MATTWOLVES 3

Thanks Briciu.. With a sad heart I report to say my Dad lost his fight on Wednesday...he passed away peacefully with closest family around him. I'm gutted. So many things to now sort out and at such a terrible time of the year. Hey..Xmas aint gonna be the same for me and I know that it won't be gr8 for many others on here also.. so I send you my best wishes. I think my Dad would have wanted me to keep up with my passion for the weather,as he never liked to see me unhappy..so I will try to keep up with the occasional bit of input. Don't get so downhearted over the models not really going for a cold and snowy Xmas! This is just a small part of the Winter duration....and we are here for the long haul. I've noticed the mogrep 6z ens have a fair bit of support for colder around the big day, if it's cold enough or are there enough disturbances in the flow for snow will be the big question. It's into the New Year where things could shake up... there are some signs of the strat taking a hit and just one look at that met update,with the hints of a more prolonged cold snap shows there models are perhaps sensing it out. In the meantime folks try and enjoy your Xmas festivities and remember that a milder Xmas period means nothing for how the rest of the Winter could shape up. God bless you all.

Hey folks hope your all chasing that next cold snap down.. it will come trust me. As many of you will be aware my dad has been poorly for some time now with parkinsons disease..in the last week he as become very poorly and is now entering that final stage of life..So we have palliative Care coming in daily to keep him comfortable..and god bless he is really comfortable and that's all I could really hope for. As his carer for many years and working by his side as a builder for many years..this coming Xmas is going to be the hardest me my brother and dear mother have ever endured. A lovely man who deserved non of this. But you know these things are completely out of our control. So I would like to send some some positive Xmas cheer and joy for all my netweather friends on here,and this includes the netweather team who do a great job with this site and even better job with this model thread. Some of you will also have a sad Xmas for numerous reasons..ie lost loved ones...missing families and friends you rarely see.....money problems and the dreaded loneliness! As always like every Xmas my heart goes out to any of you who encounter these problems. So all of you do try and enjoy your Xmas as best as you can...maybe that old friend or family member will turn up out of the blue. And if this can't be the case then here's hoping you all have a better 2024. It's gonna be a heartbreaker for me but I won't give in. And for the weather,perhaps colder next week....hopefully we can get that favourable phase of the mjo...as it will put pressure on the PV. And once again the zonal winds look encourage for the strat to take a hit,perhaps next month. Thanks guys and gals for a gr8 model thread this current year,which wouldn't be possible without your contributions. Live it large...and let's get some cold in Much love Matt.

To me to you!! Tell you what folks all this talk of uppers is giving me and many others on here the downers! Only one thing for it....the zonal winds.....ohhhhhh yehhhhhh

Faux cold artificial cold...pretend cold,call it what you may...but this looks like a trend to actual cold...perhaps real cold

Ohh the joys of model watching..1 post says awfull ecm run...the next says progressively colder especially further South! I feel your pain newbies I really do Personally I was thinking those Heights are showing some signs of nudging further NE...and that would have been the outcome if the op would have run till day 12..Either way we could potentially end up with a cold surface high. @Kentspur im not really sure but i get the feeling you may have been to scandy recently...just a hunch mind

Hints of something colder on the 6z mogreps..colder high perhaps or changes a foot!

Hi gang. Let's not get to down hearted here. The met update was solid and you can't expect them to upgrade to severe wintry conditions in around 3 weeks time..(can we) Imagine the stick they would get...they took some flack over the warnings for snow around the lakes not being thorough enough...and this was a nowcasting situation. Yes we enter a rut but that does not mean just like last year after a cold spell the Winter Will fizzle out. I heard a poster earlier say I can't see much in the way of cold or snow away from the North now for the rest of the Winter..bloody hell for real? Utterly ridiculous statement to make on the 5th of December..and know more ridiculous than saying on the 5th of June after a 5 day warm spell that that's ya lot for the rest of Summer. Some interest with some of the ens that could point the way to those sypnotic changes later this month. Ohh and the zonal winds... In the meantime do have pleasant dreams this evening and not nightmares over the current model output...if your not liking it then simply do not view it for a few days and clear your heads...your mental health will thank you for it in the long run.

K wasn't really jumped on for that..it was more there won't be any snow from it and hey presto a foot in the Lake District.. not to discredit Kas as he is very sincere and ultra knowledgeable.And he makes mistakes just like the rest of us.

The place has been oh so quite the last day or 2....GFS serves up a cracker with a core of the pv dropping literally over us...been on the pop again or picking up on some early drivers! It's seriously close to a boom chart tbh. Most definitely a Kenneth ohhhhh moment though. I'm waiting for the doomsters to say...thats far too West based.

Beka the talk was of deep cold air entrenched over scandy being hard to shift as it had been in place for several weeks. We had mainly surface cold air that had been in place for several days which would be a lot easier to push back. Keep in mind we had no real forcing of the pattern to back this up...the cold spell probably coming about due to a wave break. If we were to get cold locked into place with a big Scandinavia High pressure backing it up or strong Heights towards the North and North West after snow has fallen followed by numerous sub zero nights...then trust me it would be a hell of alot harder to shift! If we were to be on the right side of a split with a complete wind reversal..ie ...East to West...it would be again difficult to shift that cold air due to the backwards momentum of a Wstly flow...obviously that's not to rule out a developing storm like 2018 which scuppered our freeze early on.. largely due too the split being so clean and extreme it sent the cold uppers flooding ridiculously far West,and hey presto...frigid uppers over warm ocean..and there's ya storm.

