[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

10 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Please mummy make this diabolical weather stop...36 hours of continous rain and counting!

Just imagine if that had all been snow.  

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

10 minutes ago, Northwest NI said:

Just wow  

Is that grit ??  Or snow ?

Just now, DAVE_ALLEN said:

Is that grit ??  Or snow ?

That’s worthy of an amber warning  

 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I live at nearly 500 feet, the next highest point is way down in The Mournes and I ain't driving there!

Are you downwind of the sea ?  

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

1 minute ago, LRD said:

I didn't want this cold this time round but, yeah, it is at least interesting. Feb 2023 was one of the most boring months I can ever remember. At least stuff is happening now even though I don't want some of it to happen

Well after a month or more of relentless rain in December and early January, and then six weeks of dry mundane weather, perhaps we are in for four more weeks off cold and wet/stormy weather. Should help to avert a drought for at least a month.

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

We know, yet all we have is sleet.

Can you drive up any elevation to see if it’s snowing higher up ?

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

Just look at those temps.  15C in the sun on Sunday. Even teens further north where the amber alert snows are falling.  This could be a rapid thaw and then flood come Sunday night in those areas. Then a huge ice rink by Tuesday with a huge potential gale blowing along the channel in between times. 
 

so who here likes weather ??

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Ditto for most of Northern Ireland. I should be 5 hours into an 18 hour snow fest at over 400 feet. Just rain with a hint of sleet.

Shocking forecast.

Northern Ireland is now in the amber zone

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

8 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

4 months of model watching, and right in the middle of the Amber zone and this is what I’ve got! You couldn’t make it up. Not convinced we’ll get much more tonight  either.

I’ve seen bigger coverings of salt on the road

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

26 minutes ago, MJB said:

This will rule a  few people out 

Tonights snow over England and Wales does get going but soon turns to rain tomorrow morning 

A poor return for such a long chase 

Most of the conurbations will see wet snow or rain according to Aiden.  All the hype and now this 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition]

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

We need to keep an eye on this feature, developing out in the, Atlantic, its quite a nasty little feature  

AIf the track of this feature takes it through the English Channel, if the colder remains in place in the south to bring very large falls of snow. 
 

One to keep an eye on?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, Stuie said:

Look where the centre of the low is Midnight Thurs.

That’s corrected south massively in just 24 hours expect that trend to continue.  
the current wave in southern counties has set up a boundary outflow in the tropopause and these features can draw low centres towards them impacting the incoming low’s trajectory 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Just now, nick sussex said:

There could certainly be some fireworks in the north with the sweet spot getting some very large snow totals .

I certainly think an amber warning will be issued if that fax chart verifies .

North downs certainly seem to be the sweet spot currently.  What time is the next fax out @nick sussex? 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Wth latest fax gets the front only as far as south/central mids for thursday friday!!gfs are you gona be put to sleep once again!!

I’d say it won’t get that far. Fax chart versus radar.  The precip is heading due east. Very little north or south corrections. The fax takes the snow south today before another Perturbation brings more snow east later this evening.  The best guide for later will be the next 0z fax issued later on today. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

The current time fax chart 

shows a stationary gently waving front across southern England. The fax called a very similar  position a Few day ago and  I concur with @nick sussex that normally  in the reliable fax charts perform best. 
the snow line is bringing large falls across southern England currently away from the immediate coast. 
the fax shows small occlusion waves coming into the SW now. Expect these to pep up the snow even more keeping the snow falling in similar locations all day. 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

A good 10cm around Forest Green. Quite a heavier fall than in December here

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Some quite extraordinary goings on at the moment !

The models really are making a mess of the current set up . The ECM seems very bullish now or weakening the low and taking if further south .

The ECM ensembles are even interested in solutions even further south. 

A cluster now showing London remaining at negative 850 values throughout at the time of the infamous low tracking through the UK . 

This wasn’t the case on the 00hrs run .

The UKMO fax charts continue to have the low deeper and further north than the raw output .

The mystery deepens around this ! 

 

 

 

@nick sussex must be causing some real headaches interpreting where the 850’s gradient will fall along the south coast. 
 

It’s like all the Synoptics are changing all of the time.  When is the next fax out ? 21:30 ?

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

21 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Also gives the south a widespread 2-5cms tonight.

Further 2-5cms further north in the area you show tomorrow evening.

Somewhere that managed to be on the northern side of the night time front and in the snow part on Wednesday evening might get 10-12cms.

Also worth watching for overperformances in these set-ups. The early Dec 2010 snow spell was a similar evolution but in reverse (E-W) forecasted to give about 2-5cms but ended up widely giving 2-5 inches, and some places got much more than that as well. Same may well apply for the afternoon system

The thing that gives me the best indication so far is. I’ve not seen one gritter and the sky is clear out with a full moon. and BA haven’t cancelled any flights yet … that’s normally the kiss of death down south 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

22 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Well well well.

I did say there will be south adjustments, and if we are pushing it. I think even more south adjustments may occur.
Also, *maybe* models are also underestimating precipitation. Happened last night for example. Models had barely anything and reality was.. It was a much bigger and more precipitation than it thought.

I think things have just got more interesting.. Will be interesting to see ECM control once it's out! On to the 18z!!

Well snow is falling already in Sw Ireland from the incoming Atlantic warm front. And it that’s possible there. A further shift south could well bring snow along the south coast. 

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Surely surely they would have changed it and moved it south by now!!!!that looks way off!!!unless ecm goes north thats really poor from the guys that are drawing these faxes!!

Apparently a woman rang into the metoffice to say she’d heard a snowstorm is on the way…..  

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

Is it just me or… does the Greeny high not seem to be in a rush to scarper off to the north west ?

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

So the very latest thinking from the met offixe correlates nicely with the T36 fax chart as w head into Wednesday night.  
 

the heaviest falls seem to match the track of the low over head with west and East Sussex, parts of Kent, Surrey and the Home Counties seeing a good covering of snow by dawn on Thursday. For some reason hampshire and further west is more of a complicated wintry mix. Maybe because of the less cold air mixing from the west as the low passes. It’s very fine detail here. Even 30 miles south would change these areas to snow. 

Then for Thursday night. The second low tracking into the borders brings in a much larger warm sector which needs to be monitored closely. Image shows sectors for ease of reference. 

To the north of the warm front into Scotland could see some very large snowfall totals but much milder air a little further south will see a thaw setting in. But for how long. As further cold air is back in the mix for the weekend and beyond.

[Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

31 minutes ago, EML Network said:

Mets latest offerings.

Mostly rain in the South tomorrow daytime

Snowline for Thursday...Leeds Northwards ?

Well what does the last frame show , the southern counties are all white

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

40 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:

For what it's worth (which is nothing), the GFS has 10cm+ quite widely in the south by T36.

This matches the latest Met O updates warnings.  And the northern extent matches the GFS precip. Are we edging towards firming up the snow distribution I wonder

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not a single 06 hrs op run backs the T72 hours fax chart location of the low.

 

I think the late shift probably has a or two whilst the pencils were out sketching the fax charts