Bradley in Kent

I'll try not to sound overly negative: It seems winters in the UK are becoming the 'worst' season for those who like proper seasonal weather. I've come to the conclusion that in a warming world it's better to look out for heat in the summer as this is getting better and more reliable. (Okay that is coming from someone in SE England!) The best summers will be bettered, but the best winters will never be bettered. Cold (even dry or cool) is something which, yes we WILL see again, is ultimately on it's way out long term. Personally I can't see this winter delivering, if anything it'll be a day of wet snow end of Jan. Make sure you're wellbeing isn't too connected to the weather during winter! Some of the happiest spells of my life have actually occured during wet and mild winters!

Mmm I hope that PV animation doesn't come entirely true. At the end of the run it looks like the vortex is migrating to Eastern Canada, and we all know what happens after that! Must say I do like seeing models animated! Really helps illustrate the ebs and flows of our weather.

I thought that too. Perhaps it's the fact that Greenland is a more stable area and generally isn't on the receiving end of the Atlantic Jet - probably easier for models to grasp since there are less variables / influencers. I remember in January 2016 after that record breaking December models predicting a Scandi high with some what would have been welcome cold weather. Then at the last moment a hurricane decided to make an appearance and ousted the high right into Russia. And that was it for the rest of that winter

Good afternoon all on this very autumnal Sunday! Some really useful and informative posts on here; can't really add anything more technical to be honest! I'm rather hoping the Atlantic will get bored of throwing low pressures and Westerlies towards the start of winter. You can play now but your bedtime in end of November! The reason why last year was a frustrating winter was that the Atlantic was dominant in November but didn't really let up until March. I can deal with wet and mild spells so long as they are only 'spells' and not an entire season...

Been lucky enough to go to Lapland in January and locals said to me that 40 years ago snow was thinner but lasted a lot longer. Nowadays apparently the snow arrives with a bang and goes out with a bang. Also, they said the snow is much wetter now from picking up more moisture from a warmer ocean. I like reading data but there's nothing like locals backing it up!

I think it really comes down to personal circumstance and schedule hence emphasis on the word 'I' here... If we stayed BST year round, I wouldn't be too happy as in winter I wouldn't see any light at all in the morning and still not see any going home; at least now I see the sunrise on the way to work in December. Equally however I wouldn't be too happy if we stayed GMT year round as in summer our evenings wouldn't be as long and birds will start singing at 2:30 in the morning (plus at 3:30 sunrise is a massive waste of daylight) Basically, I don't want it to change! Yes we have to mess about with clocks and 'clock-lag' twice a year but I feel DST really does help us make the most of daylight.

Good afternoon, Yes absolutely of course not helped by some very gloomy weather! I feel that the sudden change is probably due to the fact that although the sun is up less than 12 hours after 23rd September, it's not really until a month later where actual night is longer than 12 hours once you take dawn and dusk into account. For me summer is truly over when night starts eating into your day both start and end. I'm really am hoping for some bright weather in November onwards as crisp weather always make the short days much more palatable.

That's all we (okay I...) want; high pressure somewhere to the North of the UK. Northwest or Northeast preferably both. What we don't want are cold plunges in Eastern Canada as this seems to rev the Atlantic up into positive oscillation and then gets stuck into delivering the UK Westerly after Westerly for weeks on end. High pressure should in theory stop the Atlantic from getting too lively and stop those storm inducing cold plunges in the West Atlantic as that area would see more Southerlies.

Haha believe it or not the Earth is closest to the Sun in January and farthest away in July due to our irregular orbit. This cycle reverses roughly every 20,000 years which is why we have ice ages although I think humans have already prevented the one we should be going into now! Unfortunately the most you can do during the Northern hemisphere winter is either migrate to better climes or live on a sheltered South facing hillside in a greenhouse!

And the days begin to draw out end of February going into March. 10C, still, sunny with sunset at 6.30pm? Yes please. 10C, windy, raining with sunset at 3.45pm? No thank you...

Agreed, I'd say late September / early October has the narrowest percentile range in temperatures on average with daily highs rarely going above 18 or below 12. A similar analogy is when you warm up a pan of iced water, with the hob being the sun and water being the Northern hemisphere. As you heat it up in Spring, some parts get hot but not all as you stir the water, explaining the swings we tend to get in April and May. After the solstice you begin to turn the heat down but the water continues to heat a bit more peaking in late July, by now all the cold patches are gone. At the Autumn equinox you're really turning the gas down, and this pot of water is cooling very uniformly helped by the stirring. Things cool much more evenly in comparison to being heated up but also more quickly as the heat source is way below sustaining the residual heat. This way this time of year sees less variation. In November you start adding the ice again, with cold patches now swirling amongst the tepid water. By now the gas is very low but the rate of cooling slows. After the winter solstice you edge up the gas again but the cooling will only stop and reverse in February, by which point you're turning the gas up higher and higher. I realise that was a long exploration, but I trust it makes sense!

And there's that question on whether being cold actually gives you a cold and whether heating (not turned on yet) also gives you a cold. A quick internet search gives no useful answers and anything I've heard has only been anecdotal. Of course these topics have always floated about, but I think this year we'll be taking much more notice!

It will be interesting (for want of a better word) to see if a change of seasons does have any affect spread of Covid19. I must admit I've never known how or if winter weather affects virus spread; you'd think cold weather kills germs off but we spend a lot of time indoors anyway during autumn and winter, mild or cold.

Thank you for posting these, it's good to see them together rather than on separate pages. This rather confirms the scenarios this summer where relatives / colleagues / Netweather users were saying how drab the weather is their way and me thinking 'it's not THAT bad...'. Kent clearly got away with it mostly when the weather came in from the North and West still managing a few 25Cs between the June hot snap and August heatwave. Anyway, another summer come and gone, Iooking forward to seeing what autumn and winter bring!

I think this summer is a sign of what's to come in future years: all or nothing summers. The UK is becoming a more obvious battleground between a more energised Atlantic and high intensity heat on mainland Europe. Reports show that the UK is warming differently depending on where you are: the SE is seeing hotter 'hot days' in summer but 'cool days' remain, where the NW is seeing warmer 'cold days' in winter but isn't seeing much summer warming. Not the best place if you want proper seasonal variation although the daylight hours probably make up for some of that. That pattern seems to continue, with the SE seeing some very hot days whilst the rest of the UK has breezy and showery weather. Summer 2018 was an exception which I feel is a better summer: less intense heat but everyone enjoys it for longer with high pressure right over the UK. At the end of the day we'll just have to live with what we're dished up with!

Not too close, of course!

Hello and good afternoon, Currently 32C here in North Kent with a slight breeze. The dew point is dropping meaning some further heating to come. I'm predicting with continued sun a high of 35C here with 36C - 37C at Heathrow / West London around 16:00 - 17:00. Tonight looking like a warm one in SE England with dew points predicted to rise again perhaps giving insulating cloud. Stay cool!

Yes temperature are definitely several degrees down compared with 7 days ago; the temperature dropped lower than forecasted in the early hours this morning. However last week the wind picked up and cloud arrived around 15:30 onwards putting the brakes on any further rise despite being quick out the blocks in the morning. Today is off to a slower start but the lighter winds and all day sun should still result in a very hot one with a more sustained climb peaking later in the afternoon in comparison. It will be interesting to see how much of an impact having a cooler night beforehand has! Stay cool everyone!