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Premiere Neige

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, raz.org.rain said:

    My first time getting proper drunk was with straight whisky, almost finished the bottle too. Needless to say I haven't touched the stuff since and even the smell knocks me sick, it sure was fun when cheap sanitisers were turning up left right and centre!

    Luckily I can't stand whisky. I'd hate a whisky hangover! The time I drank too much vodka was about 3/4 of a bottle. On top of lager. I won't say how much. The over exuberance of youth 🙂

    • Like 1

    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

    Are we sleeping on the sofa tonight?!

    I'd probably get a better night's sleep if I did 😂 Sorry for late reply, I've just had to talk my mum through the intricacies of sending a complaint email to an online retailer. Why she needed to send it at this time on a Saturday night is beyond me. Sorry....what were we talking about?  What thread is this again? Something to do with weather isn't it? 😂

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    Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Bristle Si said:

    Hmm....but it's not the heat, it's the prolonged dry spells that aid the arsonists OR error re a barby out of control (for example).

    If we had 2 months of dry weather in Summer, but temps of say 23c max every day that would create the tinderbox conditions, just as much as only 10 days of dry and temps of 34c every day.

    Several farmers fields caught fire here in July 2022 which weren't caused by arson or barbecues...

    8 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

    Everyone getting tipsy, I haven't had a drink since last Christmas incidentally. Went way too far with the vodka and haven't looked at it since 

    I remember doing that when I was about 20 (26 years ago 😭) and it was 2 years before I drank vodka again 😂

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Downburst said:

    The ECM MJO for Day 10, the mean line is now above the COD area for phase 6, whereas yesterday and a few days before it flirted with below. So phase 6 period is adjusting and it it continues we might see more towards the end of the GFS runs at least and perhaps shortly the 10 day ECM. Remember the higher the amplitude the more skill the forecast has historically, so maybe once the next 5 days finish we might get more consistency. 

    image.thumb.png.57dfe20e0fd5c44308fc89169ea4ac98.png

    In saying all this, I am thinking, at least at the surface, that Canadian (+10c and corresponding Siberian -10 c temp anomaly this week is so strong, one has to wonder surely that will have more effect than anything else? 

    image.thumb.png.1f7383be1fa828e223419b5a9c92e19f.png

     

    Also, over the last few days the 10hpa anomaly over the pole has really strengthened each run for 1st week of January. Although I won't hazard a guess (mini ice age end of January 😂) how and when that might effect us, especially so far out from even happening, but that's a strong signal all the same.

     

    image.thumb.png.da25b6870bae6efa0d4f2d53e7f6507e.png

    I know that 3 weeks is usually quoted as the lag time for the effects of an SSW to be felt.......trouble is, we can't tell if we reach SSW (+50°c) on those charts. 

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, WYorksWeather said:

    A couple of hours ago got a very small fresh accumulation at my location - just enough to cover e.g. road surfaces. Not settling on house roofs though, which shows how marginal it is. Probably about half a centimetre.

    BBC forecast has sleet at my location in the next hour or so, turning to snow later this evening and heavier overnight. Will be interesting to see if we have a more significant accumulation by morning.

    Wouldn't bother with BBC. Woke up to a covering yesterday morning which wasn't forecast on their app. Currently snowing and settling but they have sleet all night for my location on their app.

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Premiere Neige

    Before everyone (of a cold persuasion) starts slashing their wrists.....the long range modelling showed little in the way of cold for December. I consider what we've had this week as a bonus. If we're going to get sustained cold this winter, it was always looking more likely in January and February (and March).

    Edit: It also pays to remember we're only on day 2 of meteorological winter. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

    The age old saying here.

    The crowd are on the pitch they think it's all over!

    Wo wo wo...get them off the pitch this is far from over!!!!!

    Classic battle ground set up in the making! Amazing set up considering where we are meant to be heading....its early but this is becoming a strange one...

     

    .

     

    ECH1-240.gif

    Some people yesterday (and earlier) were calling an end to the cold spell and  I was thinking they were jumping the gun a bit. Didn't say anything so as not to cause an argument and derail the thread. We have seen the models chopping and changing so much over the past week. There is too much volatility to call the outcome yet. FI is about T72 at the moment! 😂

    • Like 12

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

     

     

    Thanks guys. The frustration of scientific papers that are behind a paywall and you can only read the abstract and first page. The abstract says "The stratospheric warming and circulation change of January and February 1963 are discussed.......    ........warming initially appeared at 10mb over southeastern Canada.......  ......the subsequent events..... .....destruction of the wintertime polar cyclone......"

    And the last sentence of the first page says "Beginning in mid-January 1963 the stratospheric circulation was interrupted by intense temperature and height changes of a scale as large as any previously documented".

    I concluded the Canadian warming was early January, leading to a full-blown SSW late February, but I'm happy to accept that the Canadian Warming was in November, leading to the above in Jan/Feb. Have you guys got a source of info to confirm Nov 1962 please? There are precious little scientific papers on the phenomenon, although last week Prof. Judah Cohen stated he was involved in a study, so that's good news.

    Whatever, for those of us with a cold persuasion, let's keep our fingers crossed that this Canadian Warming has a similar impact to the winter of 1963.

    On Gavs Weather Vids during last years winter updates he talked about it and did a reanalysis section (can't remember which model) but the Canadian warming was definitely November 1962.

    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

    Too add to a rather somber forum for cold lovers, Meteorological Autumn starts on Friday, that's 3 months of potential cold, but March often delivers Wintry goods too, so a whopping 16 weeks of Winter to come, relax and sit back and enoy the Winter roller coaster ride as there will be many new twists and turns. 😨

    *meteorological winter 🙂

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