MATTWOLVES 3

Funny thing if you think about it mate...The MJO does not cause the nina events direcrly,yet it plays a role in the speed up of there developments..Are you thinking these active cycles may interfere with the intensity of the current la nina?

So it appears the MJO could be getting a move on through the gears...keep in mind the higher phases are strongly linked to Blocking regimes and these active phases will drive a negative NOA. Just incase some are not aware,these cycles can take around 2 weeks to start to affect the North Atlantic profile...so there's a good chance that some of these current ens are now picking upon this mjo cycle around mid month..Lots to play for... And for some reason I'm feeling this time around NW Europe could end up fairing much better than the Eastern side of the States...who I feel may struggle this season.

It's Friday its 5 to 5..hang on a sec that was crackerjack I've got that Friday feeling today...so much love to everyone and I've got plenty to share... The ens are showing some serious Blocking in affect...strong Heights gather around scandy and through the urals,and some hints of them pushing North and West....we could start to put the strat under big pressure later this month...one to watch. In the shorter term lots happening...could be a suprise snowfall coming to you very soon. Great to see @DiagonalRedLineposting again,was worried he had ended up in the netweather dungeons or something Have a fab one...you know the drill.

There are some cracking ens tonight...I actually feel confident of quite a shake up come mid month...if I'm wrong,so be it..The vortex looks stressed on quite a few ens...some want to build heights further North into the Arctic...WAA...The urals block pushing further stress on the strat...theres potentially alot going on,with plenty of water to go under the bridge just yet...but I like what I'm seeing. Just to finish...3rd of December today,and guess what? Its snowing and settling...3rd time already...absolutely know need to panic....I think we could be getting many suprises this time around. A very good night...

When I've managed to read this I will be asking you a few questions...should be sometime next Christmas. Excellent stuff Xander...

Apologies folks...I've completely lost the plot today...the anomalies I posted were from Mondays update... More to follow as they update. In all fairness we are heading in a similar direction anyway...quite a blockade of Heights there. So if we do go a tad zonal for a while,it's not going on this be lasting any real length of time.

Ok folks I'm out of retirement...I've let off my steam I'm liking the 46 anomalies...some strong hints of extensive Hights across the UK in towards scandy big time.

Firstly the Atlantic has not been in control for over a year now...so your just using past pretences to highlight the fact when it does...its all over...the reason I mentioned the ens were because of the fact we have some tropical forcing taking place,and there's a chance that some ens may begin to hint at changes! I may be wrong...but I highlight the possibility! Ensembles can be a good indicator of a change in pattern,especially if there enough of them making the same hint! It's very easy to say they're not gonna be correct when it comes to cold...but there bound to be correct if its Atlantic dominating conditions they show! I mean let's be honest here...one minute this forum is ecstatic after a few good 12z runs...then in despair when the 0z runs go downhill...and hey presto,back to euphoric when the 12s improve again. This is not me having a go at you mate,I respect your opinions...perhaps this is me having a little rant. But good god...2 days into winter and I already feel like I'm spent out.. time for me to take a time out...more worrying concerns to deal with right now. Happy hunting,and don't give in...when your down,and you think your out,the only way is up from that point. Expect to see some marked improvements beyond the next few days.

Mate you seem to be throwing in the towel on the back of a few runs...and your literally saying Decmber looks done and dusted....I've lost count of the amount of times I've said you shouldn't be lead into total despair on the back of each and every op run...it does the person or anyone else,know good whatsoever! There's alot going on...and what's just been stated on here by a few,regarding the gfs ens holding something very positive further into the month...I pointed out about some Tropical forcing going on just now...this could have implications on our conditions very soon..theres a chance some of those ens may be hinting at this now...it may still be a little early...but bare in mind it's the background drivers that the models get there projections from... I can't believe how I feel like I need to lift some posters on here when a few bad runs make them feel its all over! There's alot going on...we can't even determine an accurate forecast for the next 5 days due to major uncertainty over that Low pressure....and do try to remind oneself that there's still 28 days of this month to come...thats 4 weeks....thats a hell of a long time in weather terms! Will be interesting to see if the 46 picks up on some of these background drivers.

