Bradley in Kent

Good morning all, It does seem like the low pressures of last Monday and yesterday have kicked the wider pattern away from HP to the NW allowing a more Westerly flow now. I'm not complaining to be honest, we could do with some rain here and if we continue to erode the North Atlantic HP, we can start to build it to the South.

As for this summer I'm going for a cool to average summer. Here in Kent we've had a good run overall since 2013 (apart from 2015) but I feel this year will buck the trend. May: wet and cool with one plume (like 2012) June: wet and cool again (like 2012) July: dry and average temps (like 2010) August: slightly wetter than average and cool but with warm spell at end (like 2017) September: dry and slightly cool (like 2015) Going for a short feeling summer. Loads of trees aren't in leaf yet but in 4 months time they'll be on the turn again!

You're not imagining it, average temps drop much more quickly than they rise. This is due to the latency between solar input and northern hemisphere temperatures. In October for example the sun is the same as in February meaning warmth is just residual and cannot be sustained. The same happens in a day as the temperature rises steadily, peaks late afternoon then drops quickly around sunset. Gonna be honest I wouldn't want a slow Autumn. The idea of days slowly getting colder is like slowly getting into cold water. Get it over and done with and jump in!

Personally I'm satisfied with the weather in the past 14 months apart from December and January which were cold and wet. When looking at the Met Office actual maps it never ceases to amaze me the regional variations. The February cold spell was decent for Kent but a complete bust for a colleague in East Sussex. Same goes for heat where Kent was the only area which had a 'better than average' summer last year. It really depends what town you live in half the time!

Fingers crossed! I'd rather have the S / SE winds in actual summer. I'll remain hopeful that the lack of them now means they'll be more frequent then!

Who knows we might even have the coldest first half for a good number of years. For me as a 20-something this is definitely the coldest run of months I've experienced. 2010 came close but April was warm. To think this was 'normal' years ago! I don't mind though, and let's face it when the sun is out it doesn't matter what the temperature is!

Good morning all, I'm going to put a positive spin on the recent and forecasted cool conditions. I've never personally recalled trees being this late to leaf, which means when meeting outside, there has been less shade. The pub gardens near me would normally by now be shaded by deciduous trees, but whenever I've been there we've all been basked in dappled warm sunlight. As we know, being in the sun is most important in cold spring spells! I'm personally not bothered when the leaves bud to be honest, as long as they do eventually of course!

I know what you mean, but when you get a deluge, most of the water runs away never having the chance to soak through saturated ground. That's what makes wet winters even worse, knowing that most of the rain is being wasted anyway! Also, we are densely populated so when the rain stops we quickly use it up!

Being 26 years old this is easily the coldest April I've experienced so far. And as each day passes the chance for the CET to increase gets smaller and smaller. I do remember snow on the 6th April 2008 and maybe some cold weather April 2006? I also recall April 2001 'not being warm' but my memory is a tad sketchy for then! Like a few on here I looked at other years with cold April's to see if there's any patterns for the Summer. Result? Can't call it! Fingers crossed for 1989 as it looks good on paper (obviously I was -5 years old then!)

It really illustrates the importance of where that high pressure is. April 2020 was just as dry with lots of high pressure around and look how different that was! I'll give it another several years before confidently saying Spring is becoming a 'dry season' as 2012 for example wasn't that long ago.

Morning all, I don't often post on this thread but thought I'd add my thoughts: Assuming most here don't want continued cold, I'd say it's all eyes on the low beginning of next week. Firstly it'll stop a big build in the Atlantic. Then it'll encourage the high pressure behind it to topple. Once you have toppling high pressures with lows sent towards iceland, we can expect more seasonal and warmer weather!

Blimey two months ago we were commenting (even complaining) how muddy it was! A combo of low rainfall, dry air, strong sun and breezy conditions has put an end to that and if it continues for much longer we'll have the opposite problem. Looking at the models I'd say we're in for another dry April.

Hello all, So it's that time of year where people start to wonder what the summer will bring, will it be the 'BBQ Summer' the tabloids promise every year, or will it be that cool and dreary summer people lament for months after! I've always found the discussion around Spring weather and it's relationship with Summer an interesting one. No matter what you say there will be years which back up a theory and ones which don't. For example, after the years 2007, 2008 and 2011 in particular, I used to think 'warm Spring weather = poor Summer'. However since then the likes of 2014, 2017 and 2018 have blown that theory out of the water so I no longer know what to think! Given the cause and effect nature of our planet though, I do think there is one. And I'd love to hear what fellow weather enthusiasts think about this topic. Is it impossible for warm weather producing synoptics to stay for more than a few weeks? Or does Northern Hemisphere snow and ice cover have some sort of bearing? All in all, we deserve at least an 'average' Summer!

Definitely more of a problem once plants and crops commit themselves to flowering. The cold spells aren't the issue as such, but the proceeding warmth which causes early flowering is. Temperature variations are a part of spring and growers do factor in that some years won't be as good as others. I know wineries for example can churn up the earth next to the vines to stimulate root growth which encourages new buds after a freeze. If the following summer is good then some crops can and do catch up again in time for the harvest. Like anything it's okay if this happens occasionally, but if you get it year on year it will then be a big issue.

I think our sense of what April should be has been massively warped in the last few years starting in 2007. Out of all the months April has seen the biggest step change in temperatures where it used to be normal to see cold weather. Also April 1968 was cold. Not that it actually means anything, just that we've had a few hot days in March followed by a cold April!

Evening all, It was very strange being in the garden with warm sun and snow falling at the same time! Goes to show how cold uppers and very low dew points really help snowflake survive, in fact the dew point went all the way down to -14c, and my lips are showing it! I'm also in the camp of preferring a cooler than average spring then a warm summer. Spring does have a much wider standard deviation compared to Autumn which in my eyes is a boring time of year, especially late September early October. As others have mentioned, it really comes down to sun this time of year!

