Thunder and Lightning
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Posts posted by Thunder and Lightning
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3 minutes ago, Sprites said:
I'd say that is the Supercell storm that produced the tornado in Bucks.
Oh, I didn't realise there was a tornado in Bucks? Do you happen to have any damage reports etc.
Also, I am currently 50/50 whether it was a supercell. Some of the footage of it round Heathrow area showed some slight rotation. When I was there the storm certainly had some supercellular appearance characteristics but I didn't manage to get enough of a stable shot to note any proper rotation. In the middle of the storm certainly felt very intense, but as I was there I probably have a slight bias for it be the more extreme thing and for me to want it to be my first supercell, so I dont want to rush in calling it one if it is not really. But that being said, would not be surprised if it was found to be a weak supercell. If anyone has any thoughts, footage, anything interesting at all about this I would love to hear!
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Here is my footage from the event... was quite intense must admit one of the strongest storms I've ever experienced in my life!
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2 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:
Very odd question but what are the chances in Paris later would you say because I want a photo of lightning in front of some Disney ride lol?
Also if you can, can you recommend me some high level thunderstorm reading (online document would be helpful as I don't have much money), I find pHD thesis' easier to understand than the supposedly easier stuff for some reason.
Just a moment...
RMETS.ONLINELIBRARY.WILEY.COMThis isn't quite thunderstorms but in similar realms. I read it last year and it was good!
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53 minutes ago, Paul said:
An example of the convective cloud heights here - it's an early version which needs some finessing, but we should have a beta version up and running on the viewer tomorrow.
Oooh this looks nice.
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On 18/05/2022 at 13:23, Paul said:
A small update to the UKV this pm - we've added MU and ML CAPE charts to the extra viewer. They're live from the 9z this morning, but please note there was a labelling issue on that run, so the ML CAPE chart is showing MU CAPE and vice versa. This'll be fixed from the 12z this afternoon.
https://www.netweather.tv/secure/cgi-bin/premium.pl?action=ukv;sess=
I really like the sound of this new addition, even though I haven't currently got a NetWx Extra subscription.
Any sort of timeframe for any big updates, like adding new models? The charts, layout, and colour scheme of NetWeather is probably my favourite of all data providers and I would love to renew, especially if there will be more models in the NetWX style. -
Lightning potential looks very good with those active storms west of the IOW. I am a bit more concerned about the ones in Kent right now... worried it might be more East of London at least in this current round. Fingers crossed for further development through the evening as plume continues but a bit concerned majority of MLCAPE may be depleted. Good luck all.
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Well Storm Eunice was definitely quite a noteworthy event here. Here is all my footage from the event, if anyone is interested.
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Just now, Met4Cast said:
The pressure that wind exerts is exponential, this is something that probably not many people are aware of. 80mph exerts about twice as much force as 60 mph for example.
Image via: James Peacock
Can you imagine if we get those 90-100+mph gusts from a sting jet
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1 minute ago, Yarmy said:
What's the corridor for a sting jet: 30 to 40 miles? I suspect (or hope, really) it will be slightly to my south. Got friends coming down tomorrow from up north. I've told them to get here before lunch if they are coming.
Obviously don't want you to get hit by a sting jet, but I would imagine if one were to occur further south, it would be pretty bad - 90-100mph gusts in London? Yikes. Let's hope we don't get a sting jet.
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5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
The comments re: "This wont be as bad as 1987" are somewhat unfounded and are underplaying what could potentially be a very disruptive & dangerous storm.
The damage caused in 1987 was the result of a sting jet, that storm is the reason we know sting jets exist, the phenomena was largely discovered as a result of that storm. It's made more famous by the fact it was largely un-forecasted.
Storm Eunice could bring widespread inland gusts of 70-80mph. 1987 didn't even do that, the strongest gusts were reserved for coastal regions/within the sting jet. Some of the modelling for tomorrow is concerning, for context, the Burns Day storm in 1990 brought the strongest recorded winds on record to the London area of 87mph, some of the more extreme modelling for tomorrow challenge that record.
I don't necessarily agree with comparing tomorrow with 87 or Burns Day, however I do think some are underplaying this quite a bit.
Yes. Especially the fact that this region has not seen 70-80mph gusts for many, many years. It has potential to be a very high impact event, at the daytime, during the week, populated areas. Even if significant downgrades did occur it would still be disruptive. ...And with the potential for a sting jet, the ceiling is very high for potentially very severe winds.
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24 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm .
I feel like this has *potential* to not age very well
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Just now, alexisj9 said:
That's when the instrument broke, could have been, and probably was more.
Was that at the top of the BT tower if I recall correctly?
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Yikes. While ICON often overdoes windspeeds, this shows there is still scope for upgrades. Things could get pretty bad.
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Yep, 18z ICON now coming into line with most other models. 70-85mph widely
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3 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
The newest Icon-EU charts have potentially 119MPH wind gusts near Minehead. Would anyone be able to let me know how accurate Icon-EU is?
In my experience often over-estimates wind on topography such as mountains and valleys etc quite significantly. It is on a quite different track to other models anyway. Will *probably* shift north for 18z anyways.
1 minute ago, Loulucas said:Agreed. Here in wilts the conservatory is a creaking and a leaking already. Wheelie bins blown over too.
Yes agreed here as well in NW London. Big rumbling gusts, can feel it in the windows occasionally. Exciting!
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Met Office app going for 64mph for me - new record
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1 minute ago, Nick F said:
Ouch... hopefully most are hoping for a downgrade of wind gusts!
Yes, usually i'm one always hoping for an update and more extreme weather, but I must admit 80mph sounds pretty scary!
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Wowzers. GFS 18z brings the low more intense and a tad further north than 12z. 90mph through Bristol Channel. 85mph Midlands. 80mph in London? Would be pretty bad.
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2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
I agree with @Mike Poole - a model for the bin! I know it could still occur like that, but it is an outlier, such a scenario. A scenario which is only supported by a few low-res GFS members.
Same with mogreps - that solutions is in the relative minority of the ensemble output.
Also growing confidence of 70-80mph through central England suggested by MOGREPS again
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2 minutes ago, Porto said:
Meteociel shows 10 metre winds, so theyre going to be stronger than surface level shown on meteologix
Thanks - make sense
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GEM... again suggesting what looks to me like 90-100mph gusts. Can't be right. I used meteologix.com earlier today and it was more like 70-80mph for the morning run which was similar. Maybe something wrong with meteociel but im not sure if that makes sense/could be possible or not. -
6 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:
And thats why it's just a yellow warning at present, POTENTIAL high impacts but currently MODERATE probability. As soon as the probability is firmed up then warnings will be updated as necessary. The met office have played it as they should, alerted folk to the potential and advised people to stay tuned to forecasts. If they feel the need to upgrade warnings they will. The last thing they will want is to go overboard now on something that may not happen and consequently undermine trust in the warning system.
Probably are waiting to see if storm continues to trend south or see if signal grows or disappears etc, and then if trends are maintained, will probably issue a smaller amber tomorrow and then maybe extending it by Thursday. Just speculation though.
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06z GFS suggesting slightly increased confidence now.
Like others have said we should wait for 12z to see if trend continues-
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Sorry I realised I didn't answer all of your message. A week late, I know, sorry!
But sure you can share and link the video if you want!!