snowlessayr

Right on cue, met office updates the warning. Bit late

Not a great moment for the met office this, warning doesn't start till 6am and there is lying snow across a vast area of the west of the central belt with reports of 3 inches in places like greenock on the coast. From 9 or 10 it was clear the snow as going to arrive well before 6am. As expected rain in Ayr, however it instantly froze as it was raining at -4, only in Ayr Went out to investigate if it was slippery and fell instantly, tad on the slippy side

Giant fluffy flakes in ayr, miracles do happen

@icykev is talkin about the low to the southwest which has been discussed for the last 24 hours. No need for the condescending tone and calling people "dramatic". Especially when you have jumped to conclusions. Anyway back to the models, noticed a lot of people mentioning the lack of precipitation. In these setups small features pop at extremely late notice, guarantee there will more snow than models are currently showing. The shorter range models will come into range soon and they will be more likely to pick up on small features. Important to note how different this December is to the last 10 or so. At least we are all in with a shot this December

The difference with this current situation to the previous attempts that have went wrong is the Atlantic. Usually when things go wrong it's the Atlantic that is the issue or the block sinks and goes southeast into Europe. Whereas in this situation the Atlantic is currently dead, the vortex is weakening and looks to be heading for Siberia (where we want it). The excellent thing we continue to see is vastly different routes but most eventually get us to a situation where a decent cold spell is more probable. In simple terms usually when things are looking promising we have a 1 or 2 tickets in the raffle out of 10. In this situation we have 5 or 6 tickets to getting a significant cold spell. Not guaranteed by any means but light years away from recent Decembers.

Had a great display this evening from lots of storms around, here's a little clip of a capture from the coast of ayrshire. Hopefully lots more to come for the storm starved folk over the coming few days Shared album - FTRL_Switchback - Google Photos PHOTOS.APP.GOO.GL

Hands down the best few hours of lightning activity for the last few years here, storms over the coast and then storms popped up to the north east towards the Kilmarnock direction. Had no idea where to look at one point, loved every second of that

Shared album - FTRL_Switchback - Google Photos PHOTOS.APP.GOO.GL Little clip of the lightning off the coast of ayrshire

Currently watching a thunderstorm over the Ayrshire coast, fantastic light show

Well, my name lived up to expectations. Everything was sleet here, actually painful with the lack of snow I get. Nice seeing the pictures, hopefully I can join in soon, even if it is in 2025

These are they type of comments which annoys people in the northern half of the UK, the northern half of the UK is a pretty big area to generalise that we all do well. Some places in northwest England haven't had good snowfall in years. Same with certain parts of Scotland. Like me saying that the south of England always does well even in the most dire of summers, it is just false and misleading. Anyway back to the models, tentative signs of something more interesting mid-month onwards. Though not getting too optimistic as still recovering from the Christmas heartbreak if I am honest . Hopefully we can get a decent nationwide spell where we can all get some snow.

Well summer is definitely here, blue skys for the last few days and quite warm in the sun now. The sunsets have been beautiful recently, photos courtesy of a family member last night. Enjoy the weather

My understanding is that you need the warm waters as that is what forms these polar lows as it is the temperature gradient that fuels the low. the warmer they are the better is my understanding for polar lows. Unless I have it totally wrong which I may have.

Freezing rain in Ayr, strangest sound

according to the radar I should have had 2 hours of moderate to heavy snow when in fact I have barely seen a flake

unbelievable, no snow here again. How it manages to miss here I will never know

Me Like the latest ECM for Saturday. Hopefully the Ayrshire folk can get some snow. Got countless flurries ver the last 4 days but that was about it

BFTE in 2018 was a once in a lifetime event for most. extremely rare for the uppers and the time of year it occurred. it has only just begun though and plenty of time for things to develop. No point saying tame at the moment, was always forecasted to start properly for most tomorrow. Today was predominantly snow for folk further north

That didn't last long, already had a few flurries

if I can get any snow I will be pleased, looks more likely next weekend. ECM has some decent snow as a front struggles to get here. not expecting any showers here so I can hopefully get a nice suprise. Anyone wanna make a bold prediction that I will see snow?

The thing with snow depth charts s they often overplay snow depths in frontal situations but underplay convective massively. Therefore it may even it out in this situation. Even if it is out most places in southeast England will see a fair bit I think. Sadly unlikely I will, as my area doesn't do well in these setups. Enjoy everyone

I am not expecting anything from this easterly, so to not get my hopes up. If I get some then I will be super happy. Easterlies usually don't deliver for here. Looking forward to all the snow pics though, enjoy

what we have here at the moment is what I would constitute a sleety mess, doesn't know if I wants to snow fully or be rain. one minute it is snowing the next raining.

The ECM is the main run, the mean is the average basically of all 51 ensemble member runs. It basically gives an idea of the average overall pattern. check out the learning and research part on netweather. A lot of useful stuff on there

Snow needs to be much heavier to lay here, but at least it is snowing