detail, honestly couldn't care less at this stage, that will chop, change & new features will pop up seemingly from no where. The low in the middle of next week was always expected to go into France and miss the UK, been saying this for days now.
I'm not even sure why people are getting hung up on the snow charts for 7 days time (not you Met) when it most likely won't turn out like that. Watching the local BBC forecast this evening and the presenter (Paul Hudson) said that snow could not be accurately forecast until 48 hours away....maximum. Will be leaving it until next week before I start taking an interest in what's being modelled in terms of snowfall...
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11 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:
OK so it's supposed to be turning cold from this Sunday?! So why isn't that shown in the temperatures on the BBC website? Even met office is slightly colder than BBC. Confused.com
Go with met office. BBC website/app is a waste of webspace. Although you will likely see the temperatures adjusted down closer to the time. My experience of the BBC app is after about 5 days they generally just show around the monthly average temperature wise...
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32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
I don't pay a blind bit of notice of him.
Sorry if that sounds rude but i used to be on that forum and,well...
If I remember correctly, he loves a mild ramp...
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6 minutes ago, knocker said:
It warms the cockles
Hopefully this is the temporary relaxation that has been mooted. Don't need this sort of pattern hanging around for weeks. The ground is already sodden....
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Just now, TSNWK said:
True.. but we used a fair amount of contingency to avoid a different pattern... not much left in the bank on the 12z
Maybe just run to run variations on a theme. The next run might return to a much smoother path (hopefully!)...
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11 minutes ago, Kentspur said:
Remember we were due a white Christmas 2years back then this happened I wonder what effect it may have this time on the models?
Not sure solar flares have that much affect on our weather. We are protected from what is ejected from the sun by the magnetosphere. I may be wrong but that's my understanding...
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4 minutes ago, LRD said:
EC46 headline - consistent.
Positive height anomalies still showing to our north-west throughout most of the run and even appearing over Scandi into Feb. I know pressure anomaly charts can be misleading but it still looks pretty good
Ties in with Tamara's thoughts from yesterday (I think it was yesterday.....lost track of the days over the festive period). Anyway, she mentioned heights shuffling between Greenland, Iceland and Scandinavia as I recall...
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Just now, Daniel* said:
To illustrate day 11 on EPS 00z and latesr 12z notice how similar they are and blocking near Greenland is even stronger.
Looking very much like the charts many of the long range forecast models were churning out through the summer and autumn...
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4 minutes ago, Cambrian said:
12z ECM ensemble mean days 5-10.
Yes. Good, clean separation of the two lobes of the PV, the Canadian lobe moves off west, the Siberian lobe holds its ground.
A build in heights to establish the high pressure over the UK and Ireland, the heights subsequently extending north through Greenland to join with the Arctic high.
Plenty of scope for the northwestward retrogression being scoped in the clusters. Little point looking beyond this timeframe at the moment.
Very interesting developments for early January.
Thinking back to winters such as 2013/14 many of us would have snapped someone's hand off for mean charts like these and as you say, plenty of wriggle room for the higher pressure to push further north!
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2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:
Hmmm
PV split potentially back on again? Go on then, why not! The chaos will send some in here over the edge I fear! Happy New Year folks!
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Just now, Chasbrown said:
Actually all the models seem to be showing a definite swerve away from cold weather. Whenever cold appears in the charts it simply never verifies. As others have said it never counts down to arrival, merely being pushed further away. You would have thought that with all the computing power they'd be capable of nailing something down. And where has the SSW gone?
"A definite swerve away from cold" could also be defined as a wild swing in output could it not? It may all change on later runs or tomorrow...
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There are a lot of experienced contributors on this thread. Several of these contributors have warned over the last couple of days that due to the turbulent nature of what's happening in the atmosphere that there would be wild swings in the model output. Seems this information has not been absorbed by some.
We may get zonal......and we may not. It is unclear at the moment. What is clear is that January is still to be decided so don't reach for the prozac just yet!
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14 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Can't download the photos? ...?
