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snowlessayr

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    Scotland Weather discussion

    in Scottish Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Not a great moment for the met office this, warning doesn't start till 6am and there is lying snow across a vast area of the west of the central belt with reports of 3 inches in places like greenock on the coast. From 9 or 10 it was clear the snow as going to arrive well before 6am. 

    As expected rain in Ayr, however it instantly froze as it was raining at -4, only in Ayr 🤣 Went out to investigate if it was slippery and fell instantly, tad on the slippy side🤣

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    Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Seriously if what slides?...that LP (near the north of the UK) has been modelled to stay in that position for the last couple of days and has never been forecast to slide if that's what you're referring to, a bit dramatic.

    @icykev is talkin about the low to the southwest which has been discussed for the last 24 hours. No need for the condescending tone and calling people "dramatic". Especially when you have jumped to conclusions.

    Anyway back to the models, noticed a lot of people mentioning the lack of precipitation. In these setups small features pop at extremely late notice, guarantee there will more snow than models are currently showing. The shorter range models will come into range soon and they will be more likely to pick up on small features. Important to note how different this December is to the last 10 or so. At least we are all in with a shot this December 

     

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    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlessayr

    The difference with this current situation to the previous attempts that have went wrong is the Atlantic. Usually when things go wrong it's the Atlantic that is the issue or the block sinks and goes southeast into Europe. Whereas in this situation the Atlantic is currently dead, the vortex is weakening and looks to be heading for Siberia (where we want it). The excellent thing we continue to see is vastly different routes but most eventually get us to a situation where a decent cold spell is more probable. 

    In simple terms usually when things are looking promising we have a 1 or 2 tickets in the raffle out of 10. In this situation we have 5 or 6 tickets to getting a significant cold spell. Not guaranteed by any means but light years away from recent Decembers. 

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    Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, syed2878 said:

      Nothing unusual about that this is just average UK winter no big deal that it looks wintry up north even in the most dire winters north half of the country always does well

    These are they type of comments which annoys people in the northern half of the UK, the northern half of the UK is a pretty big area to generalise that we all do well. Some places in northwest England haven't had good snowfall in years. Same with certain parts of Scotland. Like me saying that the south of England always does well even in the most dire of summers, it is just false and misleading. 

    Anyway back to the models, tentative signs of something more interesting mid-month onwards. Though not getting too optimistic as still recovering from the Christmas heartbreak if I am honest . Hopefully we can get a decent nationwide spell where we can all get some snow. 

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    Model output discussion 10/02/21

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Well they would be in the depths of winter, but I’m not sure in April - doesn’t SSTs play a role in these phenomena?  

    It looks like SSTs are generally above average to the north anyway, so I don’t see polar lows.

    4BF2A186-F652-4187-AD6F-A2A282F22F71.thumb.png.bf77ba23ce474886f261ae00924be26d.png

    My understanding is that you need the warm waters as that is what forms these polar lows as it is the temperature gradient that fuels the low. the warmer they are the better is my understanding for polar lows. Unless I have it totally wrong which I may have. 

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    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, jellybaby1969 said:

    Places like Greenock and Dumbarton in the west  were pasted in BFTE 2018... This is a much tamer affair

    BFTE in 2018 was a once in a lifetime event for most. extremely rare for the uppers and the time of year it occurred. it has only just begun though and plenty of time for things to develop. No point saying tame at the moment, was always forecasted to start properly for most tomorrow. Today was predominantly snow for folk further north 

    • Like 6

    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    18 hours ago, LomondSnowstorm said:

    I reckon you'll see, at least a few flakes

    Seriously though I do think the models might be underestimating the westward extent of the showers. Take the current radar for example - the UKV initialised 6 hours ago has this:

    image.thumb.png.2451024b10b283337ae8659fa3ea9756.pngimage.thumb.png.e9387c0614fc1d6dace7d4343bece765.png

    And yet the radar shows:

    image.thumb.png.5ed1d8a594c039012d16a2fad2198cb8.png

    a) much more extensive precipitation up the east coast than modelled and b) there's a moderate shower already past the M74.

    Once you factor in the low dewpoints and I don't think you can really rule out a covering anywhere over the next 4 days. Not promising anything, but if you can get a shower through on this flow:

    image.thumb.png.0b194af59bd5a2126b570d76ca33543a.png

    I wouldn't rule anything out

    That didn't last long, already had a few flurries

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by snowlessayr

    4 minutes ago, eddie1 said:

    Apologies if this is wrong place to ask but as a newbie can someone explain to me what the ecm mean., means please? How is it different from the ecm?, thanks 

    The ECM is the main run, the mean is the average basically of all 51 ensemble member runs. It basically gives an idea of the average overall pattern. check out the learning and research part on netweather. A lot of useful stuff on there 

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