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Jamie M

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Posts posted by Jamie M

    Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

    ESTOFEX level 1

    image.thumb.png.a25e01619cf6023073620a6c79bdfd5b.png

    The discussion from that in relation to here:

    ... SE UK, France, BENELUX, W/S Germany, Switzerland, Austria, N Italy ...


    Due to the large differences among the NWP model simulations, this is a highly uncertain forecast. Decided to go for a broad Lvl 2 to cover an area where the environment is most favorable for intense and well-organised convection.

    Morning hours will likely start with one or more elevated clusters over N France and BENELUX. Moderate shear above the boundary layer and 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE may result in isolated instances of large hail. The remains of the elevated clusters may later become foci of surface-based storm development as the heating destabilizes boundary layer. This scenario is depicted by some high-resolution, convection allowing models, yielding convective windstorms over S Germany.

    Towards the afternoon hours, models simulate a pronounced overlap of high CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and strong shear (25+ m/s in 0-6 km layer) acrross central to N France, perhaps reaching up to S Belgium. The highest CAPE is forecast along the boundary between a very well mixed and rather dry airmass advected from S and more abundant low-level moisture to N. The exact position of this boundary and its evolution differs from one model to another. Therefore, this has to be tracked during the day to establish more precise location of the highest severe weather corridor. The lack of clear forcing from either the cold front or other synoptic-scale features makes it difficult to predict exact timing, location and coverage of storms.

    Some of the high resolution models show initiation of storms over Massif Central and their progression towards the E with high risk of severe wind gusts due to the well mixed boundary layer combined with 0-3 km bulk shear around 15 m/s. Towards the evening hours, isentropic lift due to the warm-air advection will likely initiate further storms N of the boundary. These will rapidly become elevated supercells or bow-echoes with threats of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

    Towards BENELUX and NW Germany, CAPE will decrease and mostly skinny CAPE profiles are foreast, reducing the threat of large hail to some degree. Still, the risk will be present with elevated supercells, as well as isolated risk of severe wind gusts. The highest coverage of storms is forecast during the overnight hours. Both here, and over N France, 0-1 km shear is forecast to increase towards the night, but the storms will likely be elevated, reducing the tornado ris

    • Like 5

    Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, LightningLover said:

    Food for thought- I recall 22-23rd June 2016 had a rather similar set up to this one coming, wherein it's more of a boundary between a warm humid airmass and cool northerly as opposed to a plume with a long fetch southerly. That event was one of my favorites, as it gave Hastings (where I was living at the time) a solid 13  hours of continuous thunder and lightning from training convection- and a large, channel filling MCS during the early hours of the 23rd to boot! I'm sure @SenlacJackcan vouch for that!

     

    Some 1 am lightning from that storm, think the 25th was quite stormy as well iirc 

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - August 2023

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by Jamie M

    15 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

    Nice, apart from for the ears of course. Wasn't to bad the electric stayed on lol. Had a black out for about a minute after one of those a few years back. Loud was an understatement too.

    Ouch.

    Was very surprised that the electrics didn't trip, grandparents on the other side of town had their electrics go even though they were further away

    Summer 2023 chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, SunSean said:

    August 1st-20th sunshine!

    Dear oh dear, what on earth is going on at the Isle of Wight?! Normally in the top 3 but currently languishing in the bottom quarter for August 2023!

    West Midlands & Lincolnshire are gatecrashing the East & South East sun hoarding lol. Guess Hampshire, Buckinghamshire & Isle of Wight didn't get the invite though!

    All in all, big improvement for the East & South East comparing to July however there are some counties that are carrying on with the gloom!

     

    Could contain:

    image.thumb.png.3ca41f25759c5a6d804a116124f8be11.png

    Can concur it's been fairly sunny continually since about the 9th albeit with some blips 

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 1

    Summer 2023 chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

    Just out of curiosity dies anyone here use the excellent site owned by Trevor harley? I'd suggest people do as it's really good.    

    Aye it really is quite good although there are small errors on some figures etc but it's good for a general look at things in the past and what went on even if it's a bit rough around the edges at times 

    • Like 1
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