MATTWOLVES 3

There seems to be a few here who are constantly looking to throw a spanner in the works for those who are searching for colder evolutions. I've even noticed some who seemed to like cold previously who are now playing it down relentlessly! Fair enough if you dislike cold then just say so....not as a means to wind others up...As far as I'm concerned whether you hate cold or love it,you should still summarise the conditions on what the NWP is showing. There are gonna be some on here that even with a BFTE scenario they will still play it down or be quick to point out its demise. All I'm seeing is a growing trend from ensembles going the way of colder! I viewed just 10 0z ens and most of them looking favourable for Winter to bite! If it wasn't there then I wouldn't call it. It is what it is..no point in dismissing things because you may have an agenda...call it for what it is. Be honest with yourselves and honest with other members on here.

Ya see guys the strat Is already taking a little hit right now and this sets it up for a much bigger fall a week or so later. The fuse has been lit and it starts a slow burner....then boom ya better watch out...ya better run like mad. Plus more fuel to add too the

I'm coming at ya strong this evening gang...firstly major support for PV damage and I've taken a look at the ens further into January to see if there's signs of a major pattern shake up,and I think the momentum is now gonna grow. Shoot me down if I'm wrong and I can take the flak...but I feel we are shaping up for something that's been missing for quite some time! Namely proper winter sypnotics. Are you ready folks? I'm all in. Come onnnnn!!!!!! Lol...kasim has changed his name to iberian high!! Now we have Barty hater and iberian high man... Well folks im the kin cold slayer

I think the models are now beginning to hint at whats to come on the back of MJO moving towards favourable cycles. This before the strat takes a potentially massive hit. Exter now saying in the earlier period that a battle is shaping up between colder air and milder air which could bring snow,and that its uncertain whether the milder air will infact move the colder conditions back! All this before a PV hit...I would say things are getting very spicy. All of this plus the bigger risk of El Nino late Winter sypnotics folks.

Firstly I would like to point out that if a major ssw occurs then it has the dynamics to alter literally everything in the atmosphere! Infact scientists are now only realising how it influences even greater and more widespread areas than once previously thought. We are not just talking of a reversal of the mean Wstly winds here it can literally kick the entire NH profile right up the backside and even influence parts of the Southern Hemisphere! So to think it wouldn't be able to budge Iberian Heights is a tad premature. I feel we are now seeing evidence from the ens that a pattern shake up is getting very close. The met also have to be feeling pretty confident to be mentioning prolonged cold spells at this range...if it was much less likely then I'm pretty sure they wouldn't even be flagging it up at this stage. There's something a stirring in the air and I feel more and more confident a gr8 change is coming. So I suggest you sit back and contemplate said events while you butcher your turkey dinner and wolf down the mince pies...to be washed down by a gallon of wine or single malt...what ever takes your fancy. But let's be honest here...how often at this time of the year are we seeing something very exciting weather wise in the making. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4983637

Ecm eps looking promising...something like 40 of 50 members going for a reversal for the 60-90N region. So we are pushing 80% perhaps a tad more for some kind of major strat disruption. Feeling in my water this could be a big one and I think the Canadian warming though only minor as set the strat up for a larger fall. Fo the first time in years we could be looking at potentially wintry conditions developing in January!

Perhaps the hints of events that are now about to begin with the strat and other forcing momentums is beginning to show up in the longer range of ens now. Just think about where we have been these last few weeks,then compare to an evolving NH profile that shows signs of completely shuffling the dice in the days and weeks ahead. Will it be a double 1 a double 3 or a double 6...hedge your bets,I know where my money will be going

Hey folks we have some massive dips on the zonal winds.. a few going off the rictor scale.

Yes it may be made of cement but very soon a bloody big jack hammer Is about to come along

OK Xmas as nearly come and gone. I must admit it's been very strange not being able to see that smile from my dad when the presents were opened. It's been tuff on mom but we've given her all the support and strength that is possible. I hope the day as been kind to you also....together we will get through it hey gang. Now after Xmas Dinner and a few drinks and perhaps a nibble on the celebrations and quality streets,how else could we round up the evening to make it an overall complete day? 1....get completely hammered and forget the day ever existed! Mmmm....perhaps! 2.. watch repeats of the wizard of oz and go and read the 2 forum? Definitely not. 3. Engage in the Xmas edition of Eastenders with Phill Mitchell?? On ya bike gov. 4. Look at some Ecm data that now puts the risk of an SSW at nearly 90% which is 10% higher than yesterday? He'll yehh... Let the countdown begin and get yaself ready for potential weather porn in the days ahead...and this stuff is gonna be Northern Hemisphere XXXXX rated. Love it @sorepaw1 I'm sending you strength and a full recovery my friend..They will look after you otherwise they will have the whole of this forum to deal with..bless ya.

