MATTWOLVES 3

Yep...talk of a Canadian warming coming sooner rather than later...would be nice to keep the bulk of the PV away from that sector. Mogreps continues with a fair bit of clustering towards the colder zone. Just to think the only time us Winter chasers want to hear the words warming at this time of the year is when it involves the strat. Otherwise its a banned word

The focus and attention builds and I think the real deal could focus later next month. Gem hints at that PV being put under huge stress...noticed the strong build in heights around the Urals. This is a precursor to disruption of that blob of doom. Either way I feel this place could be getting excited....frustrated....euphoric...depressed....agitated....angry....anxious...and perhaps all these emotions on the back of every run in the coming weeks...And you know what silly season starts a week of Friday...God help you...God help me...someone save our souls Oh @Mike Poole I just love it when you put a summary of the current state of affairs and current models together...whether it be Summer or Winter you always do such a sterling job.

Better late than never and the 1st of the early season to get the party started. The idea guys is the pattern becomes more and more interesting...and this run could be gr8 with a few adjustments...but being as your all perfectionists know doubt you will be saying the uppers could be better and there's a lack of snow within the flow Hey folks things have been that bad lately i would put out a boom for a slight ground frost

At last we have something a little more seasonal like coming up for the weekend into next week,with temps perhaps below average and Frost a high possibility,especially under clearer skies. Where next? I'm not really convinced this upcoming cold snap will be the start of something more severe at this stage. And in all fairness I'm not the biggest fan of severe or prolonged cold in December,as I've seen it ebb away to nothing come the new year...the backend of December yes...but not the whole month. We even witnessed that scenario during 2010,when the rest of the Winter turned out poor. And more recently we had the same scenario last year after a cold December. I'm thinking it's going to be towards the final 3rd of December when something more of note appears. There is some interest in the ens regarding better heights as we move into the new month but also a good many that show a rampant PV ruling the roost...im sceptical of scandy Heights when a strong pv is setting up shop towards the NW,as this process will nearly always power up the jet and erode those Heights towards the NE. But there does appear to be some signs of favourable Heights around the urals which would put that strat under pressure. The general set up from a teleconnections point of view would also favour a better 2nd half of winter and for me personally,I feel the strat will take a hit and possibly fall during the earlier part of the New Year. Yes I've referenced the background drivers in this post which in all honesty I find very interesting and love to read about them...my only gripe with some was the fact that they are not set in stone,and they do not guarantee you a set outcome...ie..a favourable mjo cycle can fail to bring about blocking as a strong PV will counteract it. And the variables at play here are huge....yes the drivers lead the NWP...so when NWP keeps chopping and changing its more than likely due to the fact the drivers are giving misleading signals,and the possibility that other variables are coming into force. This is why weather is such a complex phenomenon. So finally we fo colder and more seasonal and I'm sure many of you will take that at this very early stage. Take a walk in the park with the kids or the grandkids and breath in some colder fresher air and if your like me wear a pair of shorts,a vest and buy an ice cream And finally I really do feel this Winter will deliver some wintry goods but my focus turns too later in the festive period. Have a sterling time whatever your doing.

Latest news from me...I've got the very latest from the teleconnections I've also just got some news from the boys at Exeter...Mogreps 12z show some decent cold clustering for the next 7 days

I'm liking this tbh..look at the difference with the corridor of heights in between Greenland and the Arctic.. This certainly ain't a zonal onslaught and it appears to me to be correcting itself slowly after getting the evolution wrong in the first place. I'm waiting for a huge high to form so a few can come on and say it must be broke,as the teleconnections do not back it up!

You know what amazes me on here folks? Some start congratulating themselves on there forecast before that said outcome has even materialised! Well fair play to ya if you know the outcome regarding sypnotics in the UK with a million and one variables at play. I'm pretty sure some of you are hoping for a mention in the Kings honours list come Xmas,or better still a blue Peter badge Hey you lot take a look at many of those ens from the 6z...looks like a pretty messed up NH too me. We go colder by the end of the week and out of little acorns grow big conker trees ok I made that one up. Let's bring it home...The snow the cold the Euro 24 the Eurovision song contest.....the whole lot...I mean business

Wow your going to scandy...we never new you should of said I think 24-48hrs will be required to nail the pattern down. I feel colder towards end of next week and much more seasonal with Frost on the cards for many...perhaps some snow further North,but a bit of uncertainty on how long the pattern could last or if its just a glancing blow. But I feel things could be setting up for repeated attempts as we move further forward! While I'm at it folks I will say enjoy the weather what may be coming up and remember it could be a precursor to something much more favourable down the line..no point in getting stressed or falling out with folks over things going wrong...it is what it is and will constantly make mugs of us all! Enjoy your family and make memories...and hopefully some of those memories can be made in the snow.

