AMeltedFlake
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Posts posted by AMeltedFlake
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Just now, Zak M said:
Look at those echoes
Wow! Usually only see those mid July
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I'm in the risk area for all of the 25+ storm forcasts for today It's pretty clear to my South West, but I have this Tower to my North East
(Shrewsbury)
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Looks like the cells aren't moving? Is this due to convergence?
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I suppose a 15% from Estofex is better than nothing
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Just now, Allseasons-si said:
BBC's take on it
METO's take on it.
Thank you, just seen Convective Weathers post for tomorrow, and I was surprised not to see any green! But they may do when confidence improves
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1 minute ago, staplehurst said:
Wales, N + W Midlands, NE England, Cumbria and more of Ireland
Thank you, I'm Wales/West Midlands, so fingers crossed
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Main risk areas tomorrow?
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Shocked there aren't any sferics from the downpour in Powys! Must be a pretty strong cap in place?
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Looking at satellite imagery, the clouds near me (East Walea) look pretty beefy! But no echoes yet, is there usually a long delay?
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5 minutes ago, James1979 said:
Estofex don't even have a 15% chance for anywhere in the UK today and they are nearly always spot on.
I was just about to say that...CW have a slight out...strange
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Looking west towards the cell near Newtown!
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Looks like all the action will be in the East/South now, good luck everyone
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North Easterly coming in quicker or slower than expected?
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3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:
I don't think you would fair too badly,keep an eye on them showers in S Wales,they look to be heading your way.
Are these the showers that will kick everything off later?
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5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Small pockets of cumulus developing now and the sun still shining strongly. Good that we are not being plagued with lots of stubborn cloud and maximising insolation.
Still cloudy in South Shropshire, and the breeze is quite cool. Not sure if it's supposed to have burnt off by now!
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Just now, Supacell said:
Seems a bit dubious to me. He is a respected forecaster and normally knows what he is talking about, but no forecaster is infallible and this goes against all other forecasts and charts that I have seen. Will be interested to see what transpires.
That's exactly why it caught me by surprise Being honest, not too sure what he means by sustained upper ridging, but apparently that's the reason for the cancellation!
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Not too sure if I'm allowed to talk about another site in here but Tony Gilbert From UK Weather World has cancelled his Thunderstorm forcast for today
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41 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Something to do with sea temps causing convergence and cooling aloft causing more extreme differential between temps at the extreme top and bottom of storm clouds ... I think
Thank you, that explains why they're dying out just before they reach me!
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Is it a common theme for Autumn...with Storms being more likely on the coasts instead of inland?
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The text forcast on the Met Office app, sounds like stormagedon for the West Midlands over the next 4 days
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Surely the "Storm" near Peterborough can't be produces this strike rate, false strikes maybe?
^ Ignore this, the radar echoes are now torrential!
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Chance of thundery showers looks decent in the south, not too sure about the chance of one this morning for me (Shropshire).
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Interesting to read CW forcast for today, I was expecting a Slight for most of the UK!
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I could understand poor accuracy if it was a destabilising plume (don't think it is) but in my short term of being a fan of the weather, I've always assumed that simple(ish) low pressure systems should be easier to predict?
Storms and Convective discussion - 10th April 2020 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Will this push any further East?