MATTWOLVES 3

Doesn't end to badly tbh..and I feel we pull in a Ntly towards towards the end...a little model volatility creeping in right now which is to be expected...would very much like to see the ens and clusters before making full judgement.

Mate I've been over this post numerous times and apart from the blocking towards the NW I can't make head nah tales over it. A mass amount of drawing and charts and something about phase 3. No disrespect to your style of posting but a good many who are learning are going to really struggle with this.

I would say that next week going on the met update keeps the lows away! It points at some snow on Thursday before colder Nthly winds bed in for next weekend and the following week with plenty of sleet and snow showers for exposed parts! So severe frosts could be possible here. And for me to bed the cold in for a week or more will greatly enhance our chances for the next bout of milder incursions. No mention of milder air getting in now during the first part of the update,yesterday it stated increasing likelihood of milder Atlantic conditions getting in early December. Looks pretty good in my eyes folks.

Just nicked this from X...SSW risks ongoing...imagine this cold spell being followed by a large strat hit with even more significant wintry conditions to chase it! I mean what a good time it would be for the strat to fall next month. Lots going on it appears and its a watching brief for now.

Once again a tight cluster of cold runs on thr 6z mogreps..several days back to back without any massive spread. I've also included Northern Ireland for good measure which stays cold,and I was looking perhaps for a hint of milder air trying to push in from the West! And the Plymouth ens which also remain cold so at this stage no real push of milder air from the South either. Ps...just noticed for the first time ever I've got a couple of insightful icons to my post...I've got my serious head on today folks...and that can only mean one thing? Poor forecasts Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4958934

Once again a tight cluster of cold runs on thr 6z mogreps..several days back to back without any massive spread. I've also included Northern Ireland for good measure which stays cold,and I was looking perhaps for a hint of milder air trying to push in from the West! And the Plymouth ens which also remain cold so at this stage no real push of milder air from the South either. Ps...just noticed for the first time ever I've got a couple of insightful icons to my post...I've got my serious head on today folks...and that can only mean one thing? Poor forecasts

Hang on a sec folks let's not call anything on the back of the gfs 6z run..certainly not game over! Remember the other day when some started losing there heads over the poor 18z run? The next run was much improved and all of a sudden folks got there mojo back. Expect run to run differences on a volatile situation,and keep a keen eye on the ens and clusters before making a call! And over the space of a day or 2,not on the back of 1 run. Ecm and UKMO solid and you all keep saying how a cold spell won't happen if ecm ain't onboard..and that gfs does not matter so much yet the panic that sets in after a bad gfs op run is drama at its best! We are in a good place this lovely sunny Weekend. Enjoy it my friends.

Worth a read if you've missed it regarding El nino winters and the negative NAO...evidence suggests it could mean even more negative phases into the New Year. Jumping the gun here but I feel this Winter could be one that lasts in the memory,along way to go bit signs look oh so good.

You might be laughing now mate..but you won't be when the hotel give ya the electric bill. Seriously enjoy yourself mate..Locked in cold around those parts for quite sometime now,and now we see signs of it making inroads towards the UK.

Ec zonal winds! Is something a brewing!

You should.of said mate..we had no idea

Solid them continues with the 12z suite...not very often you see such a lack of spread over several runs..I would say going colder looks odds on...the big question will be snow! And that's gonna be a nowcasting situation. Strap in and enjoy the ride..and have a beer on me this evening folks...I raise my glass to all of ya for doing such a sterling job these last few days. Rumour has it the met have been headhunting these pages the last day or so!

This 12z run is cleaner than the 0z run..The heights around Greenland are much better here..Get the cold locked in for a few days and watch for the development of surface cold bedding in...Not worth getting stressed over 850s at this range.. but again for several days running we ain't seeing the models do what they normally do and completely backtrack! I just had a funny thought if all this comes off! Just to keep a light hearted nature to the thread as sometimes we can get bogged down with the stress of it all.

There's little I can add to the fab comments you lot have already stated. But it looks promising very promising infact. Remember the famous Jaws quote? We are are gonna need a bigger boat! Well there's a chance that some of us maybe lacking the salt on our chips before much longer and yes...we could be needing a bigger table salt container

After glancing the 6z ens...the thing that smacks me round the face is the fact that 1...so many have a disorganised PV and 2...and a big one,is the fact we don't seem too be seeing that strong Azores high killing things from the South! So many have lower heights around the med...Now this is a big plus as we all know it ranks as one of the best for being a pure Winter killer. Some how this time around things seem aligned differently to what we normally end up with. Then we have the fact that so many times over recent months that patterns have become stuck and very slow moving. Early days yes but I like the way things are coming together,especially as we had no real forcing to get this upcoming cold spell going! Perhaps micro scale variables closer to home allowed for certain drivers to become muted. And I feel we are entering unknown territory to the point that the background drivers could be having a much harder time of working out where we are going. Background drivers usually influence NWP..but there's a chance with other variables rearing there heads that sometimes....and perhaps these will become more frequent,that they may at times lose there way! So never give up hope regardless of the main factors not being favourable. PS..And you know what really annoys me folks? Having hands that are too big for you phones keypad News just in. Risk of significant snow and the cold theme continues...There are signs that eventually the Atlantic will try and breakthrough but this is far from certain..and that would bring the risk of further snow! That's from the updated met text...lots going on and lots to be excited about.

6z mogreps still cold...but folks please remember there's gonna be run to run micro scale changes especially at longer timescales. Where we stand currently fills me with optimism...just wait till December lands...I will be break dancing

Eyes down for the 6z mogreps ens...the 0z if anything seem a tad colder than last nights 12s.. Notice how the spread is getting less and more tightly clustered around the colder grouping.

What the snowmaker? Its a potential corker Ali. We appear to stand in a better place this morning with the output..I did urge caution over last nights 18z run,as it seems to throw out far to many wild swings in output. For me if this kind of scenario could hold till Xmas week then it would be a win win situation if it cancelled out the inlaws from coming Also will be interesting what the met put out in the coming 48hrs and to see if little warnings start appearing and I'm feeling this is quite probable.

So much concern over the pub run..Far from a done deal and I very much doubt the met will be changing there thinking over the 18z run..with the gfs it's always what it bringeth it take it awayeth! And please @Don don't be thinking the models always downgrade cold spells on a Friday...its weather and is devoid of human thinking! Time to hit the happy pills my friends and I'm sure things will be better in the morning.

Mogreps look pretty tightly clustered around the colder theme...perhaps more so than last night where there was far more spread! Not bad gang. Sorry @Mark wheeler you had already posted em. How's about a little bit of JAM!

This is what at times vexxes me on this thread,some are looking for disappointment and setting the bar far too high! 23rd of November with a very enthralling period ahead which as come about through no background forcing at all. Yet we are currently seeing Heights towards the NW and also further NE which also acts to weaken the strat further. Surely at such an early starting point there could be far worser places to be in.

How confident to do you feel on that kas? Keep in mind these situations very often correct South..perhaps someone is gonna be hitting the sweet spot.

I just said good commentary! My point is sometimes some of us take an op run as gospel and start to get downbeat very quickly when it shows a less favourable outcome.. yes I'm aware the op runs are valuable but only when they get the backing from the ensembles.

Guys and gals...too make a phrase regarding to phase or not too phase...these are op runs and not a guarantee of the said outcome..the main focus will be on the ensemble and cluster runs.. But yeh it's makes gr8 commentary as you do so it well

Bigger picture with this run..continued pressure on PV that's shifted to the Siberian side.. I will take this.