[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

I lot of us have been saying for a while that there is a huge amount of bottled up cold, it doesn’t take much to release it in our direction as per the 6z, it may all flip back on the 12z but it makes it more interesting than the 21 days of anti cyclonic dirge we were seeing yesterday! 
 

Also, I’d like to understand the drivers that continuously shove the vortex back over Canada despite it being pushed, pulled and split apart.

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

As the name says we’re hunting for cold in this thread, looking at the 12z the best place to find cold would be in your freezer in the next 3 weeks! Indeed, anywhere south of the M62 looks being devoid of anything of note in the same timeframe!

The vortex is roaming that quick it seems that as soon as it leaves Canada it’s back, supercharging the jet in the process!

 

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

FWIW I’m pretty sure for the next few days we’re going to continue to see huge swings such as this on the 6z

To this on the 12z

 

Both bring cold weather but different routes!! Exciting model watching times indeed!!

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

We’ll hello!! Where are you going???

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

FWIW without really digging into the archives I think we’re on route to cold from an unusual direction. We seem to chase the with the beasterly every year, this comment may not age well but I can see a good old fashioned winter period coming!!!

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

This has to be the biggest let down winter wise IMBY for a long time, we have a fantastic set up but everything that could go wrong to scupper it has! I think we’ll be lucky to get a covering I think!!

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Everyone needs to calm down, the North Sea snow machine is kicking in a lot more than seems predicted!!!!

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

This euro4 chart for Sunday reminds me a lot of the precipitation radar on 1 March 2018 - showers merging into longer spells of snow.

Euro4 chart for 10am Sunday:

 

Radar from 1 March 2018:

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

7 minutes ago, cheese said:

This euro4 chart for Sunday reminds me a lot of the precipitation radar on 1 March 2018 - showers merging into longer spells of snow.

Euro4 chart for 10am Sunday:

 

Radar from 1 March 2018:

That is textbook sea effect streamers all the way from the Baltic!! Areas close to Pennines will get buried with the longevity of the flow!!!!

Also, if it’s showing that now out at this range the confidence must be high as an Easterly flow normally delivers more than expected!

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

4 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

I have noticed the warnings from the Met are saying mainly light snow showers which surprises me some what.

I think it just demonstrates the current unpredictability, once things get going the warnings will soon appear!

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

An improved set of GEFS for my location - cold is in by 72 and more cold members at 192, showing a trend to extend the cold.

And for our northern friends, these are for Manchester - even colder! 

The for those in the north east - sweet baby Jesus 

Just when you think it can’t upgrade again!!!

[Model output discussion 24/01/21]

There’s charts lurking but I refuse to get drawn in yet, I’ve had my heart broken too many times!!!!

I hope I’m wrong but I can sense a horrible, horrible twist in the tale that will leave some on here truly suicidal!!!

 

#reverse psychology!!!

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

34 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Those snow charts are Load of old tosh.

I’d say it got it pretty much bang on today!!

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

3 minutes ago, topo said:

Exactly!!!

Can't really get it.. Minus AO, Minus NAO, SSW all these combined and the weather maps look horrible with rain even in Oslo or Stockholm!!

Maybe after all all these indices, SSWs, are overestimated

Or maybe it’s a very rare combination of events that the models have very little experience of handling and the same goes for the human input element as well.

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

You have to laugh don't you?

Two days ago it was modelled as an Ice day

So what’s to say tomorrow it won’t show 3ft of lying snow!!

Everything’s a bit bonkers at the minute with what is happening high up!! I’m just strapping myself in and enjoying the ride!

[Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?]

We shouldn’t really be surprised by the major changes we’re seeing, what with all the volatility in the air! The second warming is well under way so that’s probably causing the issues!

Allowing the run to run changes to affect you is a one way ticket to a nervous breakdown!!

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

I’ve stayed away for a while to heal my shredded nerves but looking at the GFS 12z I can’t believe the differences even at 3-4 days! I think we’re still in with a shout of some serious cold!!

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Wrf showing a good few hours of snow overnight into Friday. Leeds, Sheffield and Manchester take note.

If it’s anything like this week it’ll just be cold bloody rain!!!

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

9 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This is what will probably happen after the ssw filters down . Same year in year out now . Terrible model outputs today

That’s about as bad as it gets for us, a supercharged jet firing straight into us!! Thanks god it’s so far away!!

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

T96 will feel pretty cold

That’s a huge understatement!

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

34 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Ensembles show a less pronounced rise in temps towards the end compared to 00z. A few colder options in the scatter.

 

As the pieces start to fall into place in the next 24-48 hours we’ll see this improve and steadily head downwards!

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

13 minutes ago, fromey said:

I think a few need to stand down, put there toys back in the pram and read @carinthian post, watching the models at the moment is like watching a drunk person trying to pin the tail on a donkey. 
 

Spot on comment, but I think the donkey is drunk as well!

[Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

We seem to have a lot of posters on here falling into the trap of commenting on the massive swings in each run and react accordingly, this is the quickest way to a nervous breakdown.

Many moons ago a well respected poster said to compare runs, I.e yesterday’s 6z with today’s 6z for a better idea of where things are going! I don’t know the science behind the runs but it does seem to work!

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

I know it’s deep in FI but another couple of frames on this would eclipse anything we’ve been seeing! It is a definite possibility though as it’s a signal that keeps popping up on different runs, perhaps the SSW??

I don’t think dew points would be the discussion then!!

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Last winter we were seeing charts like this in “La La Land” if at all! Most of us would have sold our soul for a flurry let alone what could potentially be on offer over the next month or so! 
For me the signals are there for a winter of epic proportions but unfortunately due the location of our little rock it could also fall flat on its face.... and that ladies and gentlemen is why we do this to ourselves every winter!!!