DAVE_ALLEN

Just imagine if that had all been snow.

Is that grit ?? Or snow ? That’s worthy of an amber warning

Are you downwind of the sea ?

Well after a month or more of relentless rain in December and early January, and then six weeks of dry mundane weather, perhaps we are in for four more weeks off cold and wet/stormy weather. Should help to avert a drought for at least a month.

Can you drive up any elevation to see if it’s snowing higher up ?

Just look at those temps. 15C in the sun on Sunday. Even teens further north where the amber alert snows are falling. This could be a rapid thaw and then flood come Sunday night in those areas. Then a huge ice rink by Tuesday with a huge potential gale blowing along the channel in between times. so who here likes weather ??

Northern Ireland is now in the amber zone

I’ve seen bigger coverings of salt on the road

Most of the conurbations will see wet snow or rain according to Aiden. All the hype and now this

Well, the snow seems to have arrived, settled, then broken down with a thaw setting in, and now mild air is knocking on the door all in the space of 12 hours. Never used to happen like this 20 years ago.

We need to keep an eye on this feature, developing out in the, Atlantic, its quite a nasty little feature AIf the track of this feature takes it through the English Channel, if the colder remains in place in the south to bring very large falls of snow. One to keep an eye on? FullSizeRender.MOV

That’s corrected south massively in just 24 hours expect that trend to continue. the current wave in southern counties has set up a boundary outflow in the tropopause and these features can draw low centres towards them impacting the incoming low’s trajectory

North downs certainly seem to be the sweet spot currently. What time is the next fax out @nick sussex?

I’d say it won’t get that far. Fax chart versus radar. The precip is heading due east. Very little north or south corrections. The fax takes the snow south today before another Perturbation brings more snow east later this evening. The best guide for later will be the next 0z fax issued later on today.

The current time fax chart shows a stationary gently waving front across southern England. The fax called a very similar position a Few day ago and I concur with @nick sussex that normally in the reliable fax charts perform best. the snow line is bringing large falls across southern England currently away from the immediate coast. the fax shows small occlusion waves coming into the SW now. Expect these to pep up the snow even more keeping the snow falling in similar locations all day.

A good 10cm around Forest Green. Quite a heavier fall than in December here

@nick sussex must be causing some real headaches interpreting where the 850’s gradient will fall along the south coast. It’s like all the Synoptics are changing all of the time. When is the next fax out ? 21:30 ?

The thing that gives me the best indication so far is. I’ve not seen one gritter and the sky is clear out with a full moon. and BA haven’t cancelled any flights yet … that’s normally the kiss of death down south

Well snow is falling already in Sw Ireland from the incoming Atlantic warm front. And it that’s possible there. A further shift south could well bring snow along the south coast.

Apparently a woman rang into the metoffice to say she’d heard a snowstorm is on the way…..

Is it just me or… does the Greeny high not seem to be in a rush to scarper off to the north west ?

So the very latest thinking from the met offixe correlates nicely with the T36 fax chart as w head into Wednesday night. the heaviest falls seem to match the track of the low over head with west and East Sussex, parts of Kent, Surrey and the Home Counties seeing a good covering of snow by dawn on Thursday. For some reason hampshire and further west is more of a complicated wintry mix. Maybe because of the less cold air mixing from the west as the low passes. It’s very fine detail here. Even 30 miles south would change these areas to snow. Then for Thursday night. The second low tracking into the borders brings in a much larger warm sector which needs to be monitored closely. Image shows sectors for ease of reference. To the north of the warm front into Scotland could see some very large snowfall totals but much milder air a little further south will see a thaw setting in. But for how long. As further cold air is back in the mix for the weekend and beyond.

Well what does the last frame show , the southern counties are all white

This matches the latest Met O updates warnings. And the northern extent matches the GFS precip. Are we edging towards firming up the snow distribution I wonder

I think the late shift probably has a or two whilst the pencils were out sketching the fax charts