Heart felt sympathy for you and family mate..my Dad suffers both parkinsons and Dementia and some days,and those days are growing more frequent...he's chronic. Awful illness and I so hope and prey they could make a breakthrough with both these conditions. My heart goes out to all of you who are experiencing such problems,and at this time of the year it really hits hard. I've got some tears rolling down my cheek as I write this message,cause it really hits it home. God bless ya mate and hopefully your mom will now be free of suffering and embarking on a new journey. Sorry mods for taking this off topic.. peace and goodwill to all of ya and your family's.

Or some are taking the teleconnections as gospel! Cast ya mind back a few years ago when the met throughout the winter period spoke about relentless blocking and winds from the NE and East...and the end result was mobile! The background drivers they were seeing pointed to that scenario,but the weather had other ideas....if I had a quid for everytime someone has said to me on twitter the drivers look good for this Winter only for nothing to come of it i would be very rich. And for me this why LRF as failed to come on that much over the years...there are so many variables at play in a warming climate that it makes it harder than ever before! Just a quick glance at how mid Summer played out when the experts were talking about frequent heatwaves tells you the story.

Straight up folks...some tasty ens from the 6z...theres nearly as many gaps as space between my ears appearing on the NH locale. Wouldn't a nice cold snow ladden Xmas period be lovely,just like the ones me ancestors used to talk about

And a wedge wedge here and a wedge wedge there...here a wedge there a wedge everywhere a wedge wedge...old gfs trumps the ecm..e i e i o.... A winter of unexpected dramas beckons folks

Just before I go I would like to say that teleconnections are not always telling of what kind of weather we will receive. Many a time mjo cycles have been primed to deliver blocking and its failed to deliver anything! Remember a few years back when positive teleconnections were scuppered by Indian dipole..times when increased sunspot activity as also brought down a positive position..times when a great set up and weak Atlantic had been blown away by a cold plunge from Canada to the mid states and has served to fire up the jet! So many variables at play...and sometimes the weather Gods just say this...sod the mjo and circle of death...sod the GWO and the coupling of the strat we are gonna deliver to you what we see fit...like it or lump it. And I reckon if this cold snap comes off...we will still have some coming on here to say...I just dont get it!! The background drivers do not support such an evolution! So.many ens show such a messed up PV and an Hemisphere that looks primed. If we don't get lucky this time folks...then trust me it's only gonna be a matter of time. Sweet dreams you lot

You know what I'm sick to death of ECM and how it's so called king. It crashed the other day cause its lost the plot and went into meltdown when it saw the GFS evolution...now its in a flap knowing if it backs down now to GFS its gonna be hurting for ages.. GFS 18z rules the NW Atlantic sector as far as I'm concerned but struggles in many other areas...but I feel its got this and ECM is getting concerned. Even the penguins are in a flap. Folks its on...Trust me I'm a Doctor...DR Who? No just the doctor

First of all a big welcome to @Dennis aka pv forecast on X...he knows his stuff and hopefully will bring some of them winter festive goods from Norway. Gfs still looks solid this evening and UKMO ain't bad...ECM has other ideas but I feel theres more water to go under the bridge just yet. It should be all sorted out by Monday I feel. Also after checking out the met update there is mention of colder snaps in the flow but uncertainty over how far South and for how long etc..So while we all scratch our heads on here it appears they also have a bad case of dandruff also And to finalise mogreps hint at colder conditions within there suite for good measure. But tonight we await to see which model is the closest to the final outcome,but this is just the start of many head scratching moments to come for the next several months. But I'm just not feeling a full on zonal onslaught for this upcoming winter period...im confident we will land on some very interesting periods as we move further forward. So thats goodnight from him and goodnight from me. It's now time for the completion of the Dr Who box set... I could go on and on but I do tend to babble and I don't want bore ya

Well it's Saturday and the drama continues. Gfs still remains steadfast,UKMO brings hope and ECM remains a festive killer...perhaps the uncertainty around the NH is causing a little confusion and background drivers can at times become muted to other variables now being in force...folks we have reached the times when you can expect the unexpected,and not necessarily that current drivers will be concrete nailed on factors! This place is gr8...nick sussex has just returned after a long hibernation and hits us with the shortwave almost instantly...lol..glad to have you back nick lad and hope ya well...and our legend Shaky is so excited he's going for a 5k run...now most folks would take the I pod music player with them..but i reckon Shaky will have a laptop taped to his head so he can watch the 6z roll out..folks are gonna think your losing it mate.. Absolutely love it...legends the lot of ya. Eyes down for plenty of entertainment from the weather gods this coming season..and I feel there will be interesting times ahead. And just to mention those ens show a NH that looks confused and primed with options a plenty. Bring it on...

