Empire Of Snow

I wouldn't rely so much on GFS ppn charts. Amber for both rain and snow I meant. Sorry I wasn't clear enough. They issued an amber warning for 5cm last time..

Good morning all. Spent some time last night checking almost everything, latest runs, charts etc. It's really a nightmare forecasting tomorrow. As it stands all areas will start with rain. North Yorkshire (Leeds and places North of Leeds) roughly above 150-160asl should see rain turning to snow around 7am/8am and possibly the snow line will gradually go down to 100asl. System will move on a turtle pace so areas with snowfall will possibly see significant accumulations especially over 250asl. If we don't have any downgrades today with milder air pushing in with the front I would expect an amber warning issued by METO this afternoon.

Snow stopped, sleety drizzle now. Thursday is a tricky one. We might have 10-15cm or just heavy rain.

Moderate wet snow here. Big glakes.

Unfortunately I think METO has it right for Tuesday and Thursday. Tuesday any wintry ppn will be over 250asl with sleet maybe in lower levels under heavier bursts. Thursday will be all rain unless something changes drastically.

Yes we had already 2-3 decent events, I wouldn't mind a couple more though (or 5-6 more). I avoid looking at these automated weather apps. Last time we had 15cm and METO was showing heavy rain in nowcast.

The usual nonsense from the METO automated system. Pivoting is taking place in East Midlands, even with a slight further north extent there is no way heavy ppn will reach Leeds area. Hope I'm proved wrong but I can't see it happening.

Light snow now but there isn't enough energy and intensity behind this band of ppn.

Very stormy now with gales and on/off snow as this band of ppn moves across North Yorkshire.

Mostly dry with a few showers maybe but nothing significant. Medium to long term looks bad this morning with further Atlantic systems and no blocking. That's from GFS, I'll try and check the other models runs later.

Heavy rain but temp is dropping faster than Mane and Fernandez combined.

Rain and fog here with very poor visibility. Temp should start dropping in a couple of hours. Let's see if we manage to get anything better than light sleet later but I can't see DPs falling below zero.

Light snow here now. Just small flurries though.

It was always meant to be a quick snow to rain transition event. In nowcast the system moved way too faster than it was expected. METO just raised the expectations with an illogical amber warning. I wouldn't judge so much the METO warning if it was for a weekday morning with heavy commuting but for a Saturday under (supposedly) strict lockdown and just a few people working it was at least unrealistic.

Morning! I guess the ppn missed our area overnight? Snow coverage is almost intact, most surfaces our frozen, some dripping on the edges of the roofs.

Is it the front that reached west Ireland now the one we're waiting tonight?

Made the mistake again to tell the children about the chance of snow tonight. This means they will be up at 4am like last night..

I'm definitely waking up at 3-4am if there's a possibility of heavy snow! Especially from an Atlantic system full of moisture!

It's inevitable that will turn to sleet or rain later in the morning but the heavy ppn comes early hours overnight. This is where we focus for 3-4 hours of heavy snow especially at higher ground.

Morning all. - 4.6C now. Every single surface is frozen even the top of the accumulated snow. Tonight after around 1am is very difficult to forecast. The METO automated system shows several hours of heavy snow here but it's not that simple. Cloud cover from the evening will prevent T to drop under clear skies so it will be extremely marginal when the front arrives from the W. I expect DP to rise as the system approaches but maybe Kasim and other members can enlighten us further about other factors that might come in play.

15cm approximately at 179asl.

Yes some heavier bursts here too.

I was under the impression that it stopped but it's still snowing quite steadily.

Roads will be very dangerous tomorrow morning as temps will drop down to - 6.

Getting better here loving it Leeds at a standstill.