Beanz
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Posts posted by Beanz
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Quite stiff gusts here, not a gale yet though
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7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
IMO the red warning should have been extended but it’s now too late and many people are going to be making journeys they shouldn’t .
It’s not too late, we’ve got another 12 hours.
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1 hour ago, cookie27 said:
Is it just me or are Metoffice really underplaying this or do they know something we don't know. I'm now in Eltham South East London and these seem at least 10mph what we can expect
They always know something the rest of us don’t know.
Are you referring to wind speed or gusts?
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49 minutes ago, Wold Topper said:
Have been up to the top of one, never again lol, ours round here are limited in height due to the proximity to RAF staxton wold, most farm based ones lock out when the wind exceed a certain speed to protect the gearbox and internal drive,
They all disengage at relatively low wind speeds, even the offshore monsters
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1 minute ago, SnowBear said:
Three very different areas though too
Sitting here in Colchester like you, I’d say it’s fairly breezy out there. We’re just out of town and quite exposed though.
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The signals from the GfS this evening are interesting, but the ECM is having none of it - flat out mild dross, I’m with Mike on this, I can’t see this changing now.
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9 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:
BBC suggesting 15c on Saturday for London. I’m not seeing this on the models tonight?
I think it’s there in the models, have you looked at UKMO?
Should be a nice weekend, make a chance from the gloom!
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3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
It has also been a virtually fogless winter for most places. This high pressure has failed to deliver any widespread fog, like many anticyclones would have done years ago. It has just been the whole pattern that has failed to come together to deliver any significant cold, and there has not, and looks unlikely out to the end of January, that there has not been a cold spell to speak of, despite high pressure around much of the time, and many areas have seen no fog, and snowfall has been limited to the few areas that caught some in the short lived northerly early this month, and some places that had some in late November before winter started.
Last year's warm September has destroyed cold prospects for this winter, and this winter was already dead in the water last September after its anomalous warmth, and the warm September = poor winter theory has just followed suit again.
This winter has nothing to do with what happened in September.
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Things are looking remarkably positive, high pressure dominating for quite a period.
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1 hour ago, Dj fart said:
No it isn't, it's evens. Read it again.
"After five heads, the odds of getting another heads".
You would be correct if it was the odds of six in a row. An individual toss is an entirely separate event.
If it was one individual coin toss without a preceding event or series of events, then you’d be correct. But there’s a series of events that the statement relates to, so the odds are based on that fact.
You’re in the next village to me, meet in the Yew and debate over a beer?
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14 minutes ago, DCee said:
I agree. However, after tossing five heads in a row the chance of heads on the next toss is still evens.
It’s not, it’s about 1.56% chance of heads on the 6th go
(1/2)^6
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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:
Icon looks OK at 120 hours, could start dragging down cold air again, looking at the profile.
Talking about dragging down, half the posters in here are going see their credibility be dragged down the toilet if the models flip to cold again, including the more expert posters, considering they seem certain mild will return.
I wouldn't bank on it, yet.
I think anybody claiming certainty either way at anything past the end of the following day is just foolish. I certainly wouldn’t claim this mornings output nails anything on for the weekend just yet. I have to say though, some well know serial posters were claiming “85-90% certainty” (yes, that’s an actual quote) as far back as last Saturday.
There is only one lesson to learn either way, whether it’s mild or cold this weekend, and that’s patience.
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15 minutes ago, bobbydog said:
Strange....
The GFS is showing snow, somewhere in the UK, on 12 of the 14 days it covers. Virtually every part gets some, with some significant snowfall shown.
for example-
Even my snow starved location is shown to get it on 6 days out of 14...
Yet people seem to be giving up on winter already. looks to me like we're all in with a good shout...
I'd be happy with just one snowman's worth, so my youngest daughter can build her first ever. (she's 10 in March!)
It’s not a case of giving up on winter, it’s completely the opposite - you’re showing snow charts at +10days away, they’re about as much use as a handbrake on a canoe. They’re not even accurate at +24 hours!!
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2 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:
I think people always getting carried away when the charts show cold weather, but to get cold and snowy weather on the far south coast is going to take a special event.
I googled special events that would deliver snow on Portsmouth, just out of interest..
Alien invasion.
Life-ending asteroid impact.
World ravaging plagues.
Social collapse from environmental and economic collapse
Technological collapse
Rise of the homicidal machines.
Nuclear holocaust
Technology Singularity.
Humans all turned into batteries.
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2 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:
ECM after initially entertaining a push of heights ends up collapsing them and in comes a low and milder air - albeit at day 9 and wayyyy in FI. Looks a strange evolution but there you go.
As an aside, I'm still finding it odd that people are getting hung up on precipitation 4/5 days away from the event.
People were getting hung up on precip last Sat! I’m not surprised at all. But I agree, it’s still too early to call any of it.
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1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:
I do not wish to discuss my professional life on an informal weather forum
I didn’t think you was
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Just now, Kasim Awan said:
I'm sharing my view if that is allowed. You are not aware of my profession either.
I'm not a fan of creating segregation.
Are you a professional weather forecaster…?
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2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:I disagree here.
Discounting data is an important skill any weather forecaster should have
Especially for short term forecasts
The judgement of whether a chart / scenario is credible or whether it is an outlier is a key skill
Are you actually explaining to a weather forecaster, how to be a weather forecaster…??
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14 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:
Not even a session on Wikipedia and languages of the Dark ages has been able to give me a translation of this post tight.
Your obviously unique mate
Try this..
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I think @Steel City Skies last post is a good example of how these type of synoptics always play out in the run up to an 'event'. I use that term loosely, as i'm not convinced this will be much to right home about in terms of snowfall, but the excitement in this forum tends to ensure reality gets a bit lost sometimes. That said, i'm here for the same reason as the rest of us.
The various models are all modelling a snow line a various latitudes across the UK and none can be considered right or wrong until +0 hours. We will very soon be in nowcast territory and the forum will go quiet or re-focus on the next chase, whilst those who were lucky enough to fall on the right side of the battleground will enjoy the results.
Lets play nicely, it's nearly Christmas, its been another tough year and we all need a break and some good news. Those who maintain some reality on a situation aren't trolls, they're just more inclined to reality and have probably been here many many times before over the years.
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20 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Looks like 40cm widely
I have several hats ready to eat…
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7 minutes ago, london-snow said:
If you are referring to the met update they are as much use as a chocolate fire guard. Three days ago it was stated ‘Colder in the south’ ‘Milder in the north’ now flip.
No different to the sentiment on here really let’s be honest, I don’t think anybody has called it with any accuracy at any point. Its nobody’s fault, the models are giving us a good chase all over the shop.
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2 hours ago, Kasim Awan said:
Those plots are wrong mate.
They're not wrong, they're actually a good tool if you know how to use them.
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4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
Not at such short notice when aligned at 120.. onto another day 10 chase. Be the 3rd one when / if we get one.. which is not bad going in fairness for December 20th
The thing is, they could easily flip at this stage. Thats not me being an eternal optimist, just having seen this so many times before over the years.
Storm Eunice - 18th February
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Just up the road near Colchester, ramped up in the last half an hour. Genuinely quite worrying, my house is ancient - That goes either of 2 ways, it’s been here for 350 years and survived worse, or it’s old and frail and half of it will end up scattered across the village..