MATTWOLVES 3

Icon you beauty...wants to slam that High to the NE. I don't care what you say about these charts...for or against...im just happy so see those red colours Crazy minds think a like @jon snow

I'm merely pointing out the signal for drier conditions...unfortunately I can't do much else about the surface conditions! Mate in all honesty it's been dreadful here for most of the Summer....I just refuse to moan about it!

The future is Bright,the future is orange mate.. would still like to see those Heights transfer a little further Eastwards though.. Early look at the 6z ens highlights decreasing rainfall spikes also...let's just hope we don't end up with a gloom fest...West is best perhaps...

Seems to me they're doing what most of the data does..namely pick up on something more positive,before dropping the idea a few days later! I don't think I would like to call surface conditions in 12 days time though.

That's it mate...get the kids back at school,then we can get the deck chairs back out...The weather gods must have a serious grievance with the younger generation

UKMO looks peachy I think we are slowly starting to see the upgrades the means we're showing us for some time.

A little misleading to be making bold statements like that...the simple fact is nobody knows what the future will bring...and that goes for all aspects of life! So to say your confident,is a tad dramatic!

Not done and dusted by any means. The op was a little optimistic shall we say...the mean holds pretty firm,but is a little down on recent days,and there is also support for a less settled outlook on the ens...alot to be resolved over the next few days...uncertainty the BIG WORD!

Good points Mike,could we still be suffering from the vortex being knocked off its perch all Winter,regarding our Summer conditions! Not directly right now due to the vortex long being broken down....but perhaps changes made towards the jet profile and oceans! And this weak jet seems to go on and on...whatever happened to complete zonal conditions! Could be a good early sign,baring in mind a weak Jet will lead to a weak Vortex and perhaps break it down completely!

GFS not for the 1st time..you are the weakest link.. last one from me for a bit due to friction burn Ecm is to coin a phrase.. sound.

Bloody hell guys me fingers are working overtime tonight 168hrs comparison for you experts to analyse.

And to compare the two at 144hrs Mark...looks literally spot on. This is like compare the market.com

ECM and UKMO at 120hrs..pretty close at this stage.

Excellent summary mate,and most definitely this should be taken into account regarding the current model output! Especially one that has to many faces! I would say to GFS...if your gonna have so many faces,at least make one of them pretty

I'm gonna say something i rarely say mate...the mean is looking promising Having a sense of humour is a must when your a UK resident,I'm sure you will agree.

I think I'm gonna send a nurse out to you mate to have your temperature checked...thats the first mixed outlook I've heard from you in ages.. I think your applying some reverse psychology mate I would say much model volatility at present.

Good post Mike,and just to point out the 3 tropical storms in the Atlantic currently are probably causing some major model headaches...Marco p pointed this out in his latest tweet.

UKMO day 7 not looking to bad after a partial inspection..

It looks like the Summer crew have given up the chase today You know me,keep chasing till its mathematically impossible. I don't think anyone discussed the longer range EC46 last night regarding next month.. the 1st half looks quite poor with greater influence from Low pressure,quite alot of negative anomalies.The 2nd half looks more promising with stronger positive anomalies,and these very distinctive around the Scandinavian area...so Indian Summer perhaps not,more like a continuation of mixed conditions for our neck of the wood.

It looks to improve by day 6 onwards if you ask me,some uncertainty over where High pressure finally resides,but could easily shunt NE wards and bring us a decent lead up to the Bank Holiday.

A few seem keen to discuss the ops and point out Summer is done. If your looking for an Heatwave,perhaps it is...but not if its the possibility of some decent conditions..The ensembles show GFS op was a little aggressive again. The ECM mean looks OK and there's decent ensemble support for those conditions also! Quite alot of ens support from the GFS also for a settling down..Last nights EC46 was positive also,and I'm not going to dismiss all that data this morning. I'm not going to keep saying Summer is coming or it's over on here,all because I'm fed up by the way it's panned out! That's life unfortunately and we move on...but what I see this morning,is not all bad.

Just to add some weight to Karl's post above...tonight's EC46 going for quite a strong build of Heights into scandy next week..so we kind of end up with a potential Estly feed and becoming rather warm with it.....certainly no Atlantic breakthrough on the cards next week...Still looking good for something much better next week. Oops...Low pressure threatening to mess up the Bank Holiday period somewhat...long way off..but it would hardly be a suprise would it! The 46 anomalies are highlighting a very strong build of pressure to our NE...be interesting to see how that plays out.

12z looking similar to the 0z.

Bloody hell Chris you can't be playing down Winter just yet,let me remind you,the cold chasing crew on here are an unforgiving bunch...Best to keep em sweet mate Ps the GFS control was a corker if you like a little bit of Higher pressure.

UKMO into day 7 perhaps clearing the low SE