Firstly I would like to point out that if a major ssw occurs then it has the dynamics to alter literally everything in the atmosphere! Infact scientists are now only realising how it influences even greater and more widespread areas than once previously thought. We are not just talking of a reversal of the mean Wstly winds here it can literally kick the entire NH profile right up the backside and even influence parts of the Southern Hemisphere! So to think it wouldn't be able to budge Iberian Heights is a tad premature. I feel we are now seeing evidence from the ens that a pattern shake up is getting very close. The met also have to be feeling pretty confident to be mentioning prolonged cold spells at this range...if it was much less likely then I'm pretty sure they wouldn't even be flagging it up at this stage. There's something a stirring in the air and I feel more and more confident a gr8 change is coming. So I suggest you sit back and contemplate said events while you butcher your turkey dinner and wolf down the mince pies...to be washed down by a gallon of wine or single malt...what ever takes your fancy. But let's be honest here...how often at this time of the year are we seeing something very exciting weather wise in the making.

Wow guys and gals...Xmas as come around so quickly this year. I've woken up this morning feeling so flat as it's my first Xmas not seeing my dad across the table. I can only hope he's now in a better place and know longer having to suffer the indignity of losing more and more of his identity with each passing year. I was so amazed by the sheer amount of messages I received from many of you kind people on this Forum,and I was amazed at how many of you had already lost loved ones recently. When it happens too you the shock takes over and you feel numb,and kind of feel your the only person who is suffering....but you quickly realise your one of many who is suffering. Usually around this time of the year I make a toast to the less fortunate and hope for good health for 2024. This year I will make a toast to all the other good folks who are suffering with the loss of loved ones and other mental and physical issues. Thus year I say a prayer and hope that next year we see a breakthrough for both parkinsons and Dementia,and while it's to late to save my dad and others out there then perhaps it will save others from the cruel fate of robbing that person from the person they once was. So from the bottom of my heart I wish you all the very best for this coming 2024. And I tell you this I now think we are starring down the barrel of eye candy coming into the charts. So much going on over the next couple of weeks and January could be very exciting. Thanks for a gr8 year on this thread folks...thanks for the well wishes and let's all be ready to go again next year. Much love and respect to you all. @ANYWEATHER thanks mate...all the very best and stay strong

As far as I'm concerned what the outer reaches of the GFS shows will become more frequent during the days ahead. Normally we wouldn't take to much notice at this range....but with the drivers being solid and SSW chances increasing,this looks very plausible too me. Do we need to start the party yet or is it premature...perhaps a slow power ballard to warm up before going all out hardcore by the end of the show...if you catch my drift.

Let's beat that PV up folks..is it possible to be both sad and happy! That's how I feel today. How I just love to give you gr8 people some weather joy. Eyes down for next month

Sorry folks and sorry mods...but the longer term met update looks insane.. now says risk of prolonged widespread cold...they're obviously seeing something here..2010 reboot anyone @winterof79

No back down from the met. All eyes on the 2nd week of January...what I'm liking here is the fact they ain't watering it down. Some strong support for ssw at the very beginning of the new year...and this would be a potentially massive time to receive one. Some EC data putting that risk of nearly 80%. Well guys I'm a seeing and im a liking. The place could be buzzing soon. To all those that have lost loved ones in the past and recently...God bless and I send you strength...mistletoe wine and a massive SSW. merwhaaaaaa. @winterof79 it's the same as yesterday.

Merry Xmas Eve you lot and much love from yours truelly. I think GFS could be good,we have literally shifted the core of thr PV away from its naturally home..and its then Blocking will get a chance to take hold. Just one run I know but I can only see the NWP improving over the days ahead. Didn't end up exactly where I was thinking and probably the reason why I usually refrain from commenting through a run. But it's one run and may not sit well with the ensembles.. its also a long way off.. A few tweaks and it would have been a very good run. No stress from my end folks.