So next week we could be looking at a chill from a Nwtly...maybe some Frost and wintry showers for some. But for me the focus will be on early next month with early indications of the PV being stretched...pulled dismembered...all at sea...call it what you may,but a glance at those long range ens show the possibility of the Vortex becoming very restless and agitated...and when something gets very agitated it finally goes pop...dont you just love my analogy! My confidence grows on something in the making next month...keep ya ears and eyes peeled folks... A wicked and beastly weekend to you all. Live it large. Lol...gif cracks me up everytime. .

The mood is a tad sombre in here today...why i don't fully understand,yes the PV ramps up in the days ahead but rather now than later I say,with 2 more weeks till Winter proper arrives! Some hints from some of the output of the PV becoming stretched as we move towards the months end! Also discussed by Judah from good old USA. And you know what folks? My great gran always used to say this.....Matthew dear boy if you keep stretching at something long enough it will eventually break or fall off! She had a good point though even though she wore her slippers as earrings. Eyes down for some action with the strat by months end. Keep the faith a cool head and await the potential developments. A sterling day to all of you.

Perhaps a little bit of stress being placed on the strat as we enter further into December. This is along way off but for me would be an ideal time for the PV to take a hit around Xmas week for instance. I'm not really expecting any fun and game for the rest of this month and the 1st part of December..but perhaps things could liven up towards the 2nd period for sure! Take a deep breath folks we don't want Winter coming in hard late November and blowing itself out a couple of weeks later. Patience is key and its January we want to see the real goods!

I think you should all call me a doctor or get the straight jacket...its the time of the year when I go bonkers and lose the plot! It may be to late too save me now folks....

Can I just steady the ship a little here folks. Firstly the EC46 drove everyone up the wall when it was only being issued 2 times a week,now its become daily its gonna serve to make a fair few heads fall off! 2ndly there seems to be far to much emphasis on the Exter updates by some and please remind yourselves how badly wrong they got the mid Summer period wrong and multiple other times they've been barking up the wrong tree! They are not messiahs with all the answers...they can only go on the global drivers with these long range forecasts and these drivers change on a very regular basis. Look at this way last Winter started positive with cold conditions locked in place for early December...but look what come next! It all fell apart as we moved beyond Xmas.. this year looks more set up for colder conditions too become more probable beyond the Xmas period. So absolutely know point whatsoever in getting highly strung over conditions in mid November. And don't be thinking Exeter have all the answers all the time,because they clearly do not! Take a deep breath and relax...NWP will throw up many scenarios in the coming weeks,and at times it will be miles out.

I've read back numerous posts from the last couple of hours and those of you are merely just enthusiasts, i scratch my head in disbelief how some of you are not fully paid professionals! Pretty amazing stuff from some of you and your education and knowledge is immense! This forum is blessed and a wash with talent...make know mistake about it. Now let me put a simpletons term on it all...for those of you who may have missed school and skipped classes alot....and ended up in multiple detentions...yes me included GFS says let's bring Winter as we move into the Xmas month. And trust me next month will be flat out and non stop for many...and for some of you it will be a time of sadness for numerous reasons..dont worry folks I'm always here for a shoulder to cry on. I feel this Winter we have hope and there could be a fair few suprises...bring it on guys and gals.

Don't look now but the Easter bunny is landing in the TPV! Mid Atlantic Heights making a push for Greenland and it would be well hello Winter,come too papa... And don't get to downbeat over met updates...firstly the Summer forecasts were appaling and secondly you will find a completely different write up every several days or so! They will want concrete evidence and for it to come up and bite em on the @rse before going all in on a cold snap. Happy Sunday folks and even happier hunting.. the chase is primed.

Long time no speak my lovelies. To sum up things just lately I would say pretty boring! But today I must admit as brought a nip in the air with tomorrow promising the same,with perhaps a touch of Jack Frost in the air. Next week could bring a change to more unsettled and at times windy conditions....booooooooo..we've seen enough rain around these parts just lately to last us another year! Hang on....ECM shows promise moving further forward. The PV looks stretched and not really sure where to take up residence...and just look at the cold pooling towards the NE...I feel we could be facing a big change in the conditions come the big month! The touch paper has been ignited..boooommmmmmm....the countdown now begins...this is the year we finally get out just deserts! This is the pep talk you've all been waiting for folks. Live it large and have a sterling Weekend folks..just to think give it a few more weeks and the inlaws will be round and the weather will be the last problem on your minds

Hi chaps and lasses...a stormy period of conditions are likely over the coming days with some areas seeing quite severe impacts...temps will warm up a tad the next couple of days before dropping again towards the weekend. So I would just like to point out to my fellow netweather lovelies to take care during the next few days of potential abrupt conditions..mother nature can bite you on the @rse when you least expect it! And to quickly mention that a little birdie tells me that further into November a higher incidence of Blocking and Estly winds are possible! It could be the met!!! But I ain't saying Let's get ready to rumble folks...the countdown will soon begin.