MATTWOLVES 3

Tell you what gang,the icon is a decent run..early cold shot looks a beaut...and its close to setting up for a reload come day 7. I'm liking it...nothing of sustained mild on that run. Note where we have a good chunk of vortex around day 7 also. Merwahhh.

Hi mate...hope your on the mend now. I understand people's concerns when signs of a raging vortex appear towards the NW at this time of the year...for me the models can overstate this sypnotic,due to the fact we can often get a very strong vortex setting in as we move into December. But I tell you what,check out some of the ens..theres much uncertainty regarding the strength and location of that vortex...and quite a few that builds Heights further NE! Could we be looking to our East before much longer for the fun and games! I wouldn't be at all suprised. It seem my pep talk worked...the thread seems calmer now,and the talk of the first part of winter being scuppered as turned to...Will it snow in my backyard. We all know the drill here folks...check your window on the day itself! Little suprises will turn up left right and centre in such a volatile set up. Have fun

Guys...im quite perplexed here...I can't believe there as been so much despair over those last few GFS runs! The vortex is setting up shop,it could be game over! This is the model that went for strong Greenland ridging just a few days ago,with a vortex completely separated from its natural home.This as to be the most far fetched model I've ever witnessed in many years with its ridiculously alternating multiple runs a day! We can't be stressing over winter being down the pan,and we ate in trouble with a week of Autumn still left! Come on folks,I usually reserve my Winter therapy sessions for around end of January...dont make me bring them out early and be calling you up for a session on the couch just yet Ecm looks OK...the mean looks OK,plenty of spread in those pasta plots. GFS very likely having its weekly hissing fits. To summarise,there's a long road ahead,so don't be making calls on how good or how bad its going to be just yet! Have a stress free Xmas...Good lord don't you think the last 18 months have been bad enough! All good things come to those that wait.

It was actually light hearted banter Mike. But in future I will be calling them the pasta plots! Being as they're all the same family.

It appears tonight's ecm operational deciding to board the big dipper in Blackpool...the mean still looks pretty cold early December,and there's plenty of noise on those ravioli graphs for colder options. Ps...just a little humour...im sick to death of the word spaghetti

Just a quick mention on that...it may tie in with Exters thoughts today,but that was more along the line of there thoughts beyond December! The idea was for colder spells through next month...so any output showing milder and zonal right now is just noise...and not necessarily the signs of a big pattern change. Plus it's far to far away to give that much worry right now.

Round 2 anyone It finishes shall we say..chilly...and at least the vortex looks less organised than GFS..so gem and ecm win the day.

The GFS op was a little progressive regarding those 850s I feel...the control also was a little departed from the mean..but not without its support...not as much support for scandy blocking as the 6z run...but hey ho...this is GFS and things wouldn't be right without it throwing up several alternatives everyday.

In all fairness when have there long range forecasts ever been a good read! It all went wrong for them when they said...dont worry folks its gonna be a barbecue summer a few years back! They should have knocked it on the head then Absolutely nobody can nail a pattern 2 and 3 months ahead! Ohh and GEM looks much more promising...and let's not forget this model gets better verification stats than the GFS.

In my experiences mate..the bigger they are the harder they hit!

Oh my oh my...do I detect the first signs of the first falling snow coming into the reliable! Whatever happens...keep it away from the relatives for now!

Firstly icon looks promising for the weekend. Secondly...do I detect a reload and repeating pattern come the end of the run! And finally,signs of Heights again N/E of scandy! One to keep an eye on for sure! And lastly I'm not liking the Exeter winter update...there is far too much emphasis being placed on a warming climate for my liking...and this goes for all seasons,and not just the winter period! The hints are there for colder periods through December though! Beyond that it becomes difficult call,because its far to early to say if a strat disturbance will come along! And if it does,what kind of intensity it could be! So good signs early days...beyond that not worth stressing over.

Last night's 46 hinted at scandy heights...quite a few of those 6z ens seem to be hinting at that also. Yes it looks like a strong vortex in the wrong place,but theres Still many members having it in different positions...pardon the pun

I said yesterday the models are struggling with an evolution..today we appear ro be seeing cold upgrades,and extensions..no I don't want credit for saying that,just that you shouldn't necessarily lose heart when you see the output going milder! Swings and roundabouts,and if ECM op is anything to go by it looks like quite an upgrade.There may not be much support from the pack just yet,but watch this space @trending colder! And I have to keep pinching myself right now...November 23rd! We ain't even started this party yet! Love it. Have a great day

Yep @Ali1977cold weekend...any precipitation falling from the sky towards evening could quite easily be falling as snow. @sheikhy @Griff could well be doing the 24/7 lampost shift this weekend I wonder if the mods would be interested in a little competition for who and when will see falling snow this Weekend.. Scotland for sure...further South possible..can't be ruled out.

