[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

20 minutes ago, Angus Mcoatup said:

Personally, I think we are in for a lengthy cold spell here at least 2 weeks , if not more, and I’m no weather forecaster.

Which makes you far more qualified than most at the beeb   

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

That's strange, still -1.2c here

A minor warm sector has always threatened this evening, although it should have mixed out by mid morning tomorrow. Then the temps should drop away again.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'm just taking a look at the latest models and it seems to me like the window is shortening and if anything the winds may stay just a little too northerly based. The Euro4 did suggest that might be the case earlier today having something closer to a mid Kent streamer instead, but obviously based further west than normal. Call it a hybrid!

Lets hope that the winds can be just a little more easterly, its close enough that it really wouldn't require much of a shift to get a more true ENE in and really kick start things.

How has it been for you today. Did you get much of an accumulation from the larger flakes this afternoon. We are around 0.5cm - 1cm now with a few piles of snow grains in places. The first signs on the radar now of a streamer setting up over the Thames Estary on the 7pm radar.  looks like it will deliver for Hants and Surrey, moving out into the Channel over Poole Harbour, Id say. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

If your snow depths are not as you had hoped for. Next week could well deliver. What temp is that aloft in E Anglia ??

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

22 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Classic GFS moment, create the near perfect set up for severe cold and then...

 

Throw in a ridiculous Atlantic dartboard low.

NOw.. imagine if that dart board could become a channel low.. I wonder what the outcome would be

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

 

Large flakes coming down now.. Epic - Just needs to settle.

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

2 minutes ago, Alpine glow said:

Love a chart that's been scribbled on.  I scroll down for them!  Thanks

I should have scribbled in more snow ....

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Snizzle/snow boundary. North of the black line its moderate snow falling. South of the black line its more of the snizzle before it fades later towards dusk. 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Moderate flakes of snow now south of Guilford. No more snizzle, proper flakes -1.1C snow melting on impact on ground which is a bit odd, but at last .. snow flakes not dandruff.

 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Epic scenes in Chessingon now .

Thats polystyrene you've sprinkled over  that...  

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Been snowing here non stop since 7am. Still snowing and sticking to everything. Gritters are out in force

They've chucked so much grit in our street, its deeper than the snowgrains.. Grrrr.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Looks a bit similar to this morning? maybe NW Kent/Sussex getting in to the act a bit more, so no Thames Streamer and a ENE wind?

Wind at City Airport has veered 50o Between NE and ENE any streamers will head more towards London, and Surrey and Kent away from the kent coast.. imo.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

29 minutes ago, john mac1 said:

So still got very light snow but there a change. It’s starting to settle on the garden furniture and garage roof. 
 

I’ve even got a snow drift

Theres a good couple of mm in the crack there.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

5 minutes ago, Snow Slave said:

Yeap, just wasted a load of money on snow gear for 3 kids, dunno why i do it to myself every single time.

Although its a waste of money at this point, i would of been more annoyed if we had a decent amount of snow and they didnt have the gear to stay out all day and enjoy it. 

Just hope maybe we get a decent freeze tonight and a surprise for tomoz?

Sweet of you to buy ya brother snow gear, sure he really apprecaites you doing that. 

 

A couple of kids are out in the street playing in the salt that the gritter dumped in the road. Its a good couple of mm deep. In fact we've had more grit than snow grains. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

First little snow flurry has made it to Guilford area.. Its coming !

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

....That said here is the latest snow radar on Met O site. If you speed it up you can see a steamer almost within the occluded front. Two things to note. A thick band of snow is heading into the coast of Suffolk in the next hour or so. Very light snow is moving towards London, from the North east, that can be tracked back to Norfolk. Speed up the playback and you'll see it. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Met Office sticking to its guns on Persistent Heavy snow and large accumulations. Looking at the radar in addition, It feels like those who have snow will be the ones who see even more snow today, to the West and North of this area an extensive dry cloud shield is in place. The cloud sheild should edge away by late Monday hopefully allowing a colder ENE feed in with the possibility, hopefully, of snow showers making it further west than todays snow.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I'd not worry about those apps at all frankly at this point.

Stick with what the radar is showing you and compare to what the high resolution models are showing at the time. That will be the way forward from now on.

I *strongly* suspect a Thames streamer will set up at some point within the next 72hrs, the exact angle of the wind will determine the exact zone of highest risk but I've seen enough hints (and thats all it will be at this distance in time) to suggests its a realistic possibility. May only have an hour or two lead in time to know its going to happen and the models may well miss it even then.

How are we looking Kold. IM over in Godalming about 10 miles towards the snow from you.  Im thinking our best changes are 8am to Noon tomorrow ?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Yes for regions to the West of London. The Met Office only has intermittent light snow now.

Louise Lear said the same thing just now, however the Orange warning seems to have moved in land further in south Kent. 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Louise Lear on Beeb now.. Shes saying Snow is nailed on for Essex and Kent, and that it could extend west towards the London Area.. One would assume with a NEast wind some of it would blow South of London towards the Sussex's too. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

10 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

Actually I preferred it. Gives more chance for heights to build north and suck in more cold air from the east!

Ive been saying on and off for a while now. This is what I think will happen. The Atlantic LP wont come in.. yet. and when it does it will be too late. I think the Scandi HP will move over the Faroes. the LP will weaken and pass far to our south. and merge with a LP extending SW from Siberia.  And for now the Atlantic LP may well phase with the small LP within its circulation taking it no where..

[Meto Uk Further Outlook]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its quite cool to watch the UKMO, because the front obviously gets quite the undercut on the UKMO, this is the exact same time as the charts I posted of the UKMO earlier:

Of course as you say once the front clears even colder upper temperatures flood across the region, which does make sense as to why they'd place it further south I suppose.

However whats odd about the fax charts is there is still a reasonable amount of precipitation along the frontal boundary and its still sitting broadly in the same location as it was, heres 18z:

I'm not really sure the frontal shield would be that far north if the front really as far SE as the fax chart is showing?

My only ideas is it could  be that we've actually got a load of embedded north sea convection in that 18z chart above and the frontal boundary is indeed further south which would make sense if the front is as far south as that fax chart suggests.

Then again I'm sure they've got the details to make a better call old armchair forecaster me haha!

MEtO have an almost exact match on their latest forecast just released. And you are quite right, this does not correlate with the fax charts. All of the precip out at sea will eventually move in a general WSW direction. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

19 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Latest fax charts moves the frontal activity away with remnants of any milder air from the SE more quickly on this chart on Sunday. The bonus being the air mass will be much colder in the circulation , hence I think a upgrade for snow potential in the SE of England for Sunday of a convective type.

C

Theres the smallest HP ridge there from Birmingham to S Ireland.  If anywhere was to see less snow on Sunday I would imagine it would be here. And Essex and Kent by contrast would have a snow upgrade if this fax materialises as shown

 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

40 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

Umm? 1cm for the south on that run? There was a whole snow storm are you joking?

I think he's talking grit and salt depths..

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

46 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO has big time upgraded the snow threat on Sunday, looks similar to the GFS but no warm sector to speak of over the SE:

5-10cms across the SE, 15cms N.Kent and Suffolk.

@nick sussex that run is about the worst possible way to evolve out of the pattern. If its going to go like that, may as well have that first low further north so we can get snow out of that!

Maybe its me... but that has mm, Kold.. Not cm ??