MATTWOLVES 3

What ya think mate...we are certainly seeing the evidence of la nina right now...strong Atlantic ridge holding off the Atlantic weather machine! I'm always sceptical on these events in all honesty,yes they play a role in our conditions,but not to the extent they do in parts of the USA,Indonesia and Australia for instance. The la nina regime can increase the storminess over the Arctic regions and lead to us becoming milder and wetter later into the season...but with so many other variables at play and contrasting signals,it's probably best to keep an open mind! We've seen very positive teleconnections in the past (2019) for instance bring us nothing!and we have seen poor signals deliver us the goods. So I for one will be keeping an open mind on how this season plays out.

Can I just say guys,why is it when we are searching for cold or heat in summer,we have to start getting into a debate over which forecasting tool is best! Noaa or the ops and ens! All methods ain't fool proof! Each have there purposes,and tbh beyond a 10 day timescale,both can be made to look silly! Because the weather makes mugs of us all,and simply does not care which method your using! There is no such thing as this method is best...every method out there can be made to look stupid regarding our volatile NW Hemisphere!

Great start to early Winter here...falling snow and a slight covering. I'm starting to like the prognosis also,it's always good too see the ops showing some colder evolutions,but we are seeing a fair number of ens also hint at various cold shots further ahead! So for me I think the risks are now growing! I'm not gonna commit on robust scandy Heights or the like,but sliders and regular pm airmasses look a growing trend....so we can't rule out saying the S word now can we? Actually we can...its already snowed heavy here on the 27th November....so sing it till your hearts content...its the weather and it doesn't give a dam 0z ens by the way.

The mean highlights that secondary colder shot mid next week,and tbh it ends on better note than the 0z did...nothing overly mild there to my eyes. Not much in the op and the mean.. certainly a colder op than the 0z run. Steady as she goes right now.

Yes mate it looks a hell of a lot better than some of the output we have seen recently...vortex looks more out of sorts. That mid Atlantic ridge again trying to flex its muscles,and I have a feeling the strength of this could be making some eat there words... If we could shift those Low Heights and vortex segment coming out of NE Canada we would be looking good for another push of Heights into Greenland there. Much to ponder...but those Heights situated around the mid Atlantic could be coming to our rescue more than once for the foreseeable!

I'm beginning to like you more and more Dennis...such a level headed and pleasant individual you are...best of luck to you also...not as though you'll need it in Norway...but you get my drift. Ecm not without interest...namely a 2nd cold shot around day 5...further into the run perhaps a hint of another!! But more pleasing to my eye is the fact the vortex looks much more disorganised.

Are we gonna get that push of Heights into scandy is the question here!

Firstly folks,wherever you are,especially those in the highest risk areas...PLEASE TAKE CARE..if your out and about,be even more vigilant! These conditions can kill,so don't for one minute understate them. Secondly some promising signs from the 6z ens..quite a few ideas floating about,but nothing that says any specific pattern is certain. And as above....if you can try and stay home. Have a wonderful Weekend of weather watching.

Ok folks its been a day of not so good model watching..poor 46 for instance...and stronger signs of a strong tpv around NE Canada as an example. But do remind oneself that models are like underwear...they change on a daily basis...(at least I hope they do) Not even December yet so let's get ready for some potential action this weekend,before it becomes less cold next week...well for the south anyway,if anything it looks to stay cold further North! Brilliant late sypnotics from the 18z run...amazingly the vortex looks sliced in several pieces with a good chunk dropping through scandy...baring in mind how these models are going from showing a roaring vortex to an abliterated one over the course of a few days! So it's goodnight from him,and its goodnight from me...to coin a phrase from the great 2 Ronnie's. Anyway that's the end of my babbling...the missus is nagging me now

We still appear to have that mid Atlantic ridge in evidence...this run is way different to the last run,when it hinted at an extension of those Heights into scandy...not sure I'm liking the Arctic profile at this juncture either...all be it,a very long way off.

Looks like the 46 may be going down a different route tonight...having a go at extending Heights back into Greenland...and not to far away. Should of held fire for a bit..seems like it was shortlived..I will will wait for the next week or so to run.

