Jamie M

Lovely and bright at the pole

Bit close for comfort this morning - never actually got an electrical pop before L20230620175217118 (online-video-cutter.com).mp4

Lovely stuff - it'd be 5 years in a row that we've had NLCs on the solstice

Definitely is, that's a couple minutes in the car away from me - gutted I missed it but you can see where the shelf's edge would be on radar

Can tell it’s nasty from here

Just about miss here

Lindenberg has em

Incredibly faint NLCs on the Flensburg cam early this morning OSWIN & Wales radar both showing echoes for today so let's see

Kaluga 54N 36E

That's a stunner

Dud across the board by the looks of things

Lovely lightning

Day 2 Convective Outlook VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 18 Jun 2023 - 05:59 UTC Mon 19 Jun 2023 ISSUED 21:20 UTC Sat 17 Jun 2023 ISSUED BY: Dan A broad upper low will remain to the west of Ireland on Sunday, with a relatively high Theta-W airmass (>16C at 850hPa) covering much of the British Isles. A shortwave trough migrating northwards on the eastern flank of the upper low may provide the focus for scattered elevated showers or thunderstorms across parts of northern and eastern England on Sunday morning, the focus then shifting to W/SW Scotland by the afternoon. In its wake, a humid airmass persists (dewpoints 17-19C) which, coupled with subtle forcing aloft, could still generate semi-random elevated showers/thunderstorms throughout the morning and early afternoon, this perhaps most likely (but far from guaranteed) over East Anglia/SE England. Depending on the extent of this activity (and associated cloud cover/rain-cooled air), this may have ramifications as to how the rest of the day evolves. Otherwise, fairly extensive high cloud is anticipated across much of England and Wales, but sufficiently thin/broken in places to allow a degree of surface heating through the day. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface temperatures of 21-22C will be required to erode SBCIN, and so given the moist boundary layer it seems plausible scattered showers may develop fairly readily with CAM guidance indicating initiation over the Midlands and southern England from around 11-13z onwards. A weak surface low is expected to develop and slowly deepen over central England during the afternoon, with increasing low-level convergence in the vicinity also aiding forced ascent. Later in the afternoon a more robust vorticity lobe, emanating from NW Iberia early in the morning, will approach southern England and the synoptic scale ascent associated with this will encourage thunderstorms to grow upscale during the late afternoon and evening hours, initially into an MCS across the East Midlands and western East Anglia, but eventually a larger mass of heavy rain over northern England later in the evening. Forecast profiles appear very moist, yielding rather tall but skinny CAPE, which coupled with PWAT 30-40mm and approximately one third of the convective cloud in the >0C layer contributing to efficient warm rain processes, suggests the potential for significant rainfall accumulations - perhaps locally in excess of 40mm in 1 hour. A SVR was issued primarily for the risk of flash flooding (especially where multiple cells train/backbuild over the same area), and to a lesser extent for isolated ≥2cm hail given a favourable kinematic environment for updraft/downdraft separation and cell organisation, this perhaps most pronounced across the north and east Midlands into East Anglia where the low-level winds will be most backed on the north/northeast flank of the surface low. These areas will also have a slightly higher chance of an isolated tornado given substantial low-level directional wind shear and progressively lowering cloud bases through the afternoon. A trailing line of thunderstorms may affect other parts of East Anglia/SE England during the evening hours, linked to a substantial bowing segment that is expected to form over NE France - although much of the lightning activity associated with this feature may remain over France/English Channel. Elsewhere, numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop across Ireland once again, likely already feeding into southern coastal counties in the morning and expanding in coverage further inland/to the northwest with time, where the environment will be supportive of 1,000 J/kg MLCAPE and 15-25kts effective bulk shear. A SVR was introduced here for the risk of isolated large hail 2-3cm in diameter and local surface water flooding. Additional showers/thunderstorms are also likely during the afternoon and evening hours over mid/north Wales, NW England, W and SW Scotland, before these eventually merge into the broader area of heavy rain developing over northern England during the evening/night. Ahead of this feature, it is possible a few elevated showers/thunderstorms could develop over the North Sea and feed into eastern Scotland during the late evening, but confidence on much in the way of lightning with this activity precludes higher threat levels at this stage. Finally, during the overnight period a scattering of showers may feed into Wales and SW England from the Celtic/Irish Seas, perhaps producing the odd isolated lightning strike.

Might be going mad

There's some incredibly faint NLCs on the Ettelsberg cam in the top left corner if I'm not going mad

700 hPa winds from AROME

Let's see how these do

100% chance of cloud here

Nearly retired after someone got a bioluminescence, aurora and NLC combo along the coast near Broadstairs a couple of days ago

Not sure if the author of this website is on Netweather but the post they made about that storm has some fantastic pictures! Supercell Thunderstorm Over Bournemouth - July 3rd, 2015 - WildSkies.co.uk WWW.WILDSKIES.CO.UK

We can always hope for a cheeky thunderstorm and NLC combo

The instability is

Of course when the cloud arrives