I'll stick with my 20th April from a similar setup, a fleeting taste of European warmth for a couple of days. This is however a much taller order and I won't be surprised if we don't get 25c until the summer! Also sticking with my cool summer prediction

Good morning all, It seems there's a lot more cloud around today which may keep a lid on temperatures but will still be a pleasant enough day I used to think warm springs are a bad sign for summer due to how synoptic patterns might evolve (can the weather keep it up etc.) after 2007, 2011 and 2012 then the reverse in 2013. However since then we've had some very prolonged decent weather both in spring and the following summer; 2014, 2017, 2018 and for here in Kent last year too. To sum up: When looking for patterns there will always be occasions which back up one's theory, but equally, there will be also be occasions which go against it!

20.4c officially today in London; also the exact day I predicted this! Not the most interesting of achieved predictions I know but I couldn't resist! It seems us weather enthusiasts might have a nack for predicting dates. Hope you're enjoying the step up to freedom today in the sun

Unlike in winter I'm pleased the upcoming cold spell is evaporating. We might even have our warm spell extended to Thursday but some major disagreements even just 3 days out. Go on winter off you go!

I feel you're frustration I too was looking at the models and thought 'imagine this in January'. However if it makes you feel any better, this is perfectly normal for spring. March, April and May have always seen the most Easterly to Northerly winds. I'm not an expert so can't exactly explain why, but a combo of lower sea temperatures and stronger sun input encourages high pressure to build to the North and West. Also, spare a thought for other islands or west coasts around the world who have even longer seasonal lags. Places like Oregon coast see their coldest weather in April and May meaning a long downward trend from October to April!

For me I like cold producing synoptics from late October to mid-March and warm producing the other times. I'm happy to admit in the past week I've flipped to wanting southerlies! That's to say when looking at models my idea of a good run changes, but expectations remain the same.

I reckon we'll see 20c this month on the 29th (I'll guess a prolonged high pressure toppling away into Continental Europe). I'll guess 25c on 20th April but no 30c until 31st July. I'm going for a cool summer with an absolute max 31c on 1st August. This year has 2012 vibes all over it!

Good evening all, as others have mentioned a real spring like feel to things both currently and in the forecasts. I've attached the latest GFS ensembles for London and can't believe how close they're all are! FI? What FI?! Funny how just before or during cold spells the wheels can come off just like that, but during a mild spell you can basically bank it at 10 days. Looks like the mild is 'locked in and nailed', but at least it won't be super wet! Obviously several weeks of cold potential to go, but let's face it any cold would only be a 48hr Northerly, which in March or April isn't that exciting....

Afternoon all, Well as with others here I’d also like to give my review of this February 2021 cold spell, just for fun! I’ll give an MO style description and my rating below using weighted parameters. It is worth bearing in mind I’m 26 years old so grew up during a very poor run of winters meaning my standards are quite low! (but 2010 has risen those somewhat) Description of the cold spell: I’m definitely in a minority here being very satisfied with the cold spell, in fact, I’d say it was better than BFTE 2018! (on par with February 2012). Living in Maidstone in north Kent, we here have hugely benefited from NE’ly streamers and proximity to dry continental air. This spell, which lasted 8 days, got off to a slow start with a disappointing outcome from the low pressure system over the Low Countries; the transition to snow took longer than forecast where it took its’ time in settling on Sunday. This did however mean by Monday morning, conditions for sledging were excellent once snow settled on tarmac with ice underneath dry snow. (the kids were very happy!) Snow fell non stop over Monday and Tuesday as the front decayed but was very light. Snow cover remained due to no sun and temps below freezing. Wednesday was slightly underwhelming by day where the wind died down, temps rose above freezing for a few hours and the sun damaged snow cover. Snow showers did not replenish this during the afternoon. By nightfall however, surprise streamers set up over the Thames Estuary where Maidstone received around 6 cm in less than an hour after some very heavy snow. Thursday morning was the peak of the spell, with 12cm of lying snow, biting wind and sunny intervals. Thursday, Friday and Saturday followed a similar pattern with a strong SE breeze, sunny intervals and temps below freezing. The coldest part of the spell was Friday morning with temps just below -6c. Snow cover remained intact and only melted partially on South facing roofs. Icicles also formed in places. By Saturday evening change was in the air as the winds swung to a more Southerly direction and humidity rose along with cloud cover and temperatures. Sunday morning started off below freezing but the temperature crept up during the day where by evening snow cover was diminishing quickly. Today as I type this, the only evidence of the cold spell are half melted snowmen and blocks of wet ice in the pond. It was a poor closing ceremony, with no final drama unlike 2018 BFTE. My rating My rating of this cold spell with the most weighted parameters towards the top of the list and the less weighted towards the bottom: Longevity of snow cover: 8 days (8.5 out of 10) Number of ice days: 5, with non ice days staying below 2c (8 out of 10) Maximum snow depth: 12cm (7 out of 10) Consecutive days of snowfall: 5; Sunday to Thursday (9.5 out of 10) Icicle formation? And to what extent? Yes (6 out of 10) Closing ceremony: poor, no transitional snow (0 out of 10) Frozen water bodies: small to medium lakes froze (7 out of 10) Coldest max temp: -2.5c (8.5 out of 10) Coldest min temp: -6.0c (3 out of 10) Variety of types of snow: ‘good’ with a mix of dry fine snow with bigger wetter snow types but no slider frontal snow (7.5 out of 10) OVERALL RATING: 7.5 out of 10