MATTWOLVES 3

Looks quite different from the previous runs mate regarding NW heights...but like you say it now picks up a signal for quite strong Heights around scandy later in the run. Let's not forget something as well....Greenland Heights may be the holy grail for winter,but any decent build of Heights around Scandinavia can also deliver the goods,if everything goes to plan. If we are gonna remain with a weak and meandering jet,those Heights perhaps having more time to stick! Anyway it's all along way off and tbh at that range you will always have a bias for climatological normal to be accounted for. Early days my man...keep the faith...

Tonight's EC46 anomalies with a run up to Xmas..not had any chance to sum them up,so I will leave that to you guys.. Excellent post @Eagle Eye many thanks for that brilliant analysis

Hand on ❤... I think the GFS ens and latest runs are more than hinting at colder shots from the N/NW towards months end! Keep In mind this is also being backed up by the current Exeter thoughts! Let's hope this signal remains steadfast with tonights ec46...but I wouldn't be at all suprised to see areas further North seeing some of the white stuff before much longer! And perhaps this risk extending further South with time...All to play for in the toddler stages of the coming season.

Netwx community,it came up for me yesterday and I just installed the app...so it saves to your home screen and enables you to jump right back into the thread without having to go through your normal search engine...hope this helps mate. It came up for me yesterday when I was on the site randomly,so I just installed it...not sure if it's new,or been around for a while,but it's the first time that I had ever seen it before.

Firstly...its great that Netweather have added the model thread to an app...so much easier to jump straight back in..well done And secondly....I've got a feeling this coming Winter will leave many of the so called experts scratching there heads with frustration! The NH looks all over the place too me...The models are throwing out wildly fluctuating output every 24hrs right now! So what chance have we got with trying to work out the travel of play beyond a week! For me all options are on the table for the scope of of plenty of cold opportunities moving forward...it looks far from Zonal....so any of the experts who went for a mild and wet winter....well good luck to you....yes its the climatology normal for these parts of the Globe..but it looks far more complicated again this year,and we seem very open to something significant at some point! The ens throw all kinds of solutions into the mix,and there seems to be plenty of Blocking on numerous ones. Snow by Xmas day and trust me I will be dancing in it.

Yes mate that looks poor...but look at the timeframes! All we are seeing is output that goes from fantastic to diabolical in 24hrs! If we are seeing output like that in 4 or 5 weeks time,I may get concerned...but for the here and now,I'm not in the slightest bit concerned.. Life has taught me one major thing....the more you stress and concern yourself over any kind of task or anything out of your control,the harder the said task becomes! But yeh mate it's a long haul,and we've barely stopped off for refreshments just yet...and your rant is fine by me...your actually a very good insightful poster...like I said know disrespect to any posters on here....hopefully the new iceage will be back come the 18z..

Can I just say one thing here folks,and know disrespect to any of you lot who post some great stuff on here! Why do so many of you go from Euphoric too severely withdrawn over each and every model run? These model runs are constantly toying with different ideas and scenarios multiple times a day! Several great runs or bad runs dont mean a great deal when the timescales are beyond a week,and especially the 10 day period. And even if this attempt fails,let's please remind ourselves that its still not mid November! The signals for Heights have been there from the EC46 for a few runs now...so just because current model output does not favour it,that's not to say the 46 will back down come Thursday! Infact it may even strengthen the idea! There is very good reason the Exeter monthly outlook changes more often than my underwear!! Yes its called major uncertainty for a small Island in a large North Western Hemisphere! Try not to give yourselves major Hangovers when these individual runs back down from certain outcomes. One swallow does not make a Summer...and one set of mild runs do not make a winter,especially being that the season is still 3 weeks away from being born. Cool heads required all around for a 3 month long slog! But have petty one me who will probably be at it for 5 months

Thing is mate it's just as foolish to keep saying it's all gonna collapse because that's what happens most of the time! It's the weather and nobody really knows whats going to happen beyond a certain timeframe! This is good fun to see at such an early stage of the year,but for me personally....its a tad to early for anything meaningful right now. But we have 3 months to if not hit the jackpot,then perhaps get a few 2nd or 3rd prizes! And personally I don't think the current GFS is losing the plot by showing these Height rises towards Greenland....its actually backed up by the 46 anomalies....especially for later in the month....so it may well be onto something.

This is just dandy...Those Heights seem to be getting a propping up from Low Pressure to the South of it...The vortex is completely shunted towards the Eastern side,which would surely aid the formation of significant cold developing towards our NE/E...just where we would want it! Again the very abnormal Year continues... That's enough from me tonight as too much excitement at this stage of the evening very often Leads to bed wetting episodes Let's hope the pub run does not become a major hang over come the 0z op run..but..like many have said...things look to be shaping up rather quite well.

Yes Ali and take a look at the Vortex...its completely displaced from its usual home! That bunny seems to be hopping it along

Perhaps a flat and sluggish jet helping things along,also a little help of coming out of Solar minimum,which inturn is perhaps contributing towards this weak and meandering jet. Like @Mike Poole has stated very often,the pattern since last year as not really been shaken up at all this year! Tbh Shaky I'm feeling very optimistic...early days I know,but I just can't see a rampant and Wstly orientated sypnotic dominating the winter pattern! Only time will tell,but the early signs look encouraging.

Great to see the uptempo mood in here as we countdown to Winter proper. Anything at this stage can only be a positive....perhaps talk of a 2010 re run is a little optimistic! Every year can be unique in its own right....for better or worse! Anyway 2010 is one for the History books....let's make 2021/22 the one we will never forget! Wishful thinking...perhaps! But just like the lottery,you never know. While we are at it,tonight's 46 anomalies again hint at good Height rises to the N/NW at various times over the next few weeks,and the signal remains as we move into Xmas month! Have a very profitable week ahead

Wow guys check out those extended anomalies,updated yesterday....it appears the UK at times develops its own cold pool! A pinch of salt required with these extended anomalies though...always an element of climatology normal involved with them. Fingers crossed for a very seasonal Winter.

