MATTWOLVES 3

Absolutely laughable the difference between the 6z and the 12z at a similar timeframe! If that's backed up by the mean I will bow down!

Again the 6z continues with the more settled theme moving into next week and beyond..Going on that mean I would say much better conditions away from the far NW,where these areas could be more prone towards lower heights towards the Iceland area.

Let's be honest here,there have been a few times the noaa charts have not been in tandem with the Ops or means..The success rates of all of the data becomes less confident for the Summer periods in general. Those noaa charts and the current means are completely at loggerheads again,and there's no way I will be ruling out a much better period next week based solely upon them! Will be interesting to see what tonight's EC46 brings and the next run of means from the 6Z suite. But for now I'm completely going against those noaa charts! We will see.

I detect some twitchy fingers in here this morning! Personally I feel the ops are doing there customary thing in showing various options...The means both look good for an improving picture! So I will remain confident until they begin to wobble.

This is where the ensembles come into play beyond the 5 day period..The extended mean out to day 14 remains above 1013mb which is normally the benchmark of measuring barometric pressure. The signs look more positive..I think I will congratulate myself now,and if the trend is still my friend tomorrow...I may give myself a big slap on the back too..

Last one from me.(I do have a life you know) All looks good on the mean..August in like a lion and out like a beast

Ok I'm sounding like a broken record now,but the 12z mean continues the better theme. @swfc you've timed your comeback just perfect...the weather gods are looking down on you

A few of us have been hinting at this mate..fingers crossed. You have my Heart felt sympathy my lad. Here's wishing you a speedy recovery and a much better rest of the year

UKMO day 7 looks OK.. the trough mixing out by this stage.

Multi tasking here...retro drum n bass mixing and model watching at same time. 12z looking good.tbh it seems to settle us down a bit earlier also. Could be some fireworks here.

6Z mean backs up the transition to much better conditions beyond next week. Wouldn't it be nice to receive a repeat of conditions through the mid July period! Not so sure about how warm it could get at this stage,but mid to high 20s could be the order of the day! Let's just wait and see. Enjoy your Sunday roast.

UKMO at day 7 and GFS 6z shows a slowly improving picture..out to day 9 and the 6Z still keeps us settled and makes less of the little trough that was in evidence on the 6Z run yesterday! Trough remaining parked over the Iceland area towards day 10. Looking pretty good from the 6Z..

Last nights EC mean and this mornings look pretty close for a better outlook...also backed up by the GFS 0Z mean for a similar time frame. 6Z op perhaps will be illustrating this shortly.

Thanks Karl and also Pete for keeping the regular updates...all you other regulars that have vanished....get back on that naughty step! ECM mean will eventually settle us down,and I feel increasingly confident it will gradually warm up! Have a good rest of the Weekend.

I know I'm probably chatting with myself on here going on how quiet it is lately..mind you I have been known to do that often anyway But here goes...12z mean keeps with the theme of a settling down!! For how long and just how warm? Let's get it landed first then I will stress over that later.

UKMO day 7 courtesy of Brian...looking like the improvements are ready to pounce shortly after. Come on guys and gals...let's get behind this next potential summary spell...let's rejoice and savour

12z continues with the High pressure building scenario,just look at those Heights towards scandy also! This looks better. It's looking good..im happy

Was the op backed up by the mean? Yes it was! Possible improvements around the 10th of August gaining traction!

Tell you what mate,if this spell doesn't come off..our reputations and credentials are shot on here! That's if we ever had any to start with! Ohh the joys of trying to compile a forecast from an enthusiasm point of view.

GFS 6Z says well hello there Matthew!! I want some Summer loving also! ❤ Looks much better I'm sure you will agree.

Well if I was allowed to talk about music and weight lifting...I would make random comments about those as well! So here is another random comment about the output! It's unsettled through next week,that doesn't mean relentless rain though,sunny spells also! Guess what....it looks to settle down come week 2! And I think the ens may be getting a hold on this evolution now!

There's a little more to it than purely guessing. The last settled spell was picked up several weeks earlier regarding rising AAM! There's not much point in anyone coming on here to issue a forecast beyond a few days,if its merely going to be a case of guessing! I'm pretty sure Exeter and the like do a little more than guess when they issue there monthly forecasts! Yes beyond 10 days is fraught with error at anytime of the year! But there are signs for sure of things settling down before much longer on a fair amount of data. Can't you come on here once in a while and issue a forecast,rather than to keep saying its all pretty pointless second guessing the models beyond a certain timeframe!

Spot the Heights around Greenland! That's right,they've gone! Things can only improve from day 11 onwards folks! That's my shift done..do have a nice Weekend if you can..

GFS 12z mean bringing a change to more settled conditions around day 10 and beyond...the countdown begins.

That settled trend seems to be picking up on the ops now..I was expecting the changes to start showing later this Weekend/early next week! But so far so good..big ECM and mean coming up! Now where have I heard that phrase Before!