[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Snow needs to be much heavier to lay here, but at least it is snowing 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Snowing here now, been very sleety but turning more to snow

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Well morning everyone, still nothing in Ayr as yet. Girvan and Maybole saw a bit yesterday evening and this morning a shower headed straight for me disintegrated 10 miles off the coast and 5 minutes later a pretty decent shower developed north giving Troon and Barassie a few cm. Even snow on the beach at Troon and Barassie looking at the web cam.

Incredibly unlucky so far but lovely to see some other Ayrshire folk seeing some snow. Still seen more snow than usual here so far this winter and still a way to go yet this winter. 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Had a grant total of 0 showers so far, can"t believe when we have great parameters suitable for sea level snow and I haven"t yet managed a shower in a northwesterly flow. Prestwick managed a bit of snow this morning as well as Irvine but everything seems to evade me at the minute. Hopeful of something this evening 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

been having a look at the models for the next few days, the best bet for any coastal Ayrshire places or up towards @Mr Frost will be Saturday. met office has snow on the coast on Saturday, multiple models going for some decent shower risk in the west. May penetrate a bit further inland but looking promising for Saturday for some folk who missed out recently. Also GFS has picked up on a feature overnight from Saturday into Sunday with more of a band of snow, been on quite a few runs now. Dew points seem decent and 850S seem just about low enough. definitely one to keep an eye on as some of the shorter range models seem to be beefing up the shower risk a bit in the west on Saturday. 

Really enjoyed seeing the snow pics, a tad jealous I must say  definitely the most relaxed thread on this forum in here and nobody arguing about whether a 15 day snow chart will come off or that winter is over comments.

Thanks 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Ross B said:

Don't want to jinx it but some heavier bursts starting to form around Glasgow....

Shhh, don't scare it away. It can keep building up for a while

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Looking very interesting to say the least. Though it may be marginal the battleground type scenario will bring the snow level down to sea level I believe. They have been god awful recently but BBC also going for snow down to sea level. Where gets the most snow is completely up in the air at the moment. This type of stalling pivoting front is notoriously hard to predict hence the considerable uncertainty in the exact position.

Definitely looking like the biggest snowfall since the BFTE for most. Really hopeful we get a decent covering and hopefully more. Fingers crossed and there will be a lot of lampost watching for many this coming week

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Good afternoon, hope you all enjoy your snow. Not jealous whatsoever, need to get somewhere to experience 20cm of snow. Amazing when you think I haven't in what is coming up to my 21st. 

Definitely looks to be marginal for some, but if you are lucky to be in the right spot then you may end up with a fair dumping. 

Enjoy guys 

[Model output discussion - another cold spell on the horizon?]

Highly unlikely to come off exactly as the 0z GFS run has just done. 

By my word if it did, very severe cold and setting up a northerly reload now as well. Uppers comparable with BFTE 2018 but instead of late Feb into march it is slap bang in the middle of winter. 

I don't usually comment on individual runs but my god I need a lie down

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

11 minutes ago, DCee said:

It's like amateur dramatics society over on the model forum.

But then they are amateurs and only looking for one outcome so have to forgive them. Some informative posts in amongst the noise though. 

I noticed alot of negativity about the BBC temps recently but they correlated well in my area, inc the weather from days out.

I would take the bbc weather over any forecast from the model thread any day.

BBC literally use raw ECM data. If you watch the forecast it is the exact same as the latest ECM. Their stick is deserved imo, their forecast have been pretty awful at times since they switch from the met office.

Their are a fair few in the MOD that have either a degree in meteorology or in a few cases an ex forecaster so to call them all amateurs is very naive and quite disrespectful

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Max here of 1 today, already heading back down. Snow not going anywhere yet. Rare enough for here to get snow, let alone it staying. lovely pictures everyone

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Better change your username as you are not snowless anymore

not used to all this white stuff , proper powder snow as well. I have had enough snow over the last month that I will properly have to wait another 5 years now haha.

