MATTWOLVES 3

Hopefully mate,more of that come November.. Nice UKMO,especially away from Eastern areas..I would say W/NW is gonna be just grand...

1st out the blocks is me followed by the icon. Not bad,the settled theme is there...perhaps areas further NW getting the warmest conditions...so get yourself some Blackpool rock... Positive met update for the Bank Holiday..perhaps more widely warmer,before hints of a breakdown towards end of week 1...heres hoping for some very late summer conditions up until that point folks.

It's an outlier mate,the GFS op usually always is So better conditions for next week...but don't get me started on surface conditions! There's no way I'm coming on here to start nitpicking at that It will be what it will be. And it looks like a trend to slowly but surely turn us less settled as we move into the new month! That's been flagged up recently from the EC46...so its not without support.

Looks like everyone is out raving tonight...not me I'm at home raving...dont worry I will address the nation with the ECM..its looking fine,if anything the high looks a tad more to the NE on this run...but that would be me nitpicking

Gem looking pretty decent...could get pretty warm away from the East..Ukmo day 7 looking fine also...Will post that later. Tis the year of Northern Blocking...i have a feeling in me water this could be the year.. could be prostate problems though

Tut tut jon Snow..he really should have used the words...Nitpicks...Nitpicked....Nitpicker...Nitpicky. But the hyphenated form is becoming a less frequent form of use. Gfs 6z looking pretty good...we lose those NW Heights too...but I've a feeling they will return..in the shorter term,it looks pretty sound.

Bit to far out to worry about the conditions for your golf that far out...you may get lucky! Tell you what though, Northern Blocking is showing up often again...long may that trend continue further into the year.

I've pointed this out from the last couple of ec46 updates! Matt H as been pretty solid with his Summer forecasts though..so kudos to him. But yeh a definite signal for a breakdown towards months end,before perhaps an improvement around the mid month period. I can't help but notice on here this morning how there seems to be a chuckle brothers routine going on...there will be lots of cloud!! Oh no there won't! Yes there will! I would have thought NE/E areas could have problems with cloud at times which can become reluctant to clear at times..central and Western areas should fair the best! But for me it's still to early to nail daily surface conditions down at this stage....just little tweaks here and there could make daily variations. So at least we have a good week of dry and settled condition to look forward too..But for me it looks to be following the same path of mid July...namely a week of fine weather before turning more unsettled for some time....only difference being,we won't be getting serious Heat this time around! And in all fairness that's ya lot! Eyes down for something more interesting come November,and I'm sure a much more productive summer next year.

Not the best of news folks..Definitely more settled in the run up to the Bank Holiday...but its touch and go whether this holds due to Low pressure from the NW having greater influence. The signal is growing for a more unsettled start to the month,especially further NW where bands of rain and stronger winds could affect you at times,and these most likely spreading South at times..best of the conditions towards the far SE. I said the other day it could be towards mid month before the next improvement comes along! Plenty of water to go under the bridge before then... Edit.. the above is reference to the EC 46 mean.

850s looked OK.. Estlys can bring brilliant conditions at certain times of Summer! I've basically said on numerous occasions some areas will see some very nice conditions..and I've pointed out more than once,areas towards the East could be plagued with low cloud and cooler temps! Even the met are saying sunnier and warmer...do you know something they don't? And there's very rarely ever a set up that puts the entirety of the UK in the same conditions.

I would say they've got access to a hell of a lot more data....Mogreps for instance! If Alex deacon says it's looking sunnier and Warmer...thats a good thing...one of the better met forecasters for me. Word of caution though regarding tonight's ens..quite a few members dropping that pressure somewhat!! Eyes down for the EC46....but I've a feeling in me water September may well start a little unsettled before improving a little further on.

Ecm looking OK, well its at least a privilege to see much brighter colours around the UK. Ohh hello...warmer uppers alert.. Come on guys.. work with me . Its bloody stressful work on ya lonesome No complaints from me on this run...have a very good evening,I'm knackered Yep...it ends well..so I'm happy.

Chris compared to what I have right now,which Trust me...is dire...those charts are a vast improvement....Good summary conditions don't necessarily have to mean 30+. Yes you may be plagued by low cloud thus suppressing temps...but it could turn out very nice for some..and I'm not gonna come on here and depress folks all because the conditions are not great in my locale! If some get a nice spell out of this,then I will be happy.

Whisper to your friends...summer might be coming. Better late than never I say...cracking gem run..

UKMO looking

Yes Pete the 6z op run does turn out to be a very encouraging run,all be it beyond day 10 especially! Does it have support? Well the op is a little on its own for a time next week...and the early set of ens are showing support for a better spell of weather. There are even hints on that op further along the line of a more traditional type North to South split! Which as clearly been lacking so far this season. Edit...sorry...the op pretty much in line with the mean next week..I mistaken another ensemble for it....my bad!

The negativety Pete I feel is a case of having such a poor Summer....bit like having long term Health problems,when it's been going on for long enough,you can get to the stage where you feel your never gonna improve. And I think that's what's happening with some of our less optimistic posters more than anything...The output today is not bad,obviously some areas are gonna fair better...perhaps towards the E/SE could see some issues with cloud and murk,so wall to wall sunshine and very warm temps being off the menu. I'm noticing a fair amount of scatter on the Ecm extended ensembles out to day 14...with the mean at this point coming in at around 1014mb. So it looks better...fantastic...no! But you know me,I'm easily pleased.

As you were with the 18z...I would say more Northern areas looking good for something summery,more SE and E areas could be prone to low cloud and at times cooler conditions...im also noting extremely low confidence from the met in the forecast moving forward! So it's impossible at this stage to really nail that 10 day forecast. Potential fly in the ointment towards the South mid next week!

Thanks Damian...that 2009 to 2011 period coincided with some pretty sharp winters also..im struggling to drink me ovaltine now...too excited

In all fairness mate I would say its most definitely a summer you south Easterners would quickly like to forget! Here's hoping you get some winter rewards to make up for it!

We have 1 big mean eyed face at 240hrs..theres my summary.

I will take these charts right now Mike...and I will take em even more come Winter...and I wouldn't be suprised at all to see this occurring more than once....its a messed up year for sure...

ECM shaping up OK...do we finally have something to cheer about!

Day 7 UKMO Mike...not at all bad my good man.

UKMO shaping up nicely