I think the Block scenario is gaining some traction..the NAO is also of interest! If those blocks form in the right place then that NOA will tank. Either way with events in the strat currently we are currently looking at an exciting January...and let's face it folks how often have we been able to say that in the last few years! If next month delivers then Xmas can kiss my lovely rounded booty

I see some of you are a tad stressed over the ECM and gfs solutions.. GFS seems to be king at smelling the coffee before ECM. I think the buzzword is it trends colder,and certainly colder than recent days. The zonal winds still looking toasty. Now get ya marshmallows roasted on an open fire and hit the mulled wine. Go on ya deserve it.

Hold ya fire my people. I think things are beginning to change! Some of the ens are showing the possibility of colder blocking scenarios beyond day 10,and this is before a potentially big strat hit. It will perhaps become weaker over the days ahead and there are signs of it taking a bigger hit in the coming couple of weeks. We could then be seeing some dream charts showing in the output before much longer..know guarantee I know but the odds will increase of wintry conditions proper. This could possibly be an mjo 7/8/1 and a pv collapse all at the same time. I must admit that excites me!. No change from Exeter also and thats a solid sign,as usually after a few days they downgrade it by either pushing it back or removing it all together. The signs are good folks. Get drunk and have fun....thats an order from this rather sad chap...but I will get there in the end. Live it large my lovelies.

The mood is so somber in here. I'm coming out of retirement to sort you all out Zonal winds. Ohhhhhj yehhhhhhh Rejoice the strat is in the doghouse..

Hope the mods don't mind me dropping this message in here. I know its only Wednesday and Xmas is 5 days away but with so much going on right now and it being quite in here...and so many stressful things to go through in the next few days regarding my Dad's passing...ie...Chapel of rest and many loved ones and friends visiting us.....I would just like to thank you all again for being so kind with your messages of condolences that last few days. Many of you have taken the time out to wish both me and family well,and I know some of you have also had to deal with heartbreak over the last year or 2...and even @Dennis from Norway has dropped a message to wish me well...and others from across the North Sea also which is pretty surreal....and shows how much a tight fit community this is.. I cant name all of you right now as so many of you have sent me a message and I basically love you all. Xmas is a time for celebration for some,especially those with new families,and a time of great sadness for others who are so very much missing there departed loved ones. So my Heart goes out to you in any difficult times that you encounter throughout this period. I really do hope and prey that 2024 can bring you all the best life can throw at you...if not and your struggling feel free to pm me anytime and I will always be willing to try and lift your spirits folks. To summarise the weather we have some slightly colder air around Xmas but nothing to get excited about right now. But!! Our attentions turn to January and this is the time I feel things could change regarding the sypnotics and the strat. Keep the faith folks and remain a little patient. In the shorter term if you can then please do and try and have a fab Xmas period...life is short and we lose loved ones everyday...now could be the the time to Bury the hatchet if you can! Much love as always folks See you next Year!

Gem shows with a few tweaks how we could be seriously in the game before much longer..pull those Southern heights further back and some more Eastwards movement of the PV and things look very appealing..Tams did mention the reduction of those Heights further South being a possibility. I'm not in the best of places personally but I'm ready for another go...things could well get interesting next month. It's nearly Xmas and I know not all will be looking forward to it..me included but let's spread a little cheer and goodwill and hope those models are ready to ignite this forum. Houston we have lift off....here's hoping for plenty of cheer for 2024. Much love folks.

I sense a touch of towel throwing on the 19th of December...2 days before Winter starts for some astronomically! Guys never give in hope,without it we would merely only exist...but not be living. There's much going on with our Atmosphere over the weeks ahead and the possibility of some wintry goods is far better than last year..thats my honest opinion. Mogreps 6z look a tad colder and some further North could see snow falling around the festive period..others further South less likely but the chance remains. And for me the chances will increase into the New Year... If your gonna give in then take a break...otherwise hold fire til the backend of March. Come on you lot...chins up head held high and stay positive.

Firstly folks I would like to say a massive thanks for all the well wishes I've received from many of you over the loss of my best mate and dad. I showed them to my mom and she was genuinely moved. Its given me a lift that so many show so much care and sympathy during difficult times. Your an amazing bunch and I really hope you get all the rewards you crave for. For the weather I said a while back that backend of December next month could change. And I'm seeing from a few ens that the pv could be about to be displaced maybe even a split....I feel your pain regarding the way things have gone wrong for this latter part of this month....but do remember we are not alone...The USA has been very mild and largely snowless also! No downgrade from Exeter regarding colder conditions perhaps becoming more likely next month. We have plenty of time and I feel the pattern will be completely shook up post Xmas. Once again...much love guys and gals...you've cheered up this rather sad individual right now. And I will continue to try and inject a positive vibe into this gr8 thread.