ChannelThunder
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Posts posted by ChannelThunder
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Eagle Eye good stuff. IOW is about to pop out from underneath the warm front aswell. It'll be good just to know we're on the right side of that for developments
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*Stormforce~beka* definitely worth staying up 'til about 11 as we'll be into nowcasting territory and who knows, maybe there'll be a last minute model swing in our favour? Not game over just yet for us but looking less likely than it did yesterday...
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*Stormforce~beka* 1-2am by looks of it. Latest Arome is far from encouraging down here though...
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SilverWolf exactly! I've seen the word brought out on here prematurely, shortly before Blitz has then litten up! Obviously every situation is a bit different, but it can't be called a bust until it's actually appropriate to do so based on timings and severity on model runs and outlooks.
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I'm not a mod, but if people can refrain from using the word 'bust' (if actually applicable) until at least the scheduled time of the storms, that'd be great! Just a little pet peeve from previous recent events...
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Daniel_c150311 this one is more of an Algerian plume if you trace it back! Very unusual, don't recall it happening before but I dare say it has done before my living memory!
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LightningLover if you're a Cumulonimbus, that looks like a delicious 5 course dinner
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Very much now looking better placed here in Winchester than I will be back home tonight!
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Southern Storm can see you ending up with about 2 hours sleep before work if you do chase... So the boring but safe option would be to stay put! Nobody wants to try and function at work on that little kip!
Unless you can book some late notice leave
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The undulatus this morning is quite something!
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On an office day in Winchester so I'll be quiet in here 'til later on! If I took my car over for these days I'd have been tempted to stay over on the mainland to open up chase opportunities for the night, alas I'll be back home hoping the storms come to me!
It does increasingly look like the most lightning activity will be over Kent, Sussex and then northwestwards of there, I think I'll be on the edge of that and could just get stuck with heavy rain .
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Wow; UKV 12z is even better!
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Andy Bown I'd settle for that
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Quite a big southwards nudge on the latest UKV!
I'm not gonna say that 'b' word from the model thread, but I'm thinking it...
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I know we can't take these things too literally, but I like the position of that shortwave on the fax charts for midnight UTC tomorrow:
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CoventryWeather sadly it's looking like a very late one; the low itself has got to get all the way here from Tunisia, where it's parked at midday today!
Edit: it's kind of hard to tell whether a new low entirely is born from its remains, only on mobile at the mo!
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UKV has woken up overnight, then! Just about keeps me in the game but one northward shunt and it's game over.
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Zak M some similarities, yes!
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Kent imports some absolute humdingers on the 12z ECM, tracking from there over central southern England and over to south/mid Wales, followed by afternoon homegrowns north of London.
A little nudge southwards would be fantastic for me but I'm not banking on it as it currently looks like we'll be on the frontal rainfall side of things!
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CoventryWeather ah I see! No point looking there then haha
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viking_smb This has happened before. Sometimes Paul posts an update to let everyone know it's down. It's not just Netweather either as WeatherOutlook's version is stuck too. I think the last time this happened, it sorted itself out on the following 15z...
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Interesting that the Met Office are fully behind their model and not entertaining that this event could just as well be further north and east. Aidan mentions frequent lightning for the southwest:
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Storms and Convective discussion - May 2024
in Storms & Severe Weather
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Explosive development on satellite around Auxerre, with Kent's name on it based on current direction.