The blocking signal is there again around mid month on tonight's EC46 anomalies...and dare I say it some early signs of Blocking towards our NW as we enter December also...For me we ain't looking at any kind of raging zonal flow at all! Perhaps early signs of a more seasonal start to early winter.. Beyond that....who knows...but as ever,always an exciting period in the run up to Xmas.. So my checklist next month is 1.. Get the shopping done early. 2...Dont invite the in laws for Xmas Dinner 3...Check the latest model runs for cold potential! 4...And finally hopefully play in the snow! Perhaps John Lewis can arrange all of this for me.. Have a pleasant Guy Falkes evening and Weekend ..

Tbh mate I think you will find the b n q is a DIY store,and has no place for discussion on a weather forum On a more positive note tonight's ecm was a little optimistic regarding 850s...it looks well out of place. But there is agreement for pressure to rise so perhaps more settled towards day 10....i will take that over non stop rain anyway! Know point in getting to stressed over current sypnotics at this stage of the month regarding the upcoming Winter. Whatever pattern we have right now won't necessarily mean anything to what pattern we may be looking at come next month! So in 4 weeks time....its then game on... And let's make the countdown to Xmas a memorable one folks. The very best of Health to you all.

Brilliant control run SI...its a little on its own with the current ens though,and we have quite an assortment of scenarios. I'm still feeling confident of a much more seasonal 2nd half of the month though. Just check this member out..almost like a spring chart of very warm air to the south...and much colder air towards the North! Would be some excitement on the battle lines of this one! I nearly choked on me bangers and mash

I think mate your jumping the gun a tad here...you seem really downbeat on the output this year...please try to remember it's only the beginning of November,and the chances are we will be looking at completely different circumstances during the next few weeks! Personally I'm always very doubtful of pinning hopes on severe winter prospects at this early in the season. Some joy on last night's anomalies regarding High pressure to our NW come mid and latter part of this month....one too watch! Patience young man

Silly season is nearly upon us folks...get your food shopping now,the turkeys are being slayed poor things. Unsettled and often windy will sum up the next week or so....beyond that I think then things potentially get a bit more interesting! There are clear signs for Heights to be sustained to our N/NW towards mid month,with this pattern potentially holding firm as the month ends! Yes its a long way off...but the signs are there again for something much more wintry as that balmy season counts down! Have a fab weekend,and the best of Health to each and everyone of ya..

Do I detect talk of a colder snap in here! Moving into November,possibly those temperatures falling away! Surely to God not the beginning of a December 2010!! Late November is when that party got truelly started! I'm not going to compare with previous episodes in years gone by,as each and every year as the potential to be unique in its own rights. But my confidence is building just that bit more of something more seasonal this year! Heights to the NW from last nights EC46 are becoming clearly evident as we move into the new month....baby steps and all of that! And no toy throwing this year folks...remember the lorry Driver shortages! Its gonna be a git to replace them Oh and kudos to you lot...some of you are learning to quickly with your unbelievable informative posts! Have a great week guys and gals.

Hold fire folks,we have 6 more weeks before we should start to dribble! Firstly there is talk of vortex disruption very shortly,this could bring colder conditions into November,but its never a given. Very early disruption could easily see the vortex become much stronger as we move towards winter proper! So I'm holding fire for now,as its too soon..and tbh whatever pattern we may see in the coming couple of weeks will not necessarily mean anything to what we end up with come December! We need to keep those Heights away from Central Europe for a start,but on a plus side I'm still not seeing a strong and rampant jet,meaning any Heights setting up in the right place won't necessarily eroded by that strong Jet,especially the Northern arm. We can see some increase in Heights towards the NW later this month.....but for now I will sit on the fence and see how this early warming plays out. Have a fabulous evening good people.

Hope your all OK folks...its been that long since I posted that I forgot that we are staring down the barrel of Winter Seriously guys im almost ready to go all in...fire and brimstone,the lot...just getting my cold quarter digs all up to scratch for the big chase. Just for fun l,last nights EC46 anomalies hint at good positive Heights to the NW as we enter November! Yes its a long way off,but I have a feeling in me water that we are on the cusp of something special this Winter! Have a fab weekend guys and gals.. much respect

Morning gang. Just a quick look at the 46 anomalies moving forward...it trends more unsettled next week and perhaps into the following week,but dare I say it....turning more settled again as we move into the new month! How extensive this becomes is obvious open to debate at this range. But perhaps Heights never to far away from the South for some time. So for me still no raging Atlantic onslaught...well not for a sustained and prolonged spell anyway! Have a good evening,watching silence of the lambs is making me feel hungry. So it looks like a plate of beans and a nice chianti for me

Most definitely,it's just another tool to see where we could be heading further along the line...but yeh anything beyond 10 days is fraught with error. They do kind of back up what Exeter are currently hinting at though....more settled towards the S/SE...im still not convinced of the Atlantic onslaught though...perhaps in the short term! But not sustained...

Last nights 46 was for sure becoming more unsettled towards the end of next week...But we see a fair amount of Blocking towards the NW at times. Perhaps conditions becoming more settled as we move into October also. These are the anomalies for quite a time period,so expect minor details to change on various days! Have a great weekend

Hey Mike I've just earned a new badge...so now I can mix it with the big boys! UKMO looks pretty good at day 7 also..