Jamie M

Neat shelfie

Haven't seen anything from underneath it but radar sure does show it's nasty as well as the sheared anvil

6z AROME soundings for 1500 UTC reveals upwards of 2500 J/kg here

Very nice shot from London earlier

15z AROME sounding has possible cloud tops of around 9.3 km (30k ft)

Pileus caps on convection out to sea, already had rumbles through here today. Multicellular line stretching from London to Herts at minute

Think @Nick F is in France at the minute

Storm has exploded into the sea, saw a small funnel cloud across the Estuary but it went as soon as I crossed the road and had my phone taking pictures

It's alright my mammatus cravings have been satisfied

Untitled (1).mp4 1629 BST

The Eastbourne special

The discussion from that in relation to here: ... SE UK, France, BENELUX, W/S Germany, Switzerland, Austria, N Italy ... Due to the large differences among the NWP model simulations, this is a highly uncertain forecast. Decided to go for a broad Lvl 2 to cover an area where the environment is most favorable for intense and well-organised convection. Morning hours will likely start with one or more elevated clusters over N France and BENELUX. Moderate shear above the boundary layer and 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE may result in isolated instances of large hail. The remains of the elevated clusters may later become foci of surface-based storm development as the heating destabilizes boundary layer. This scenario is depicted by some high-resolution, convection allowing models, yielding convective windstorms over S Germany. Towards the afternoon hours, models simulate a pronounced overlap of high CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and strong shear (25+ m/s in 0-6 km layer) acrross central to N France, perhaps reaching up to S Belgium. The highest CAPE is forecast along the boundary between a very well mixed and rather dry airmass advected from S and more abundant low-level moisture to N. The exact position of this boundary and its evolution differs from one model to another. Therefore, this has to be tracked during the day to establish more precise location of the highest severe weather corridor. The lack of clear forcing from either the cold front or other synoptic-scale features makes it difficult to predict exact timing, location and coverage of storms. Some of the high resolution models show initiation of storms over Massif Central and their progression towards the E with high risk of severe wind gusts due to the well mixed boundary layer combined with 0-3 km bulk shear around 15 m/s. Towards the evening hours, isentropic lift due to the warm-air advection will likely initiate further storms N of the boundary. These will rapidly become elevated supercells or bow-echoes with threats of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Towards BENELUX and NW Germany, CAPE will decrease and mostly skinny CAPE profiles are foreast, reducing the threat of large hail to some degree. Still, the risk will be present with elevated supercells, as well as isolated risk of severe wind gusts. The highest coverage of storms is forecast during the overnight hours. Both here, and over N France, 0-1 km shear is forecast to increase towards the night, but the storms will likely be elevated, reducing the tornado ris

Distraught that intense carnage isn't carried out

Disgusted and depressed my windows won't be smashed to bits

So close but yet so far

UKV 18z ..

Can't wait to hear that Canterbury has been sucked up by a tornado

warning out

12z UKMO is certainly going for it

13487235_258942274471913_125102370_s.mp4 Some 1 am lightning from that storm, think the 25th was quite stormy as well iirc

Warm in the sun, nice coastal breeze. Shame it's gonna go to pot tomorrow

9z AROME however

Now if it could shift north a tad bit more

Willing to nab my slight chance at anything

Want my heavily sheared rain and I want it now