Regarding predictions...im putting my head on the chopping block by stating ECM was a decent run...that 2nd cold shot looks possible,and I detect the hint of Heights East of Scandy by day 10. I may be wrong,I realise the only tool I serve to many on here is my crazy sense of humour..I don't mind being wrong...but I just love to have a crack at it...if I'm wrong,so be it...life goes on and there's a hell of a lot worse things in life to be worrying about these days! Everyone keep up the great work...this forum is just fab,If you're unsure in yourself....dont stress...have a little go yourself....im wrong all the time....and I love it cause sooner or latter im gonna nail it

This could be positive guys..vortex pulling out of Greenland,perhaps some Heights about to push towards sw Greenland,and with a potential Heights build around scandy. Are you ready for chase 1000...thats how many it will be come winters end Positive signs here though,yes a long way off...but that's want we need to see. Massive difference from the last run...definitely signs of movement from the vortex and those NE Heights. Let's hope tonight's 46 goes thus way also.

Ukmo also brings a chance of something colder towards day 6,and we have quite a chunk of vortex residing close to scandy here... @Dennis must be very happy about that.

A good deal of cold pooling over scandy though here. I would be more concerned if the cold air was pushed much further East and North. Let's see if we can get hints over scandy pressure on the 46 towards mid month! It could be around this stage when we get the next meaningful shot. Thankfully it's very early yet.

Icon insists on another bite at the cherry come later next week...and perhaps another reload come day 8! Sometimes other models will follow the icon...dont hold me to this,but its been known! I'm optimistic Exeter may have this wrong, Although I may have a serious cold bias,and be howling at the moon Come on guys stop talking about West Midlands snowfall,I'm waxing down the sledge runners here

I would imagine there are a thousand members on here who would say the opposite! WHAT IS TO LIKE! Not a great extended outlook by any means though. In all fairness the oz output looked exactly the same 24hrs ago,before improving during the day. I'm not convinced the vortex being placed towards the NW spells the end for a month though(like some are hinting at) And there seems to be one hell of a lot of faith being put on that mjo cycle too get us out of trouble..Far to many variables and contrasting signals which can end up overriding one another in the current climate for my liking. So just a watching brief from me today. Hopefully tonight's EC46 will shed some more light on the chances of Heights building around scandy next month.

One to watch next week...leading edge snow event...long way off of course,but a little excitement all the Same.

Hey Shaky...incoming Nthly part 2....pure Weather porn

It looks like it's heading for shakys backyard. Bet he will be up all night now Still very much a nowcasting event,and let's not forget how met warnings can appear from thin air..last winter,I remember an area of snow developing and being placed in a Amber alert warning around the evening time...these things can just hit you out of the blue That lot came from nowhere last December. 20211115_203827.mp4

There is no land mass when it's a direct Nthly...its travelling across sea,hence a gradual moderation of the 850 temps...if it was travelling across land mass,the air would be quite a bit colder! Unless your making reference to the land mass it encounters as it travels from Scotland,further South!

Sorry Dennis I wasn't having a dig at you mate..just a little meteorological humour...I was so taken back by your profile picture I missed the part about you being from Norway ?? Great to have you onboard,hopefully you can offer us a little hope from your part of the world in due course.

I think you've just drawed that up yourself mate...thats how desperate things are getting

Ecm mean perhaps bringing a reload on day 7,perhaps more keen than the op...beyond that!!!mmmmm,the met update for the month ahead looks poor for December,but lets be honest,we have seen them rewrite these updates many times a month in the past! Basically I'm not gonna get too stressed over that update! Do I detect amplification to the East of the vortex further down the line! We are probably going to need some stress putting on that blob at some point down the line. In the meantime chill and have a glass of wine...or a mug of cocoa if ya like me. On a lighter note,I've just realised it takes me a couple of minutes to upload a post,and another 2 hours to correct all the spelling mistakes

Ecm 12z seems to keep most of it North N/E and perhaps central/Western parts mate...subject to many changes though at this stage.