[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

56 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Pure filth from the GFS this morning.

Still too far out to bank on, especially with disagreements between models over the polar regions.

Good Morning 

The disagreements showing over the last few days are these not due to the SSW ? 
And the models trying to get to grips with it ? 
Thus creating inconsistency around them ? 
 

I get a little confused as some members are posting it’s great then the next day they are posting they saw the writing on the wall days ago

Wouldn’t it be wiser to just watch & wait if there’s a ssw forming as I’m sure it affects all the reliability of the models . 
I do understand this is a model output group and some are just saying what the charts show . But sometimes the wording that supports them is very confusing 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

3 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

You little grinch I thought that was forecast for 1st Jan 2023 almost spat my tequila out

Tequila at 5am I’m coming to yours for Christmas 🫣

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It’s Alistair but I’ll take this for Xmas day

Morning Allison 

do you have a link to these charts please ? 
 

 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

7 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

What do you mean “the new year looks mild”, that’s a T+384 chart!

That’s unbelievably confusing especially for newbies why post charts that are T+384 away and add a statement of mild for new year ? Not helpful at all 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Hi sorry if this has been asked before but what time is the ecm out please ? 
thanks 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Thought so…

Is this bad ? x

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Better than this morning !!

Looking forward to ec46 later

What time is that out please ? 

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

A couple of gefs pert's get the cold in from the east...

P12 at 114 hrs and it looks like a jumping fish

and i love P8

so still some uncertainty if we will or not get the cold in from the east.

 

I can even see the word cold in this chart

[Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn]

5 hours ago, TSNWK said:

Over the years I've grown to really appreciate your contributions @tight isobar.. maybe guilty of a cold bias..  but hey you're in good company there and clearly knowledgeable on topic.. articulated in an unique style...you're one of my tagged posters.. 

Here's to winter 2022..

I too really enjoy @tight isobarposts I can understand them well enough . 
Posts from people I don’t understand I tend to just scroll past not slate for it Keep posting @tight isobar

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

On 25/10/2022 at 21:47, SqueakheartLW said:

GFS 12z P16 is the run we want as we head into November

Just gets progressively colder as we head into next month and eventually has a taste of winter late in the run

Even gets a little bit of snow in too.

Doesn’t that tie in with what the Met monthly forecast was hinting at ? 
second week in November colder and a hint of snow to northern areas ? 

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

February 2011 was very mild though so overall, winter 2010-11 wasn't as cold as winter 2009-10.  December 2010 was a severely cold month but effectively that winter was over for most by early January.

It's one of those forecasts that you can argue for and against.

 

Yes my fault  I meant the 2009/2010 winter 

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

Just now, Weather-history said:

 

 

 

 

So pretty wrong then 🫣

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I can’t recall accuweather but Exeter were pretty bullish on cold conditions developing late nov and into December on the monthly forecast (whether this was the line of thinking late October I don’t recall ) 

What’s Exeter take on this winter or is it to early for them to say 

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

9 hours ago, Liam Burge said:

Accuweather is going for an interesting take on this winter.

However, they do go on to say that fewer snowy days can be expected in cities such as Dublin and Edinburgh, and temperatures for the whole of winter will be near normal, with cold snaps possible. 

The most interesting read to me, at least, is "“There can be stretches of mild weather with near-normal temperatures," Roys said. "However, an outbreak of colder weather can settle across the region for a period of two to three weeks.". 

reference - https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-forecasts/accuweather-2022-2023-europe-winter-forecast/1259417

Hi just out of interest what was accuweather and met office etc saying just before the end of October 2010 ? 

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

11 hours ago, Premier Neige said:

Where did you learn to speak emoji?

It’s a gift

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

7 hours ago, lassie23 said:

This is my early winter thoughts in emojis 

So basically your in shock with football results 

then the energy crisis hits 

next Christmas Day party

onto Boxing Day boredom 

and rounding it off with far to much alcohol in the new year

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into mid-January]

34 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:

Those wanting cold and snow... Look away now... More of the same from GFS... An utter Borefest... Next Run... 

MY goodness it’s absolutely relentless ! 
I was hoping February was going to bring the love in and scatter us with just a little of the lovely white stuff , that is looking more and more less likely now !

please please can we have just a little taste of winter at least

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah true but I personally prefer a harsh mid winter will always be 60% more severe for the same airmass, I'd take snow at easter tho as a last resort.

Me too but that’s getting less and less likely so anything is a bonus

[Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread]

5 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yup we're eating away at winter now. Could easily be 1st of March and still nothing. I can see it happening.

There’s more chance of snow at Easter than Christmas still plenty of time

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, Benny123 said:

Woah, those flakes look huge! Where in Derbyshire is this? 

It’s up on the tops of Matlock there really huge

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

56 minutes ago, swfc said:

Nope not with the nhp and PV. If I'm wrong il ride a penny farthing threw sheffield town centre naked playing cumbiare on spoons.,

Please please do or outside Hillsborough

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

Just wanted to wish everyone A happy new year whilst it’s not so busy have a wonderful evening

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Just rain here unfortunately

[Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021]

Merry Christmas to everyone on netweather