DAVE_ALLEN

Not sure thats the end. The back edge is about half an hour from where you are but the low just west of Swanage may well fill in the gap its showing as rain at present but it will most likely change to sleet as it moves in land even snow away from the direct centre.

Outbreaks of graupel falling now in the Guilford area. 32F so even though its a dusting its settling. Hopefully if comes down for a few hours it will build up to a centimetre. Watch this graupel 1.mov

I just posted about this. it appears to be shearing ENE into Northern France,

Its beginning to look like the energy has sheared off from the front and its moving away east along the english channel towards the far north of france whilst the snow falling over Surrey, Sussex's and Hants is becoming weaker.. this seems very odd. FullSizeRender.mov

Hardly surprising as every single car drives at half speed or even a quarter of the speed. Which would be as though the entire county of Surrey had roadworks on every single major and minor road. Imagine what that would be like. Its effectively what happens.. Plus the ones who then try to speed, crash, making matters worse.. Its exactly the same in every single similarly densely populated city or town in the world where snow falls only occasionally close or just above freezing,.. Happens all over Europe.

Anyone noticed the back edge is really getting a move on. Its already cleared the channel islands and is coming across the channel. When do we think the front will slow its movement north ?

http://www.itsfine.org/weather/wx_webcam_newhaven.php Is that snow falling at NewHaven ?

I would imagine the met office will issue an amber warning for the M23 area inc Gatwick Airport soon..

Snow has made it almost all the way across the channel. First snow for the south east looks like falling over Seaford to Eastbourne and the surrounding south downs. Another blob of snow is developing down the M3 near Bordon. Apart from Devon, all the rain has now turned to sleet in the SW over higher ground and away from the Welsh coast wales looks amazing.

Looking at the precip radar at 4pm snow is falling in the channel already over water. And the sleet approaching IOW and Hants should turn to snow within an hour or less.

Still 38oF here but the dew point has plummeted to 16oF

Tell me can you see a second low forming half way between Penzance and Cork on 15:55 radar ? What would be the implications ?

Rather interestingly the high winds forecast to increase this afternoon appear not to have done so. A gentle breeze outside here for now.

I'm not sure I really understand what you are asking ? I don't think I know you

Its certainly advancing up the channel faster than it is over Somerset and Wiltshire. Could cause the channel precip to intensify at it comes ashore with a cold SE undercut. I would expect that new low forming off Devon to position itself close to the IOW by 7-8 pm

Looking at the latest radar, I think the low forming off the coast of South Devon is holding up the advance of the snow towards Exeter and Bristol way. The precip is advancing up the channel at a far greater rate off knots. It could be that the low pulls the precip off shore a little to come ashore again further along the Dorset coastline. This could well cause the front to pep up significantly as it comes inland this evening with a SE undercut. @kold weather could well see a lot of snow and with a potential second sweet spot on the in Mid Surrey across to the Surrey E Sussex border. These are developing things to watch in real time. I would expect the Met O Amber alerts to be issued later for somewhere from Mid Hants to E Sussex in a line. Suffolk and Kent may well do slightly better than they are expecting if what I think is happening now turns out to be correct. This could also explain why we are seeing snow on the beach in N Devon as winds begin to get pulled in from more of an ENE direction.

Good Afternoon. The upper level alto stratus is spilling in now with occasional convective clouds traveling NW ahead of the front. This is the beginning of an undercut of colder continental air. Temp 39oF Dewpoint 21oF @ 2pm