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    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Some quite extraordinary goings on at the moment !

    The models really are making a mess of the current set up . The ECM seems very bullish now on weakening the low and taking it further south .

    The ECM ensembles are even interested in solutions even further south. 

    A cluster now showing London remaining at negative 850 values throughout at the time of the infamous low tracking through the UK . 

    This wasn’t the case on the 00hrs run .

    The UKMO fax charts continue to have the low deeper and further north than the raw output .

    The mystery deepens around this ! 

     

    Why is that? Is this just off the basis that the Metrologist who does the FAX charts, isn't really buying the trend south and strength?

    Or is this looking more like a fail from them?

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well well well.

    I did say there will be south adjustments, and if we are pushing it. I think even more south adjustments may occur.
    Also, *maybe* models are also underestimating precipitation. Happened last night for example. Models had barely anything and reality was.. It was a much bigger and more precipitation than it thought.

    I think things have just got more interesting.. Will be interesting to see ECM control once it's out! On to the 18z!!

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Londonweymouth said:

    Seeing snow is a bit pointless if it’s dark and wet, hardly worth seeing, accumulating snow is unlikely away from higher ground, in fact some models don’t even produce snow on higher ground in the south east, I think it’s going to be a case of a bit of overkill tbh 

    Surprises can happen and also we had a decent snow event in early December! Can't be greedy.

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, DJ Fart said:

    Agreed. Nothing more than a slush fest on offer for the South East, but it was never really looking like anything else. Think I'll take a break from here for a bit and look forward to warmer weather. The NIMBY ramping is getting really tedious, despite mods repeatedly asking people to stop it.

    You might see some snow based on your location. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, DAVE_ALLEN said:

    So the very latest thinking from the met offixe correlates nicely with the T36 fax chart as w head into Wednesday night.  
     

    the heaviest falls seem to match the track of the low over head with west and East Sussex, parts of Kent, Surrey and the Home Counties seeing a good covering of snow by dawn on Thursday. For some reason hampshire and further west is more of a complicated wintry mix. Maybe because of the less cold air mixing from the west as the low passes. It’s very fine detail here. Even 30 miles south would change these areas to snow. 
    CC7A2175-5ED3-438B-9CEA-057FA5C89741.thumb.gif.d78491bb3e88b9ab4e13382420fc3f54.gif

    Then for Thursday night. The second low tracking into the borders brings in a much larger warm sector which needs to be monitored closely. Image shows sectors for ease of reference. 
    Could contain: Land, Nature, Outdoors, Person, Sea, Water, Head

    To the north of the warm front into Scotland could see some very large snowfall totals but much milder air a little further south will see a thaw setting in. But for how long. As further cold air is back in the mix for the weekend and beyond.

    Could contain: Nature, Outdoors, Sea, Water, Computer, Electronics, Laptop, Pc

    Could be Amber in that outline you've done. Especially if its more intense than modelled and slower to leave. One to watch

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, EML Network said:

    Iove how everyones ignoring this.

    going to be some upset people IMO come this time tomorrow.

    Snow falling onto wet ground, with temperatures above zero even overnight and dew points wrong side of marginal.

    im expecting rain here if it snows from the outset ill be pleasantly surprized

    I'm confused? Main event is mainly Wednesday Evening.. Also that's the ICON. Hardly credible.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, BLS said:

    Afternoon 

    I think with the Icon joining the ECM and Arpege shifting Wednesday system north you will see it start to bring it south again over the next few runs! Got a feeling that was just showing how far it could go lol

     

    i think some areas such as Oxford, SW London, Surrey, Sussex, Hampshire and maybe Kent could see two events of 3-7 cms tomorrow.

     

    we should know more with the model runs later tonight and around 9/10pm maybe it will all start to firm up when the low comes onto the radar for the morning maybe.

     

    Models will be very interesting but still expect a slight shift south from either to models or in real time.

    You forgot Essex 😉

    • Like 1
    • Insightful 1
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