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Just shows how unpredictable snow forecasting can be, still snowing here. would love to be under that big blob, looks very nice

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

all white, met office remove the warning and we get snow. now I know what we require for snow 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

it is snowinggggggg, -4 and snowing doesn't happen often 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

well after this mornings rain, at 4pm it was already frozen over. Now got some freezing fog developing, pretty rare we get fog here as we are low lying. One of the reasons Prestwick airport is usually used for emergencies. going to be another cold one tonight 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

Now puddles outside, expected it tbh. Very rare we get snow here on the west coast from a front coming in from the northwest, particularly with how marginal it was. Glad areas more inland saw a bit of snow

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

no snow here, but freezing rain. Roads are a tad slippy to say the least 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

according to the radar I should have had an hour of precipitation, not had a drop or flake. confused 

edit - sleet just started 

 

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

12 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

I suspect he doesn't forget that, since he acknowledges explicitly that it is SOME members who have been enjoying great conditions. Probably also expects people on here to behave like adults and to be capable of accepting others having a good time without becoming upset because they haven't had the right weather themselves...

Aaanyway, a little disheartened by today's modelling of the next few days in the SE - not the upgrades I was hoping for, and some warmer 850s threatened than shown yesterday.

On the brighter side, we had ice-y, hail-y pellets today among what I expected to be uniformly rain.

I cannot agree with this more, the constant moaning just puts a damper in here recently. 

The vast majority of cold spells I don't end up with a thing but no point moaning, we are adults at the end of the day and love when people get snow.

This place has become borderline intolerable for me recently.

Some need to take a step back right now, the constant sniping and comments that wouldn't be out of place in a school playground. 

Can't we just all get along, we can't do anything about the weather so just enjoy the ride. Things still look pretty darn good in the next month for some cold. We may see a slightly less cool period coming up but from multiple senior forecasters and background factors most can't see it lasting. 

I love this forum and so many others do but for god sake can we not all get along, surely that isn't too much too ask. For a lot of people this site is an escape from the real world so come on let's just enjoy it 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards]

37 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

There is just no patience in the MT, I made a comment earlier that in February 2018 there were lots of changes by the models in the run up to the BFTE,,also  zonal days in the first couple of weeks of the month. I said to have a look at the charts for Feb 2018 as it was a interesting evolution into the BFTE also quite a quick turnaround into bitter cold east winds    

It is extremely frustrating to look at, it is bipolar in that thread. It doesn't matter how many times we have a SSW people still expect models to be absolute nailed on when in fact that is very rarely ever the case and even less so in a SSW.

It is just full of I told you so, and mild zonal always wins comments. Well of course it will eventually as it is our default pattern, people become very argumentive over something which at the end of the day we have no control over it is baffling. 

It could be -10 outside and snow galore and we would still have folk complaining that it isn't lasting months. 

Sometimes you would think we live in Svalbard and not the UK with the type of comments in that thread. It is very rare to get seriously low uppers in the UK so if they always expect that then they are nearly always going to be disappointed

With the look of the models a slight warm up of some degree looks likely, but with the troposphere and strat situation it will probably be short lived. We know how volatile models can be in this situation so expect a lot of changes in the near future.

Definitely going to try and ignore the model thread for a while, not good for my health looking at the comments sometimes

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

little bit late but happy new year to everyone.

looking like a very cold night here, already down to -3.

very interesting model watching and looking likely that we will see some snow soon

 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

3 minutes ago, sukayuonsensnow said:

Looking at the overall models, I would be surprised at this point if most of southern UK has a notable snowfall (7cm accumulation or more) in the next couple weeks. There's still potential but this cold spell is more for northern England, Central and Northern Wales and Scotland.

There's still matters to be determined with how cold the air is over the UK next week, and that will determine what falls out of the sky for many.

Far far too early to say that. Features pop up at very short notice and can give a good dumping, battleground and sliders can give a hell of a lot. Obviously southern England struggles more than other areas but definitely chances that will come down the line 

[Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year]

Are people genuinely calling off this cold spell on the back of a couple of dodgy ensemble sets. we have a PV that is non existent on our side of the northern hemisphere. multiple areas already with snow without any decent uppers. A SSW which is just about to start. I mean come on guys,  I think some people need to take a serious step back here, this is all the hallmarks of a decent cold spell and a few are already writing it off. 

How many years have we waited for a situation like this, that fact we have some of the best posters on here calling for what could be a memorable spell. the met office long ranger looking pretty darn good as well. come on guys seriously 

 

[Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Autumn 2020 onwards]

Not often I get a covering of snow, let alone twice in as many weeks. The precipitation just made it here started dissipating just as it approached but still got a covering here. 

Very surprised it made it this far but certainly not complaining