Empire Of Snow

Nope. 0%. Next week maybe.

Light snow now out of nowhere.

I've just read the METO yellow warning. Is the wording there for real? First of all, I don't mind at all experts issuing warnings. But they need to be careful with the words they use to the public. Treating the taxpayers, other professionals or whatever like toddlers is unacceptable. This is also not an one-off thing. The past few years is more and more obvious and it's happening in other sectors. I'm disappointed to see this from the METO and especially for a non event of maybe 2-3 showers of sleet/snow.

Red warning incoming?

It was the Beast from the East.

It's not accurate by default because it's a long term possible assessment. It's not a forecast. METO's wording is wrong. They're saying long range forecast. My "forecast" is different and it's also based on the same scientific parameters with certain scientific twists.

I really can't see where this optimism comes from, especially in the MOD thread. We'll have some colder, dry weather from Saturday onwards, just for 4 days ordinary cold conditions for this time of year. After this spell we're 100% going back to milder conditions for a few days and afterwards the chances of snowy, very cold weather are slim imo because of a more dominant Azores high. I hope I'm completely wrong though.

Reached around 7-8cm last night as it was snowing steadily for 6h. This is the 3rd year in a row Atlantic/western based systems provide better snowfalls in our area than the eastern/northeastern ones.

Our snow "event" occurred again from WSW via more organised systems. Otherwise we would still be waiting for a shower to reach us from the NE and last around 15min. Ofc this setup doesn't benefit the south of the country.

Moderate to heavy snow now.

-1c here mostly because of full snow cover and persistent fog. It would be nice if we had a couple of hours of big flakes but I see the DPs are rising unfortunately.

They're struggling to forecast the next 24-48h. I reckon the signals for later and especially as we're heading mid month are all over the place.

Fog helps bringing down the T. -4c here, no fog at all despite the useless METO symbols stating otherwise. METO has a minimum of -5c, it will easily go down to -7c imo.

Almost every single model has a different outcome for tomorrow night. What's going on? We can't even have a somewhat reliable forecast at 24h? What's more bizarre is the Netweather forecast for Sunday giving us highs of 7c! And 10c on Monday!

Which cold do you mean, surface or the cold pool in the NE? Surface cold, especially prolonged one, can play its part with systems like the potential one this Sunday. On the other hand even a strong -20 850hpa cold pool can be eradicated quickly by Atlantic systems.

I'm more interested in the potential Sunday system rather than this constant RSH (Radar Shower Hunting). Too bad even less than 48h away forecasting is a mess.

It's not just silly, it's on the verge of illegality and against the principles of journalism. Sorry for the off-topic but it's outrageous how these "journalists" are getting away with everything.

I really can't see anything unseasonal. There have been many years after 2000 with this deep cold in the NE. The majority of times an Azores ridge brings this cold towards SE Europe. Also back in the late 80s and early 90s mid December was the most snowy period for SE Europe at low levels. We need a proper blocking to get anything from NE and this is not in the cards right now unfortunately.

There's some unexpected activity in terms of intensity in the NE according to the radar. It is unlikely it will make it further inland though.

It's too early. There's a chance for more activity around midnight and a possibility some showers to reach further inland.

You're not wrong but it's like groundhog day with these posts. If you go back to the same date last year you'll find the same comments. There goes the myth again about "get the cold first and snow will follow". Truth is every single parameter needs to be perfect in these setups to have decent snowfall in this island. Unless a dusting in 12 houses south of Whitby is considered a snow event nowadays. The other fact is that even a strong cold pool in the NE can disappear completely in 48 hours in this continent and we'll see this happening by the end of next week. Hopefully we'll see a reload around the end of December.

I wish I had your optimism. In my opinion nothing will come up from this setup especially inland. Maybe a few showers in the NE. It's the same setup as last year. It will be just cold and dry until the Atlantic kicks in, probably mid next week.

I really don't mind everyone posting and expressing their opinions based on each run, this is the purpose of that thread. But there are always fellow members overestimating the cold spells just for the sake of it, just to bring some positivity. "Oh, there is a huge cold pool in NE Europe, things are looking good". All these members forget 2 major factors, the Atlantic and the Azores high. Most of the times there's cold in our NE, deep cold. To get a portion of this cold over here we need a proper blocking and still snow events are not certain. There are so many parameters that need to go our way it's like playing Euro Millions and expecting to win. This is the case for Midlands and south of it especially. That said, I'd rather have Northerlies or cold Northwesterlies with proper organised lows coming in, maybe on the marginal side yes but this again me talking about my back yard.

You have to know who to follow and read in the MOD thread otherwise it's very chaotic and infuriating at times. I even find myself checking the location of posters first and then scrolling quickly to the next post. I know it sounds a bit bad but it happens. Regarding the cold spell or spells I'm just waiting for now for a more reliable timeframe. As it stands I can't see anything significant ppn wise, it looks like a repeat of last year with the early season cold spell back then. I'm not a fan of showers though, if a proper low or sliding low is on cards I'll get more excited. The majority of good snow events up here happened with organised systems.

10bf gusts, around 95km/h, and only a yellow warning? It should have been amber for sure?