ChannelThunder
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Posts posted by ChannelThunder
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Forecaster's nightmare, this low. Jamie at IOW Met Service is being brave enough to do Facebook updates explaining the situation, opening himself up to dramatic replies from those who don't actually read or understand the situation and expect their snow!
I always favour the ECM over the others, particularly when it comes to the position of lows; so I'm about 80% sure this precip. will be staying in France.-
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2 minutes ago, TN26 said:
in the Model thread again. Up and down and around and around.
Dare I look?
'Poor' pub run? More runs needed??
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19 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
hope so!
It can stay for a couple of weeks to let everything dry out, but then I'll start to miss my old mate The Atlantic
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12 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:
Somehow I doubt it. Dry forecast changed to outside chance of rain and sure enough it's raining again:
I get the feeling we're on the cusp of another February 2023-style dry spell. I may be very wrong of course, but if I was a betting man I'd say that's it for the Atlantic fronts, barr decaying ones, for the next 3-4 weeks minimum.
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6 hours ago, The Enforcer said:
I wonder how much of the average monthly totals for January has fallen in the first 4 days of the month?
Areas of the Midlands are already past 50%, according to a table on ITV News last night.
Looking at the upcoming blocking, it'd be ironic if after the first 4 days of Jan and the large totals, the rest of the month was entirely bone dry to the point where January came in under average!
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Got my weather station set up now! There are live readings on the two sites available to me if anyone's interested:
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IYARMO13
https://app.weathercloud.net/d4155825721#profile
I'm wondering if windspeeds are being somewhat under-read so far.
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47 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
Oh no not you germed either! What you got?
It was possibly COVID, but our remaining tests are out of date and weren't working. It felt a lot like the previous time I had that, back in March. On the other hand it could've just been another nasty viral thing that's doing the rounds. I clearly caught it in the office last Weds; very wise to get everyone together just 5 days before Christmas...
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I've joined the ranks of the weather station owners, thanks to a present from my fiancé! While I've had a terrible Christmas thanks to a nasty virus, I'm well enough now to work on installing it before going back to work tomorrow!
It's the Accur8 7-in-1 off Weathershop. Nothing fancy, but at circa. £150 my other half thought it was ridiculously expensive, haha.
Looking forward to finally having some data from my often crazy-windy back garden...
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1 hour ago, LetItSnow! said:
You must have loved/would have loved the Christmasses of 1997, 1998 and 1999 then as all of them were very stormy. Apparently the Christmasses of 1947, 1989 and 1990 actually had thunderstorms in places.
Sadly I don't remember those, despite being 10-12 years old at the time!
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Taking a look in the model thread after seeing any chance of cold for Xmas vanish...
Gotta feel for them, I guess! I'm still waiting for my stormy Christmas repeat (ala 2014), and they're still waiting for the snowy Christmas that I wouldn't even be able to tell you when last happened. Who's gonna be waiting longer?
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What a grim time of year. The light levels are nasty from lunchtime onwards and everything looks so sorry for itself, with the last of the greenery from summer having gone now.
Then you go into the model thread and it's raining posts and excitement. I wish I could share their enthusiasm! Roll on the end of Feb when things start to turn back for the better.
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Well, 2023 won't be one to remember for storms, at least down here. Probably the joint-worst year, along with 2020, for me.
2022's plume events only occured in the Spring and Autumn, and this year was even worse, with a measley, messy & windy one in September where the majority of lightning activity evaded this little island.
I make that just two plume events that have hit this area during the core summer months over the last four years. The disappointing trend continues, even more strongly now.
Let's just say, I feel very justified getting out of here to see some action in Arizona this year!
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After a remarkably dry Feb and another lengthy dry period May/June, that's some going!
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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:
The last couple of UKV runs have pushed the majority of it in to France.
...yet the warning area goes all the way up to St Albans! I suspect that'll quickly get cancelled early on tomorrow
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That squall now basically misses the south coast entirely on the latest UKV, which is in line with the lower res models. Dare I say the MO warning already looks daft?
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Can't see there being a whole lot of lightning, if any, with that little squall. Maybe I'm missing something
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A potent cell way out in the channel, showing what could be possible nearer to our shores this evening:
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Any thundery-ness expected in this evening's coastal downpours between Dorset and Kent?
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43 minutes ago, Metwatch said:
Seeing a few nutters on tiktok pretending to be some sort of weather guru saying Debi (not even named at all by the UK Met) will slam the Channel Islands again and much bigger/stronger than Ciaran etc. They all use the same wind map as well I think from Zoom Earth.
Another one livestreaming yesterday had a few hundred viewers I managed to briefly get his attention saying it has been named Domingoes and will impact Spain and France a lot more.
The good thing is that the Met Office social media accounts are gaining more attention, they're doing well on tiktok too so hopefully more people pays attention to them.
I really hate TikTok, and I'm not even on it
I decided that at 36, I'm too old* for such nonsense.
*no offense meant to anybody older than me who uses it!-
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The public and certain media outlets seem to have named Debi tomorrow themselves, when all that the system will bring to the UK is some rain and maybe a stiff breeze for the south.
Sick of seeing 'Debi' all over Facebook, and when you point out it's not true you get Metro articles claiming the MO have named it shoved in your face.
I hope the Met Office spot all of this and do some kind of fact checking social media post to confirm that there's not a storm due tomorrow and it's definitely not named Debi!
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18 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
From Dan Holley of Weatherquest, a comparison of model forecasts for the track of Storm Ciaran versus the actual observed:
A look back at the deterministic runs of the main global models from Wednesday (00z) for the expected track of #StormCiarán. Much of East Anglia and inland SE England narrowly missed the very strong winds as Ciarán tracked further east than forecast.
Source: X https://x.com/danholley_/status/1720170155047546913?s=20
A win for UKMO & UKV then. The latter was showing the strongest gusts well away from the south coast as far back as some runs on Monday, but some here seemed to dismiss it somewhat.
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5 minutes ago, Thunderspotter said:
Is anyone else having these issues when accessing pages on the Netweather Community site?
Edit: Seems to be back now.
Had that various times over the last 24 hours. A lot of forums struggle when there are times of high traffic.
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16 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:
And you think our sea temperature is going to rise by 7 degrees in your lifetime?
It seems such a small number, doesn't it, but I can't imagine the change in climate that would be required to achieve such an increase to our sea temps at this latitude. If that level of climate change occured I think we'd long be dead before ever worrying about a hurricane forming off the coast of Cork
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So, after all the last minute worry about it going further north and intensifying (which mostly seemed linked to 'eerie feelings' etc rather than observations), it's actually seemingly tracking a fair bit further south...
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South West and Central Southern England Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards
in SW and CS England Weather Discussion
Posted
https://www.facebook.com/iwmetservice
Jamie (Russell) is also a member on here, can't remember his username right now though!