Marting

Gowon I would say heading in a fairly consistent way towards a block to the north, this suggested strongly on the meteogram this morning . Turning colder again, although like all models a rapidly changing position (SSW related) so we watch with interest

Dennis This ties in nicely with METO extended outlook just published out to day 15, snow showers from east. Meets ECM and GFS roughly in terms of way forward

ECM ensembles showing a fairly cold picture out to day 15. Winds turning easterly and the maybe north eastern later

I was actually thinking the 18z is looking flatter at 66hrs, temps no real difference

ECM as expected at the top end of its ensembles. 15 dayer stays below verbal the way out

Ali1977 Let’s hope so. Pretty sure ECM at the top end of its run when we view in an hour

Something holding up that stalling low pressure at 144 on ECM. from hero to trouble between 96 to 144. Will it move on at 168? Edit, not a lot!

ECM ensembles for Liverpool, painting a cool picture. Operational run often at bottom end, not quite on its own

The ECM ensembles are becoming rather chilly and fairly concentrated on the meteogram

ECM giving quite high confidence out at day 10 on the meteograms

Quite a big shift in the ECM average at day 10 tonight, vortex shifting to scandi akin to gefs

Yes, agree the signs building for the scandi ish high pressure in 2 weeks time. A trend to watch in the Gefs

Quite a lot of blocking in the Gefs post 300 (FI) hours, worth a look and one to keep an eye on over next few days to see if the firmer pattern develops. Low, mid, uk based and scandi all showing tonight

I completely agree with the hints of a temp drop as many of the gefs runs showing scandi high development out in FI. I will expect an op run to show this in next 36 hours.

Just goes to show that things can flip quickly in the models and so I suspect tomorrow they will look vastly different again. You only have to look at the ECM 46 dayers and how yesterday was predicting 6c below norm on Monday 22nd, not looking quite as likely. However, who knows what is around the corner, well the professionals maybe, so eyes down for next chase starting tomorrow