MATTWOLVES 3

Gem packs a punch,how we all love the Canadian model.. Very nice...looks like the dogs been at the Vortex for dinner

It's got wax and wane written all over it for me folks..But in all honesty great sypnotics are wasted when it's still November! If we can keep the Alantic quite and that Atlantic ridge in place,further cold shots will come along...And that vortex needs to be kept disconnected as we move into December...Euro Heights at some point won't be a bad idea due too the fact it will put the strat under pressure! Tbh ukmo is not a bad run,and way hay mogreps temp plots...let's all meet up in the Cairngorms just before Xmas...and have our dinner at the summit Those Snow rows are growing up there..

You know what amazes me in here? So many say multiple times a day this is a bad run...then a few frames later....ohh this is more like it...its looking good now...then its...ohh it ain't gonna happen anyway! Good lord,why do we put ourselves through this umpteen times a day if its never gonna happen There's my Sunday service speech folks I think @nick sussex already delivered his To my eyes the 6z looks primed for reloads all the way through the run...similar kind of repeating pattern,but with any luck more bite to that cold the further we move down the line.

Tell you what griff,anymore of these dramas and many on here will be collapsing from exhaustion long before that ridge as. @ everyone...fortunately folks its the 18z and we all know whatever it serves up will be absent come the morning runs.. I ain't gonna be losing any sleep over it for sure.

What we have here folks is a massive case of the legendary chuckle Brotherss.. TO ME ..TO YOU!! How's this drama gonna play out over the next 7 days...I think 18z looking pretty good regarding next weekend...could be a few suprises here.. Someone cue the drum role from Eastenders.... At @tight isobar I always feel like I'm reading a Shakespeare novel when reading your dialogue...excellent stuff dear chap.

Quick glance at the EC ens and it stays cold through till months end...beyond that the spread increases as would be expected. Have a fine rest of your evenings.

Mandy it's turning colder,how cold we really don't know..there could be some snow especially if your up in the hills or you stand on a lampost in your street..(I don't recommend that though) any heavier precipitation could fall as snow further South,or you may get unlucky and stay bone dry. Heights may push into Greenland,or they may collapse into the Atlantic...the vortex may move in any direction,as its obviously punch drunk! An SSW may follow later in December,but this could all depend on how much weight santa as put on. Zonal may return in the New Year...or it may go horizontal and really confuse us. And this sums up the current mood in the thread over the last week or so...the models really are leading us up the garden path! I need a lie down cause I've now confused myself All good fun my dear..keep watching through the week ahead and we may know more in a couple of months...

You won't be saying that when ya Heating bill comes Not a bad ECM..we will certainly notice the nip in the air next week..

I'm not gonna complain here,ok,so I'm easily satisfied,but what really interests me on many of these ens is the fact the vortex looks completely out of sorts,with many of them keeping away from the NW...can this type of pattern hold? Why the hell not! Its been the same all year! The longer this kind of Hemisphere carries on the more we will increase our risks of a significant cold shot. Hey,it's the Weekend...the Xmas programmes are starting to come on TV, the lights are close to being switched on...and very soon I will be stuffing a Turkey....bloody bootifull Enjoy

Yep...this is very close too the 6z run...certainly no signs of that High sinking! At least we seem to be clearing the vortex out of Greenland...Worth keeping an eye on that Low to the West of the High though...

Rumour on the grapevine is that this morning we have some downbeat members! It's the weekend folks and nearly Xmas,so try and be Happy...and always tell loved ones each and everyday you love them! Seriously life is that short. I make that the 2nd GFS 6z run on the bounce that looks optimistic! We ain't got thus sorted by a long stretch just yet...and if it fails?? Ohh well another 3 months to go again,and probably come the end of it....we will all need time away at the Betty Ford clinic Ens support for the colder theme continues. Live it large and and go with the flo. This could be the Winter of flip flops for sure especially regarding the output.

Tell you what if we get a decent snow event from that set up I will happily take it and dance on the ceilings...I mean how many snow events do we get for Novembers end! On a lighter note,just had a thought...I used to be out clubbing with the lads on a Friday night...now I'm watching the 18z roll out with a mug of Hot chocolate! My god how times change

Better Heights into SW Greenland here than the 12s..stills looks like a segment of the purple blob could be visiting us! Surely to God that would be one hell of a chance to test those 850s evaporative cooling theories Alot could depend on that feature developing around Canada,and what kind of interaction there is...its feasible at this range,that this Low may not even develop! Makes things a tad tricky and subject to fluctuations.

Mean is OK folks.. I would say slightly colder ens than the 0z runs.

Have you noticed that feature coming out of Eastern seaboard/ Canada locale...that was much further back on the 0z run..the High could topple here,let's see where it sits within the ens and mean later! Not keen on that feature though. @Mike Poolebeat me to it. In the words of Paul Daniels your gonna like it....not a lot..that feature heads into Sw Greenland! It may not even be there come the next run!!

Many asking me how's santa getting here this year with covid restrictions and sky High fuel prices...Dont worry kids he's coming via the vortex!

I think some are using 2010 as a bench mark here for how cold it should be getting right now! Let's face it,such events are as rare as Wolves winning the Premier League! If only!!!! The general direction of travel looks too my eyes a repeated pattern of ridges and cold snaps followed by perhaps lest cold conditions in the shorter mid term..what interests me is how disorganised the vortex appears again this year and that a vast amount of ens either keep it well East of Greenland or even close to dropping on us! If we can keep this pattern holding through till mid December,its only going to promote greater cold shots! Anyway most memorable events come along just after the Xmas period ,that's not too say we are on the verge of that kind of a pattern repeat,but currently I feel the signs look promising. Still know Atlantic oomph at this stage whatsoever! As long as that remains the case we could be prone to more meaningful wintry events a few weeks down the line. The panic buttons do not need to be worn out with a couple weeks of November still to go...enjoy the ride,like I've said before it's a long road ahead,and we have to expect minor speed humps along the way! Well you do around here anyway...they're everywhere

How's about some fries with that shake! The beer really as gone to my head..thats one hell of a long post for such little context

Beer goggles or not...im bloody loving this run.

How often do we see a segment of vortex dropping over us!! Do I detect some signs of amplification towards the SW tip of Greenland..or do I have my beer goggles on.

I try not to look that far ahead mate...my nerve never holds out But we see know signs of a raging West to East pattern! Perhaps it's about time we dropped the word zonal,for perhaps Horizontal!

Cracking start guys...Blocking in place come months end!

Very respectable mean si..further on and we get huge scatter as would be expected...plenty of cold options remain though,so anyone who thinks it's a quick cold snap,then a return to mild zonal could be very much mistaken.

For me Mike Long range forecasting is still very much an infancy regarding overall success rates. We know these models take into account the atmospheric and the conditions of the oceans over these several month periods. Some of these predictions rely on the Earth system variables,which can have long time scales...many months infact) So we have the ENSO cycles which situate over the tropical Pacific and the affects of this are felt around the globe. But with a rapidly changing climate,some of these predictions are going to be more prone to error! You mention the solar activity for instance...not everyone is convinced its plays such a big role as many of us thinks it does. And to summarise when we have the Arctic regions warming at a much more rapid rate than the mid latitudes,we again generate much more wildly swinging variables. This not even taking into account about the gulf stream being much weaker than previously! I think its going to become increasingly difficult for these long range models to nail down the exact patterns as the climate shifts! Especially in the short to mid term.

Only problem is mate JMA stands for JUST MORE AGGRO!