Jamie M

The discussion from that in relation to here: ... SE UK, France, BENELUX, W/S Germany, Switzerland, Austria, N Italy ... Due to the large differences among the NWP model simulations, this is a highly uncertain forecast. Decided to go for a broad Lvl 2 to cover an area where the environment is most favorable for intense and well-organised convection. Morning hours will likely start with one or more elevated clusters over N France and BENELUX. Moderate shear above the boundary layer and 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE may result in isolated instances of large hail. The remains of the elevated clusters may later become foci of surface-based storm development as the heating destabilizes boundary layer. This scenario is depicted by some high-resolution, convection allowing models, yielding convective windstorms over S Germany. Towards the afternoon hours, models simulate a pronounced overlap of high CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and strong shear (25+ m/s in 0-6 km layer) acrross central to N France, perhaps reaching up to S Belgium. The highest CAPE is forecast along the boundary between a very well mixed and rather dry airmass advected from S and more abundant low-level moisture to N. The exact position of this boundary and its evolution differs from one model to another. Therefore, this has to be tracked during the day to establish more precise location of the highest severe weather corridor. The lack of clear forcing from either the cold front or other synoptic-scale features makes it difficult to predict exact timing, location and coverage of storms. Some of the high resolution models show initiation of storms over Massif Central and their progression towards the E with high risk of severe wind gusts due to the well mixed boundary layer combined with 0-3 km bulk shear around 15 m/s. Towards the evening hours, isentropic lift due to the warm-air advection will likely initiate further storms N of the boundary. These will rapidly become elevated supercells or bow-echoes with threats of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Towards BENELUX and NW Germany, CAPE will decrease and mostly skinny CAPE profiles are foreast, reducing the threat of large hail to some degree. Still, the risk will be present with elevated supercells, as well as isolated risk of severe wind gusts. The highest coverage of storms is forecast during the overnight hours. Both here, and over N France, 0-1 km shear is forecast to increase towards the night, but the storms will likely be elevated, reducing the tornado ris

Distraught that intense carnage isn't carried out

Disgusted and depressed my windows won't be smashed to bits

So close but yet so far

UKV 18z ..

Can't wait to hear that Canterbury has been sucked up by a tornado

warning out

12z UKMO is certainly going for it

13487235_258942274471913_125102370_s.mp4 Some 1 am lightning from that storm, think the 25th was quite stormy as well iirc

Warm in the sun, nice coastal breeze. Shame it's gonna go to pot tomorrow

9z AROME however

Now if it could shift north a tad bit more

Willing to nab my slight chance at anything

Want my heavily sheared rain and I want it now

18% of the average for sun at Margate, 81.8 hours is horrific

Missing out on that shear is just painful

Am sure we'll be happy to know that AROME brings nothing to the UK

Was in Broadstairs earlier and absolutely packed

Was very surprised that the electrics didn't trip, grandparents on the other side of town had their electrics go even though they were further away

Have to make the most of these days

Can concur it's been fairly sunny continually since about the 9th albeit with some blips

Saw the Red Arrows 3 times, on their way to and from Folkestone and then on their way back from Eastbourne in the evening. Typhoon buzzed over twice and there was a Spitfire thrown in there at some point as well, reminded me of the airshow here that hasn't been on for 6 years or so

Aye it really is quite good although there are small errors on some figures etc but it's good for a general look at things in the past and what went on even if it's a bit rough around the edges at times

Had a couple of visitors from the airshow here Anyway to make it weather related it was definitely warmer than I was expecting today as I've not bothered checking models all too closely, 26.4C maximum

Video of the storms