I'm in South Yorkshire. This morning I was getting the kids ready for school (hence no photos and I'm kicking myself)......from the kitchen window my 6 year old son spotted what turned out to be 2 rectangular areas of blue sky in an otherwise grey sky. Where the grey sky met the blue sky on each of the 4 sides of these rectangular areas was like looking at a rainbow. I wish I'd got a photo as my description is awful and it's the weirdest thing I've ever seen but the kids were driving me mad!
They were kind of like 2 rectangle shaped "hole punch" clouds with rainbow colours around the edge.
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1 hour ago, johncam said:
If you look at start of Jan in the latest models same old, high to our south , low to our north.
Because they won't have factored in the potential ssw yet?!
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21 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
Firstly folks I would like to say a massive thanks for all the well wishes I've received from many of you over the loss of my best mate and dad. I showed them to my mom and she was genuinely moved. Its given me a lift that so many show so much care and sympathy during difficult times. Your an amazing bunch and I really hope you get all the rewards you crave for.
For the weather I said a while back that backend of December next month could change. And I'm seeing from a few ens that the pv could be about to be displaced maybe even a split....I feel your pain regarding the way things have gone wrong for this latter part of this month....but do remember we are not alone...The USA has been very mild and largely snowless also!
No downgrade from Exeter regarding colder conditions perhaps becoming more likely next month. We have plenty of time and I feel the pattern will be completely shook up post Xmas.
Once again...much love guys and gals...you've cheered up this rather sad individual right now. And I will continue to try and inject a positive vibe into this gr8 thread.
Sorry to hear your sad news @MATTWOLVES 3
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5 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:
GFS looks to be odds on for this warming at the end of its ensembles at present but I can't say the same for the GEM although it has some interest in another way
Here's the 4 best GFS 12z warmings
+4C
+8C
These are at the warmest end but the main warmings appeared to peak more around -12C on the 12z
The GEM has NO warmings showing at all but what is interesting on the GEM 12z is the number of ensemble members that are really stretching out the cold temperatures at the back end of the runs. I have included the 4 best ones below
There were several more members doing something similar but slightly colder than these ones. These look close to splitting the vortex despite no actual warming showing up.
The GEM is a weird one. Like it's being displaced without anything really to displaced it!
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7 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:
-22/24
Cheers mate!
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2 hours ago, TwisterGirl81 said:
It’s been fairly sunny here and felt mild at 15c/61f
Wish it was last weekend again with a covering of snow!
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1 hour ago, raz.org.rain said:
GLOSEA suggesting a very mild January apparently??
It is. Not sure how though looking at the strat forecasts...
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15 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:
Tidbits version
How far up the scale does the deepest red on that warming go please? (I'm colour blind and struggle big time with reds). Cheers!
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3 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:
Probably shouldn't be speaking about booze considering how hungover I am, but...Jameson is dire!
What you want is a good peaty Islay. Lagavullin or Jura for instance. Cannae beat it.
I'm not really a whisky fan to be honest with you. I prefer rum...
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Just now, Wold Topper said:
Whiskey
The devil's creation. I can manage Jameson's but not scotch or bourbon.
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1 minute ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
I'm no better I'm Christmas shopping on Amazon lol.
I set up a mini weather station today. I got it on a fete stall last year and forgot I had it!! It reads in the indoor and out door temps. Only cost me a few quid! lol
It reads 2c colder than the local station some dude has a mile away ...
Don't ask me how to send complaint emails to amazon!
Great stab at trying to get the conversation back on topic. Netweather might have put me on the naughty step by morning for derailing the thread. I've managed to stay off it for the last 4 years as well!!
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Moans, ramps and banter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Tom Quintavalle I wonder if Nathan Rao is a real person being paid an actual salary?
If he is, he has the cushiest job ever writing works of meteorological fiction for this so call newspaper. He's been recycling the same rubbish for years. Give it 3 months and he'll be writing about how "Brits are set to bake!" Don't forget to change from Celsius to Fahrenheit when you start to write about hot weather Nathan. Looks more sensational.....as you know!!