What ya thinking mate...the flow looks North of West come the end of the run..with a segment of vortex dropping further into the North Atlantic...surely would still be pretty cold air,even taking into account some moderation.. Do I detect the pattern trying to push Heights further out of the urals quadrant! I wouldn't say this is a bad run...but the uncertainty still looks key! And it's better to see more of the vortex dislodged further away from home. Plus we still have low Heights around S Europe Judging by the Exeter thinking...perhaps more of these fronts diving SE...the risk of rain turning to snow at times and with it Frost and ice over the next couple of weeks...I think we are back in the game...a few days back it looked mainly mild and uninspiring tbh.

Yeh I'm aware of this Georgina,it can be difficult at times to follow even when your quite knowledgeable! There will be many contrasting views on this Forum,and you will learn alot,but also very sensible to keep an open mind...and as you become better skilled in this art we call forecasting, you will be better prepared to make your own judgements! But always remember one golden rule...background signals lead the models...whatever they are showing,the models will eventually cater into there forecasts of these downstream changes for instance. So MJO cycles are quite important regarding what cycle we are entering(the higher the better)...The strength of the Vortex and where its situated will also be a big player in how we pan out for this part of the world. Then you have all the big events across the tropics...standing waves etc...knock on affects from these can take quite a time to have implications on our atmospheric conditions. So whatever is taking place right now may not be showing on the current model output...but could well be in a 2 or 3 weeks time. Never let sole Operational runs cloud your judgement,and take long range model forecasts with a large pinch of salt.... as there will always be a large degree of climatology normal bias factored in at such long lead times. @blizzard81 great minds think alike..either that or we are posting from the same household mate

I hate to keep harping on about the same thing here,but how on earth can you say the seasonal models have called this correctly? You would need to be at least half way through the winter to make that kind of call! And regarding CFS..its bit like going to costcutters for ya shopping,when we've got access to the Harrods of models out there! In the short term...snow possible tonight,I'm not expecting a great deal though as milder air chases in behind it. Perhaps a greater chance of something wintry over the weekend as temps begin to fall again...and perhaps more of a chance of suprise snowfall during Sunday night,and into Monday!. Beyond that I just don't care. As Danny Glover used to say in Lethal Weapon...im to old for this Sh@t

Just to add a little more thinking towards this...This still looks the case irrespective of the support for Height rises towards the NE,though perhaps too much upstream inertia to back the pattern fully West. So perhaps the optimum time in the UK revolves around the standing wave edging East through the tropics. There is likely to be some feedback time on this process, so could be a while before felt. So what the hight frequency tropical signal does during December will be off interest regarding attempts to kick start a flip on the pattern.

Hey folks if you wanna see commitment and die hard dedication....and your ever feeling a tad down over poor model runs,just read a couple of Shaky posts....he's guaranteed to get ya having that Friday feeling. That's you on 24hr snow duties now mate...God help the missus Ecm a decent run for me,and by far the best of the day...next big question is...Will the other models now follow it...or will Mighty ecm have a backdown tomorrow! Stay tuned for more riveting commentary in the days ahead....who needs the soaps when you've got this!

It's charts like these where you just know your in the game...look at the 850s to the NE/E... Me liking this alot....yes we can see the uncertainty...but this very much puts us in a game that gfs put us in a while back,before largely dropping the idea altogether.

I will say this once....yes its the first day of winter...and to claim we already need a major ssw to save it....is bordering on insane...have you any idea what it's like for me and others on this Forum who spend hour after hour day after day week after week to study the models...hoping for the first signs...and then to have to listen to statements saying this! It feels like at times...why bother! @Anon90 have a little patience please...if things look bad come mid January,then perhaps its justified....but right now!!! I've already read enough posts today to make me feel like giving it neck for a few days... Output looks very much undecided moving forward...Let's see what Ecm brings...and you know what??if its bad,there's always tomorrow...and you guessed it....Still only 2nd December.

