Empire Of Snow
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The GfsP further south scenario isn't ideal for south areas. It will reduce almost 50% the ppn and only South Ireland will see some decent accumulations.
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It will probably hint for Easterly deep in FI but I would only bank the weekend upgrade in this run. After this is a bore fest
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Yes there was a scenario of a possible snow event Saturday night into Sunday for the East/NE/SE. Canadian vortex is more aggressive in this run, pushes the Azores high initially to ridge over UK and then flatten east. Possibly will lead to NW conditions again, milder for sure unless things change dramatically at 192+. Bad run so far.
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Wind is picking up here, means that ppn is incoming. Feels colder the last 10mins. It will surely start as light rain. Hope it intensifies quickly for a better chance of snow later.
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DPs are way too high for both W/Mids and E/Mids. Leicester 1.8 DP..
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I will never understand why so many people care so much about some automated weather symbols on METO, BBC, Accu etc. It's all down to nowcast. Check your T, DP, Theta-W, ppn radar.
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Are you sure your DP is -1.5?
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Let's hope next week will deliver a good snow event. Meanwhile, Bulgarian-Greek borders: http://weather-webcam.eu/bansko-parking-dolna-stancia-pirin-live-kamera
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Most models runs are very promising Matt. Still the 22nd of January, February can deliver. Surface wind direction just changed to NNW but winds won't pick up because the anticyclonic conditions are way too close of UK. You might get some PPN later tonight at Stoke though.
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METO weather symbols are automated. There's no human input. Imagine if they had to pay individual employees to update manually every single town or city.
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This must be the first Northwesterly without any proper wind.
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I think we're right on the edge. We might just miss the whole thing.
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They'd better grab some driver clubs, we want snow here also.
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Theta-W is at 2.
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Wind direction is still SW in East Midlands which kept the T a bit lower than expected. We don't expect anything than rain tonight though as DP are above 0 C.
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Another Icelandic LP unfortunately doesn't let the high to establish North mid Atlantic.
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As it unravels 222h onwards will be exceptional.
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Northeasterly incoming earlier unless there are significant changes in the Atlantic later in this run.
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12h evolution on gfs. 114h 12z similar to 06z 126h.
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Azores high ridging slighter more NE at 90h in this run. Let's see how it unfolds.
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I expect almost the same run as 06z regarding gfs. Pattern seems pretty consistent now and imo better to forecast. Some minor changes to LPs won't modify the pattern.
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Another positive aspect is that Gfs historically has good verification even in FI when the Azores high is reaching the heights of UK. That said, we need the small horizontal ridge of it eastwards as an initial block to the cold pool in NE. Impressively Gfs spotted first at 300h almost all latest beasts of cold into the southeast Europe(Balkans, Greece, Turkey) with slight corrections west or east.
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Anyone have a feeling that FI will verify this time or is it just me? We're actually having cross agreement of most models at a large time frame which doesn't happen often. The Azores small ridge eastwards is beneficial and I can't see right now how it's possible after this to miss a Northeasterly. It seems that we can be attacked by cold by both directions, northwest and northeast. Fingers crossed.
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FI is dreamland in this run.
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180h another LP at 980mb West of Ireland will mess things more. Possible Easterly set up after it slides? Nope, it's moving NE.
