snowlessayr

Absolutely fascinating model watching at present and synoptic charts that haven't been seen for quite a while. This is before what could happen with the stratosphere, massive thank you for the posters explaining what stratosphere charts are showing as it is a massive help at times. With the fascinating period ahead us it is a shame to see some very negative posts, don't understand the reasoning behind it if I am honest, most winters you would bite your hand off for what we have at the moment. The longer the colder spell goes on the less marginal some setups are as the ground gets colder and colder. Hopefully that will finally lay the uppers debate to rest for a while, not holding much hope mind Merry Christmas to you all and let's hope we all get some snow.

If you think a computer can never predict what is going to happen then you are clearly in the wrong place. You do realise that this is is model output discussion More on topic although the 06z wasn't as good as the 00z still some snow about. The ensembles are still a bit all over the shot which is understandable at this range, still 10x more exciting than last year

I don't really get all the gloom and doom and gloom in here from some this evening. No point getting hung up on 1 bad run. if we always did this then god forbid many on here are going to suffer some serious heart problems soon. I think that our current situation is still a pretty decent one, the polar vortex isn't exactly raging and we are not seen what we would consider raging zonality. Some posts on here are very misleading, particularly the one about uk not seeing any snow so far. Quite a fair few areas have including myself. The GEFS didn't look too shabby at all and the UKMO looked fairly good, still all to play for in regards to Christmas and for the foreseeable future. Thanks

As much as I would love a winter wonderland white Christmas, I would more than happily take a frosty seasonal Christmas. I think most of us would after this year, nice to have something to look forward to. Hopefully we have some afternoon upgrades, and some fabulous posters recently. Very helpful for people who like myself are still learning some of the ropes

Well in verification stats, the GFS is usually always below the ECM. Only in very rare instances does it have a period where it verifies better. The UKMO is nearly always the best over the previous 2. I think the main reason that the GFS gets a lot of flack is that it does have some more erratic tendencies shall we say. What I mean by that is that it tends to flip a lot more than the ECM and the UKMO. All models have there issues, they are never going to be perfect as the weather will do what it wants to at the end of the day. Just always have a huge caveat for single GFS runs or any single model run. Always better to look for trends rather than individual runs. Most in here Including myself can get too excited with 1 run, especially when looking for winter Narnia charts

The end of this run looks like putting us into the freezer, major caveat being it is the pub run and could easily be back on the alcohol again since the lockdown is over for you guys in England. very interesting NH pattern again though which is more important at this point as we all know the GFS can come up with some ridiculous solutions at times

I literally said keep an eye on the next few runs

Looks a tad marginal to me On a more serious note, although unlikely to verify we do continue to see heights rising up towards Scandi or Greenland at FI on the GFS. if your wanting deep cold it is pattern you continue to want to see, if there is one decent thing about the GFS is that it can spot trends so at least it is something to keep an eye on for the next few runs. I know some people tend to be pessimistic when models show cold but just remember how awful last winter was and enjoy the ride. Although I am fairly young, I have been reading this thread for many years and it is massively helped improve my understanding of model watching. I decided to start posting now, finally. Some extremely knowledgable posters on here, thank you for all your insights. I know this place gets very heated at times but I think for most of us watching the models hoping for some cold and snow is a massive escape from the world that we live in at the moment. Thanks

It is a bit odd, usually thundersnow usually happens with a proper BFTE or a long fetch NW polar maritime flow. Considering the large lack of snow from my 21years of life I have seen thundersnow at least 4 or 5 times from polar maritime NW. Think it may be the only benefit of being on the west coast in winter

I live on the west coast of Scotland, the most snowless place in Scotland hence the name. Not everywhere in Scotland always gets lying snow. In my 21 years of my life most I have had is 10cm. Lucky if I get more than a cm covering on an average year so it is very unusual here. Anyway back on topic, as much as we are not in a proper cold scenario we are seeing a much different pattern than typical at this time of year. Hopefully we will eventually source some colder upper air temperatures if a similar pattern maintains. I think we can all agree that this winter has already much more enjoyment than last winter. Let's hope we can all get some snow at some point

well after yesterdays snowfall hopefully this winter is much better for us this year. Can't be any worse than last year, barely saw a flake

you do not need -5 at 850hPa, here just off the west coast of Scotland we got couple of inches yesterday. I haven't had lying snow here since 2018, this was from -2 or -3 upper air temperatures. The vast majority of big snowfalls come from slider scenarios which most don't have -5 upper air temperatures, you just need the flow off the right wind direction. if we always need -5 at 850hPa, then we would get nowhere near as much snow as we receive during winter which granted usually isn't much anyway

Well that was an interesting journey, what is usually a 15 minute car ride to drop my mum off at Ayr hospital from annbank turned into well over an hour. Very heavy snow throughout and some lightning in the distance which was from Irvine, heard from friends that it sounded like an explosion cars getting stuck everywhere from annbank, very treacherous and multiple hairy moments. Winter has well and truly arrived in Ayrshire Photo was after 5 minutes of snow, at least 2 inches now

Scotland has turned into spain for the evening, as much as I would have loved a storm overhead. Nice to see it from a distance sometimes, with a clear sky above. Glad a lot of us got storms and hopefully not too much damage in Edinburgh as those looked intense and the way it kept reloading at the south meant it lasted for so long.

Just seen a meteor just above some massive lightning, one of the most amazing experiences

Constant flashing to east and stars above haha

if I am seeing so many flashes to the east and northeast many miles away then it must be intense

lightning seen from ayr to the north and north east, no showers very odd elevated storms

you are in for a treat, best lightning show in Scotland I have seen and the best thing is that it wasn't expected

this is crazy, fair to say very unexpected constant rumbling and lot of beautiful fork lightning. lovely

Some really stunning lightning, storms have developed from nothing an hour ago. Beginning to see some lightning from the south

Thunder from all directions here now

Just had an atomic bomb sounding positive strike

Stunning lightning display from ayr beach

it is 30 where I am in Scotland, and Scotland on average gets lot less lightning than England. check the met office lightning statistics