I think the yanks could quickly lose patience with the way things could be heading..Strong East based EL Nino could bring much warmer conditions moving through the month. Keeping the cold from them can only be better for us longer term in my honest opinion. @MAF i dont think i could have explained it in any easier terms.

Zonal winds still looking solid folks..No backing down over the past week.

What they mean? Ie the op the det run and the control run are similar..They are 2 runs from a possible 30 runs on gfs and as much as 50 on the ecm. With each run being started from a slightly different variation in initial conditions..the det tending to be higher resolution with the op 2nd..The mean is roughly an average of all ensembles in the run.

Something worth pointing out regarding EL nino Winters that some do not mention often.. We are a long way downstream of events around the Pacific and there is know concrete evidence that they influence our conditions in a big way,due to other variables closer to home. The 2009 very cold winter was I think a EL Nino Winter....so yeh promising you would say...on the other hand the 2007 Winter which was also El Nino was very mild! There is some evidence to suggest that any benefits will come via the 2nd half of Winter...ie strong PV becoming weaker and more prone to breaking down January onwards. So many things to keep an eye on in the coming weeks...especially the state of the SPV. I've included a chart which shows how things can play out.

As we all know those EC weeklies and zonal winds have been hinting at strat disruption for a while..and according to Judah an event could take place in early January,with the warming being centred over the pole..and not being based on zonal wind strength. All eyes on the backend of the month. Forget this week and probably next but fixate on events possibly changing for the better shortly after.

Yeh it may turn less cold..we all know...but how many were saying a couple of weeks back that there was no easy route to cold in the run up to this snap? Zonal winds look fab yet again...im feeling good...it may be the vitamins I ain't really sure.. but the strat is gonna bust.

The 12s from the mogreps hardly scream mild do they? And for me they look a tad colder than the 6s...more of a colder clustering. Raging mild looks unlikely in the next 8 or so days.

Gem is squeezing those Heights around Greenland with a low pressure to prop it up for good measure...plenty of stress being placed on the PV on the Siberian side for good measure..keep squeezing and eventually it could go Booooommmmmmm. Who's ready for the next chase! Or are me and several others gonna keep the dream alive..come on folks its a team effort..how often do you see a team win when they're down to 8 men..

Mmmmmm.perhaps a little hint of colder air trying to make a push again at times on the mogreps 6z...they look a tad colder than the 0s. I still feel this less cold spell will be brief.

The chase is better than the outcome? Well what when your chasing the woman of your dreams for months...buying her chocolates and other expensive gifts...being there for her in her times of distress..then one day you pop the question! Will gou go out with me..I love you? On ya bike is the replie...I ain't bloody desperate Well folks I know someone who that happened to on more than one occasion....OK yeh it was me...but I'm too old to care now...put me out to graze at the animal sanctuary....thats what a failed cold chase feels like. Like others have said the longer term prognosis is good...i know similarities with last December have been made,but that was destined to be a front loaded winter....this one is in reverse,a backloaded one....and drivers are far more positive than last year! A quick glance at some of the ens and I think this is what we could be seeing in a couple of weeks time. So just a little patience and hold fire...just like you should with santa...he won't come if you Start to stress him out folks

Disappointed with snow amounts here...I've seen more dandruff tbh But as long as some of my fellow chasers got a decent amount I ain't bothered. The risk continues for some over the next couple of days before milder air makes inroads....yes it spells the end for this cold snap.......but we've had our 1st cold spell and snow for some so early in the season. And yes the current drivers that are heading favourable with mjo and increased pressure being placed on the strat look gr8. So perhaps focus on that just before Xmas period of further blocking building momentum..If a pv split were to occur late December early January...we would again be in a position of wintry goods providing the dice fall correctly. So those who have snow enjo it..those who don't hold ya patience...as we could be in a much better position 2 or 3 weeks from now. Also plenty of the long range ens hinting at change. Have a gr8 day...dont be putting a snowball through ya neighbours window and don't be breaking any bones..

Wow...the ecm ens are like a dog with a bone regarding heights around scandy..there seems to be quite a bit of noise on those Ural Heights also...and its plain to see why those zonal winds hint at a reversal when these sypnotics are in the offing. Im sick of sounding like a stuck record here but I really do like the way this season is shaping up! I've been on a long shift on here today bringing you the latest and hoping to keep your spirits up..cause lets face it....the output right now from various data...ie...blocking and zonal winds look very impressive. Like I say I've done my show for you all today...and there's no way I'm doing a night shift...I won't do 2 shows night baby...I just won't do it.. A splendid evening to ya all.

I've noticed with the zonal mean winds how through the week there's that little variation..day 1 more members going for it...day 2 slightly less...and so fourth...here's the 7 days worth with tonight's included.

Tell you what folks day 6 on ecm takes my eye..if that Low slides a tad more we could be game on for some significant snow...and here lies the problem...the models are really struggling in where to go with these Lows..keep sending them under and we remain in the game big time. Interesting finish....Still those ural Heights putting pressure on the pv..look at those heights emerging SW of Greenland...lots to play for. Not a very typical winter set up by any stretch of the imagination. PS I think the forum is suffering model fatigue...come on you lot,let's be having ya...its only December 2nd....get ya caffeine fix

I've seen the future...well I've seen the 12z ens,and let me tell you something my lovelies there's a vast amount of impressive sypnotics on view! And I really can't remember the last time we was seeing such an amount of Blocking being modelled at this time of the year! Or January and February for that matter!. I'm liking what I'm seeing and I feel any less cold episode will quickly be followed by a proper taste of Winter..thats my call and I'm happy to make it...im also happy to be shot down if it fails...but hey,that's the buzz of making forecasts and predictions.. test yourself and see how you fair! Come onnnnm