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Georgina

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    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 02/12/2021 at 13:26, MATTWOLVES said:

    I hate to keep harping on about the same thing here,but how on earth can you say the seasonal models have called this correctly? You would need to be at least half way through the winter to make that kind of call!

    And regarding CFS..its bit like going to costcutters for ya shopping,when we've got access to the Harrods of models out there!

    In the short term...snow possible tonight,I'm not expecting a great deal though as milder air chases in behind it.

    Perhaps a greater chance of something wintry over the weekend as temps begin to fall again...and perhaps more of a chance of suprise snowfall during Sunday night,and into Monday!.

    Beyond that I just don't care.

    As Danny Glover used to say in Lethal Weapon...im to old for this Sh@t

    This is why beginners like me get so confused by people calling off winter on the 2nd December ! And from my few years of following this thread the CFS isn’t the most reliable model , so when people put posts like this it’s really really confusing

    • Like 22

    Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 01/12/2021 at 05:54, carinthian said:

    Morning all. Not a bad outlook from UKMO run this morning. Keeps the British Isles in a mostly rather cold regime for most of the next 7 days. The extended also shows the prospect of some snow  that can develop in the flow predicted( chart below ) Oh, GFS  starts cold,then mild  and then back to a drier colder prospects in the longer term but the big cold block out to the NE never gets shunted away. So best again possibly look no further than 5 days or so. In the meanwhile plenty of surprises in the making, I think.

    All the best from a snowbound Austria,

    UKMHDOPUK00_168_32.png

    It’s showing snow for my area tomorrow night on the radar , plenty of surprises just like you said ❄️

    47339A87-0E4A-4D05-93B8-6CC1B3A82D8C.png

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - closing in on Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    On 19/11/2021 at 07:40, winterof79 said:

    Worth keeping an eye on the jet stream later in the weekend as it interacts with potential tropical storms  firstly over either side of India and then over SE Asia creating a surge over the Pacific and is critical to the jet pulse over the Conus and then up over Greenland.

    Screenshot_2021-11-19-08-08-49-40_40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.jpg

    Screenshot_2021-11-19-07-31-48-36_a23b203fd3aafc6dcb84e438dda678b6.jpg

    What does this mean for the weather in the uk please ? 

    Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

    So what are people's preferences a northerly with the chance of heavy but marginal snow. Or an Easterly with snow less marginal but much lighter unless you get lucky with a front pushing inland. So far 15cm from the North. Icing sugar from the East lol. Its going to have to go some to hit those euro4 targets.

    Think I’d have to go for a Northerly myself 

    • Like 1

    Midlands Regional Discussion Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Gord said:

    Been at work all afternoon and evening working the trains. Been to Redditch, Lichfield and Walsall and have observed the same all over. Grey with a few flurries.

    At Wolverhampton station now waiting for the last run of my shift back to New Street, notice the flurries are a little more persistent here.

    I’m on evening shifts all week...could be interesting.

    Stay safe ❄️

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
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