AMeltedFlake
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Posts posted by AMeltedFlake
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12 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Hard to know to be honest, as it's only been available to us peons for a few months. It ties in with what the Euro4 model is showing, though. It's quite possible that the Met's own MOGREPS does a better job, but we'll never know!
Just to add; the forecasts for locations on the Met Office' site use the UKV model. After showing numerous lightning symbols for my location for the past 4 days, they have now been removed. lol
It's a radar watch situation for me!
I didn't know that the MOGREPS even existed, so that's interesting to know the bulk of rain off the coast Cornwall has been forecasted to move across the south of the UK, looks like its still heading NE at the moment.
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
I hope the UKV is wrong. The last few runs have been moving the worst of it East.
I was thinking the same! Is it a common theme for the UKV to move everything east?
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9 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:
Very heavy rain, caught off guard by lightning very bright and I had thought the storm wasn't electric anymore.
Couple of sferics detected in that cell!
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10 minutes ago, PurpleLED said:
Well as much as I enjoy sleeping (especially when not very well) I think I may stay up a bit longer because I'll be kicking myself I miss a storm lol.
Are there any apps that could wake me up if a storms close by?
Edit: gone to other side of my house and can see flashes
Are these flashes from the showers to the south?
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12 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Have already had a few rumbles of thunder from a cell that was just red on the radar so they don’t need to max out on rainfall scales or show all strikes on the lightning map.
I think the cell that you've just had is heading towards me! Let's see if it's still rumbling...
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3 minutes ago, WeatherWatchmanG said:
Hardly intense enough for thunderstorms, they can struggle but they aren't struggling.
You're correct, they dont seem to be electrifying, although the radar is apparently maxing out at rainfall amount. Not sure if they'll pick up tonight whilst moving north.
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Do lightning detector sites struggling to register cloud to cloud strikes? Looks like some intense showers in the south!
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Just now, zmstorm said:
Where are the storms in the east? Were they supposed to develop earlier or later?
I believe they will begin to fire off in the next couple of hours?
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1 hour ago, zmstorm said:
Eastern? I thought the storms would be near the NW? Or am I getting the days mixed up
Being honest, I'm confused too, GFS/UKV and a few others are showing instability in the east, but other models are showing the west instead!
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In regards to Tuesday, are we looking towards to eastern areas then?
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6 minutes ago, Supacell said:
Lots of heavy showers packing into the SW, S Wales and SW Midlands. Unfortunately none of them are thundery. Pity as they are heading this way.
Are we done with Thundery activity in the west for tonight?
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How will this event tonight compare to Tuesday 23rd July? Less chance of storms this evening?
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Not even a 50% chance of lightning from Estofex! Seems odd to me.
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Do we know when this system will start to move North East? Looks like it's just moving east to me, probably wrong!
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4 minutes ago, neil_b said:
It wasn’t there when I looked! Very rapid development. Will enjoy just watching the sky in this weather. 30 degrees here.
Guessing the cap is too strong for these cells to develop?
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Any reason why the NetWeather Short Range model is showing the main storms to the west of wales up through into Scotland?
Storms and Convective discussion - 28th July 2019 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by AMeltedFlake
Not 100% sure how the model runs works, but the 21Z 2am model compared to the live rainfall is around 100 miles too far east!