MATTWOLVES 3

Hell yehhhhh. But perhaps a tad uncertain...some runs less cold amongst that lot...be interesting to see the extended out to day 14.

I'm liking this..just check out the eye of Heights over the Arctic...and we also see Heights attempting to spread into East scandy come the end...Im sure the 87 cold snap had the Heights pushing out of Russia towards scandy...then boom...frigid air was on tap to the NE...and its pretty rare to be seeing such intense cold there at this stage... Again are the met missing something...or are us lot barking mad. Tell you what folks...tonight's EC46 is gonna be a pressure cooker situation...any takers for the updates...I may be hiding behind a very large curtain

I've got an idea folks...let's start a debate over whether the 850s will be cold enough...

Monday morning blues mate....never say NEVER! Big EC46 tonight. Gem is a peach...let's do this.

I can't help but think at times that we have so much data and knowledge available to us in these days......that we seem to over complicate things by stating we need numerous favourable sypnotics in our favour! And we can get lost within this data to the point we can easily Start to downplay any favourable circumstances! Remember the good old days,especially the more middle aged and older folks on here...The Beeb would say we have a cold snap on the way!! Could be snow!! No dramas no stress,and more often than not it would come off! Now with all the info and expertise some of us have,we instantly start looking for the cracks to appear for it to go wrong! I think this is the main factor that drives many of us up the walls....especially when we are desperate for a certain outcome! I balme meteociel and the like for giving us far to much power! Seriously we need the good old countryfile forecast back when Bill Giles and the likes used to deliver the goods! Beyond that,it's probably best we enter this model watching lark with a very open mind....and be prepared for the worse kind of outcomes,and basically be able to take it on the chin.

Yep,I let my heart rule my head yet again. Even though I've stated many a times on here how I think the GFS is a complete waste of time(especially the op and control runs,I find myself being sucked into my own hype! There was never cross model agreement regarding all the ens etc..we had a dodgy EC46 also,so i was always apprehensive.. The way forward looks rather mixed....often cold in the North,milder at times further South,if this colder air digs further south at times we could still get a few wintry suprises. Regarding Height rises to the NE right now...very unlikely....and regarding Height rises to the NW...less likely...far too much energy in that neck of the woods right now...hopefully we see a shift further along the line. Mogreps ens probably highlight those at times coldish temps....so at least feeling a bit more seasonal at times. Now I need a year out to recover from the 1st failed cold chase....I did warn last week that there will be many of em to come this winter! So cold crew don't be ashamed,we got it wrong...join me at Mattcoldcamp.com.uk I'm here for the duration and I'm ready to listen to your ramps and concerns...we treat everyone equal here....even those mild fanatics get a chance

Blind hope casting?? We are giving a run down on what the latest models are hinting at...I've also spoken with more than one very knowledgeable person who think the signs look good! Exter have been known to backdown! And if those super computers are so great...can you tell me what on earth happened to the failed 2019 really cold winter! I will tell you what happened! The big boys got it wrong....we all get in wrong...whether amateurs or professionals! To call it hopecasting is a little harsh to some of the very technical posters that Grace this forum. As anyone else noticed!! We ain't even got this 2nd cold blast in yet,and some are already pointing out how it will go wrong if it does Get the snow in first and the cold will follow

It's not going over the top mate...we are at the end of November and it's already snowed a couple of times....the cold to the NE and East looks far more widespread than we've seen for a long long time....and we are viewing output from the main models that now hint strongly and further reinforcements! It's not all about what past events brought us,and being unlucky! Just a little more to add here.. if the next low that comes in has sharper disruption,and if that occludes it would be at an angle to pull the cold West.

So much improved you just couldn't believe it was from the Same model...this situation is now getting serious...now let's place some bets on whether Exeter take it seriously....come on guys...even your own model is hinting at it..

Big improvement from the oz run guys Looking good here I feel...and I most definitely feel Tamara is onto something with her latest thoughts regarding this set up,and moving forward.

Personally I think the ecm is trending in the right direction...it will come kicking and screaming to the gfs stable...but trust me it won't come quietly The ens should be more telling later

It looks good....no it doesn't....yes it does...Good job I'm a pro,otherwise I would be confused. Let's have a look at the big 3 at 144hrs

Firstly folks its Sunday...its November,and I'm seeing some great snow pics! Just started trying to again here...pretty fab for so early in the season. Secondly we have a little model disagreement currently regarding the outlook...GFS and ECM at loggerheads perhaps...but I am noticing with ECM that there's plenty of ensemble support for more colder options on the table... Now the main part,I've had a chat with our very own Tamara and she most gratefully gave me some insight to where we may be heading with all of this. The signal for a Scandinavian High has good support diagnostically based on the likely Asian Mountain torque c/o the tropical convergence zone standing wave that is moving West across the tropics. This has longer term implications also heading into winter in terms of Blocking potential. So the signal for downstream amplification is becoming greater with an increased Tropospheric pathway to the strat. So we are looking for a signal of occluding fronts grinding to to a halt close to the UK as pressure builds in situ,and the jetstream from upstream fragments and splits,this would allow continental air to come from the East. So this is a possibility,not a certain outcome,based on the lobe vorticity to the NW,but the signal does support the downstream amplification to enable it to happen. So we do have some signs for perhaps a little joy moving forward. Now roll on the 12s.

You do realise the met are wrong quite alot don't you! And more especially when it comes too nailing cold sypnotics! The ECM was also quite an outlier at times during that run! Take a look at the ens,there is growing support for something colder.

I feel the ECM op could have lost its way a little this morning. We are used to seeing GFS pick up a signal strongly,then a few days later the other models jump onboard...the GFS backs down,and we end up with an halfway house of solutions! I'm a little more hopeful this time,there are a large amount of colder runs appearing on the ECM 0z suite this morning...more than last nights 12z run infact.

Get in there me babies I need a lie down...its all gerrin to much. Who needs the soaps when you've got this much suspense.

Yeh but we all know how quickly they can flip there forecasts! I still can't get 2019 out of my head....day after day after day of....cold wintry conditions from the NE and East look the most likely....and absolutely zilch. I've been left scarred for life... The 18z looks pretty pokey for this next Ntly plunge mid week..can we build upon it.

Looking at the extended ensembles,I'm seeing perhaps a greater amount of colder runs! More so than the last couple of days...one to watch @potentially trending colder.com

Well the commentary for sure is excellent...but come on guys,it's Saturday its the final normal weekend before Xmas kicks in next week. And hey...what the hell...how often have we seen a scandy high being modelled by not just GFS,but now ECM.. LOVE IT LONG TIME

Ladies and gentleman....im proud to announce we now have cross model agreement at day 4! The big question being...Will we see snow!

Early days folks but I'm feeling optimistic winter may be about to start in a way that gives us a chance. There's much uncertainty regarding the models,but there are many hints that we are about too see repeated cold chances. And as you know I'm a glass half full kind of guy. As always excellent commentary in here today. And as always have a great evening.

Come on guys Im walking round an aldi supermarket here,and I just dropped me pears.. I'm gerring a feeling in me water here

Worth keeping an eye on around day 5 into 6...perhaps a leading edge snow event.

I can't keep up with all your places of residency Nick...I think you've got houses all over Europe mate Yeh icon not without interest...could be worth keeping an eye on mid next week as well.

I always thought it was due to the fact its nearly always punch drunk when it delivers its forecast