I was that fixated on the scandy block I forgot about Greenland I've known some cracking cold spells in the past with strong Heights there. But by and large the models seem to hint at blocking in one or several places at a time so far this year. Regarding zonal...if those charts come off...then you can kiss the Atlanatic goodbye...long live the block...down with the Atlantic. Kind of makes you think if that gulf stream is becoming weaker as well..one of many possibilities my man.

I think its a case of ebb and flow beyond this week...we still hold on to Heights to the West by and large. But for me this evening we again pick up a strong signal for scandy blocking around mid month! Looks quite strong also. Either way you look at it,blocking seems to be coming into the long range forecasts in some form or another! Brilliant post @Uncertainy fab read that was...thanks for going into thorough detail....im just the summing up man like a shorthand typist...where your the elegance part of it They always called me a GOFOR

I wonder if that's part of the reason the scandy winter forecast issued the other day for the NW Hemisphere was so positive! To me it looks like we could import some significantly cold air with any Nthlys we could get with time. ECM mean not too bad..theres still a lot of amplication in the Atlantic sector,wouldn't be any suprise if we could nudge that North at times. The op not without support amongst the ens.

What did I say guys...signals all over the place...the models are really struggling of late...you just see...watch all the models become more amplified over the course of the week...This Winter is gonna be a forecasters nightmare... But I'm sure we have a few on here will make a dam good job of giving it a punt. And look at that vortex...no signs of it migrating back to its usual home. Infact it's gone AWOL..its been that long since it left,the neighbours just won't have it back.. sorry guys...just a little meteorological humour there to keep the spirits high.

Ukmo looks OK for something a tad wintry this weekend. Beyond that is it worth the stress of what comes next! We have Exeter talking about a milder than average winter...and we apparently have the Beeb who's info comes from DTN saying the complete opposite! A weak Vortex with regular outbreaks of cold,sometimes quite harsh! Now someone here is going to be badly wrong! Who will be walking back to there corners with their tales between there legs. My honest opinion is there's a lot going on and we have overriding signals again this year! We've been here before don't forget! But never base a long range forecast on the basis that we have a warming climate,so it's more likely to be warmer than average than not! Wild fluctuating swings and harsh conditions are still going to be happening! So beyond 10 days,don't even go there...we are in the game,and that's blatantly obvious from some of the signals the experts are reading. EC46 tonight,let's hope we can see some further signals for amplication in the right places! In the shorter term its colder with a risk of something wintry come the weekend...the usual suspects applie. Beyond that...judging by the massive range of theories and ideas,just about anything is possible...but I wouldn't be suprised to see a continued theme of a weaker than normal vortex,and a continuation of a faltering Jet.

I think we can get some idea on perhaps how weak that Jet stream is currently..This area of High pressure seems in no rush to go anywhere. Can this Blocking hold firm! These situations can be very difficult to break down once they're in place. Quite a difference in where a segment of vortex resides also around day 10 compared to last run! I'm perplexed...it seems very difficult to make any kind of call beyond next weekend. Ok it becomes colder with Frost,and even a flake or 3 of snow for some...beyond that?? Will it sink,if so how long before a renewed push North again! Without any real oomph coming from the Atlantic sector we seem open to just about anything. Ps..30 days of night about to start on Horror channel...Worth watching just to see the frozen landscape of Barrow Alaska...but beware the vampires ?

Ali I'm seeing perhaps a little more Northwards extent than the last run on the Atlantic High..looks a little held more West and North!

Yeh as Ali says...slightly further West here,more of a cold feed to boot.. I wouldn't rule out a few wintry suprises towards next Weekend,especially towards evening onwards period... That deepening feature coming out of Canada is doing us know favours..

Looks like potential for a repeating pattern going on the ECM mean...and for sure it's at least seasonal,and that's no bad thing at such an early stage... Anyway that's me done for the day...having a ticking off from the missus...she said Matt if you ain't in the gym,your on netweather...I hardly see you.... Have a fine evening...I think I'm going out to buy her some chocolates..

Rally call...come on folks..The runs have been a tad underwhelming these past few days,but we reamin in a not so bad position moving forward.. And wow just check out that scandy Winter forecast for!! Blocking towards Greenland in December! Blocking over Scandy in January! And Blocking over Greenland for February!! Wowzers...talk about the song...shaking all over...well we will be Blocking all over if that comes off. It's a possibility either way,and they've obviously got there ideas on why that's a possible scenario! Either way,I've got a feeling some of these long range forecasts from the big boys could well bust this season,with lesser known ones having a better time of it! Anyway those guys brought us the saab and the volvo,so credit where credits due I say