I wouldn't say 3 months left is running out of time mate Those who think we are in trouble for December regarding the strengthening vortex....dont be so sure! Rule nothing out in this complex situation. The ens show we have a multitude of possibilities on the table..they are certainly not all singing from the same hymn sheet! And good people I would just like to wish you a merry Xmas month...yes silly season begins today...and we have a month of it to endure. Have fun. @sheikhyyour jumping the gun there mate by assuming ECM may become flatter...Still along way to go.

Keeps a zonal affair out of the question...with a strong pv towards the NW,we need some kind of Blocking to the E/NE...also good to see low Heights in the right places...beggars can't be choosers,but I understand some on here want sypnotics more suited to Alaska and the NW territories!

I really don't care what the twitter crew have to say...in all honesty most of its only done to capture new followers!. There is plenty of the 18z ens keeping low Heights towards SE Europe while building heights across the NE...so there's more than a good hint right now.

You say it may slide Mike....judging by some of the posts and tweets being brandished around in here tonight....we could do with sliding into next Winter!

Temps around 4-6c and quite unsettled...could be cold enough for something wintry at times..and keep in mind how flat Holland is!

It's not a bad set of ensembles by a long stretch...I think today we are just seeing the fluctuating output we come to expect in our next of the woods,and with a very strangely set up Hemisphere.

I tell you what boys and gals...there is plenty of interest from those 12z ens...and quite a few that want to build Heights through Scandinavia. We have a very interesting sypnotical situation here...we still look primed for some kind of Blocking,even though that strong vortex that shows towards NE Canada on many runs.. Is it going to be knocked down with a killer blow somewhere along the line is the big question..but it looks a very intriguing Northern Hemisphere right now...and pretty exciting tbh.

Most definitely Pete.. the answer is in the explanation you point out there! Greater warm air advection into the polar regions would equal a greater possibility of strat events! AGW would most likely bring greater risks of severe weather conditions at anytime of the year! And not necessarily mean an end to the Winter in the short to mid term...beyond that is way to complicated,as mother nature tends to be good at balancing herself out. But I would most definitely say that strat events have become increasingly more common in the last few years....Big question is will we endure one this winter! And if we do keep with this favourable NH profile,would a strat event serve to scupper such good sypnotics! For me if we are stuck in a zonal rut,then we most definitely do need one to break the cycle...with the current sypnotics...im not so sure! @Cold Winter Nightthanks for that update...and I do think some forget the lag time of these mjo cycles....it does take some time for these events to be felt downstream...

Yes good post my man...firstly I think the 0z runs are encouraging...secondly I feel the gfs is gradually playing catch up yet again. Just to point out Tams pointed out to me the other day that the tropical convergence zone standing wave that is moving East across the tropics could have longer term implications heading into winter,regarding blocking potential. The signal for amplification Is greater with an increased tropospheric pathway to the strat. So basically we are looking for fronts to grind to a halt with pressure building in situ,with the jetstream from upstream fragmenting and splitting to allow the colder air from the NE/E in. The vortex strength towards the NW could scupper this,but there is currently growing support for downstream amplification. If this comes off we could have a good chance of evolving a -NAO through December and possibly January! But like pointed out,this is not set in stone...nothing is regarding weather forecasting. But I think I will take that over the current met 3 month update....most likely to be mild and wet...but could still be cold,could be wintry Hazzards but less likely...matt lucas....yeh but no but yeh!! Obviously a strong imprint from la nina there...which would encourage colder conditions in December,followed by much more energy over the Arctic into the New Year...bringing milder wetter conditions here! But like I've said before I'm not totally sold on how these events influence our conditions downstream... and for me there seems to be at least a 25% input of current global warming influencing there extended outlooks...and that goes for every season...im not completely sold on that idea also. Lots to sort out over the next few days...and I wouldn't be suprised to see the 12s strengthen the signal for cold again.