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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I know it shrinks when it’s cold, but damn, this thing is so small, can’t remember to have it this small at that time of the season… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wait for the clusters and then see, that there will be at least 4 to 5 different outcomes. So even EC is poking around in the fog… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Tomorrow is a new day, 4 gfs runs, 2 EC… no need to get mad today, swinging back pendulum it is -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All this longterm hocus pocus is just 500hpa, ten-day-range, and that’s it for me… weather is still a chaotic thing, not predictable in long range… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
To be honest, December never was a fully winter’y month (at least the last years), more an extension of fall… so glad to see that January and onwards looks to be cold… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
00z hangover after 18z Pubrun? -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The yanks do this already -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EC Control, too, as it renders 15 days ahead (op only 10 days) -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Light at the end of the tunnel -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I’ve been looking at model outputs for many years now to know, that things can change within only a couple of runs. Even when all seems to be stuck at boring weather, this just can be the pendulum being in the middle before it swings back to action… the tPV is messed up, the overall patterns are the best since years, so it’s just riding the “mild” wave and see what’s on the menu afterwards -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Those ssw announcements fooled me a lot in the last years. Even the record one with prolonged reversal didn’t deliver anything enormous winter’ish. Better stick to 500hpa charts in the 10-day-timeframe… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Because! -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EC 12z -> -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I said sometimes! Sometimes I went out with a “Ferrari” and woke up next to a “Lada”, to say it in your words this year, the odds for more winter’y weather are the better than the last years… more colder with short mild intrusions -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
EuroHigh shifts into scandiHigh, BFTE comes along with Uncle Santa Hopes die last… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
And then the gates to narnia opens… patience is needed by a few here, outcome can be epic around xmas… -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can you point out wich jet you mean? I only see fragments of it… as posted earlier by me -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well, we all aren’t living in a favourable spot for prolonged cold and snowy weather, and climate change is doing the rest. my hopes remain that the El Niño effect will affect us in the later season. Again, as long as US/Canada remain “warm”, and the PV and the jet aren’t doing as they should do, everything is on the menu. sometimes the chase is more thrilling than the actual outcome (at least for me) -
Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
Vikos replied to MATTWOLVES 3's topic in Forecast Model Discussion