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Beanz

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Posts posted by Beanz

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well winter has ended and without much in the way of snow or notable cold spells.  Still we move on, there’s always next winter! 

    Both ECM and GFS trending towards a dry and more settled outlook (ECM just a bit wet and stormy later on), if we can keep the low sitting just out of sight and let our friend Uncle Azores in a bit I think we’ll be good for Spring.  

     

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Oh, ok. I’m just confused as to where the ‘downgrade from meto ‘ comment has come from? From what I can see they have been consistent since this morning with sleet and snow (M4 to Birmingham) accumulating over high ground and melting by lunchtime 

    @IDOexplained in a much more eloquent manner than I did (thanks ).  The downgrade I was referring to was from their (METO) forecast (on the app) which at around 6am this morning showed heavy snow for Thurs c.10am-midday IMBY (about 5 miles north of yours by the looks of it).  By midday, and now referring to the app, website and video, it had downgraded to sleet IMBY and pretty much everywhere in the area I mentioned earlier.  

    Either way, we can still keep fingers crossed for last min upgrades in real time!  

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    @BeanzWhat are you referring to when you say ‘Meto’?  This is the forecast for east of England published on the Met Office official website at 330pm. This is written by senior forecasters who view all the available output (more than we can see). 

    FA2613FB-4FC3-4358-971D-775B1B9DF7E1.jpeg

    I was referring to their video forecast, rather than the written not that it makes much difference.  In essence it amounts to the same, the source input is the same just in a more colourful output.  

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Here's a GIF of the HIRLAM 12z during the period of interest tomorrow:

    anim_wsx7.gif

    This looks to me to match very well with the MO warning area, and as I have said before I rate this model on precipitation, certainly more than GFS or other global models.

    Its certainly showing some interesting accum.  I think I buy into the precip though.  

     

    1884034587_Screenshot2020-02-26at21_23_54.thumb.png.3ad885b6842b0fbefae45dcd13e3c7c0.png

    • Like 1

    Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Beanz

    1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    The lack of MetO warnings for tomorrow mornings ‘event’ says it all!

    Warnings are in place, but i'm still not convinced it will come to much, certainly not much in the way of snow, more likely sleet and cold rain.  Its simply not going to be cold enough. 

     

     

    Screenshot 2020-02-26 at 15.20.04.png

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Beanz

    MetO is quite confident on the track of the low being south as their favoured model solution, straight through the channel.  Not bringing much in the way of snow, more like rain.  Saturday I would suggest is looking like a rain only event, no sign of anything white.  

     

     

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Beanz

    17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    1st Feb 2019 event written all over it

    I don’t remember that event, was it noteworthy? 
    EDIT: my photos remember...we got some snizzle by the looks of it.  I remember driving back through the Cotswolds, a kind of slushy mix of rain and snow.  

     

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

     

    I get that...however..we know it's going to bounce up and down...and maybe just for nowcast when it comes down to the wire....but I'd guarantee some will benefit in snow accumulation terms....it just geographically pin-pointing as per...it's I'm sure not a miss -and redirect feature this!!.. Ppn @no issue.

    I think Mike is probably right, I’m not entirely sure what weight your guarantee holds but looking at what’s on offer in the models at the moment, it’s not worth much.  
     

    I’m calling Thursday a ‘non-event’ - as much as I’d love it to be otherwise.  

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Which forecast ??‍♂️For which day? Based on which model?  Meto 4pm update for the south has moved from rain showers on Thurs to rain and snow on hills. Their graphic also now has sleet and snow symbols.

    Let be clear though,  there is very little risk of powdery snow for anyone below 250m south of Leeds but slushy accumulations are possible and almost everyone is at risk of seeing snow falling over the next 7 days...eagerly awaiting ECMs take on things. 

    METO, for Thursday, north of London, South of Notts, below 200m ??

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Beanz

    I fear all this is going to lead to is a cold wet period, not feeling particularly like winter.  
     

    The JS is still very active and not that far away, the output of the models at the moment suggests to me a cold period but not much in the way of snow away from higher ground, particularly in the South.  
     

     

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion 02/02/20

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Beanz

    12 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    The joys of pattern matching....some good, some bad, some in the middle.....so basically, this summer could be anything 

    We could actually do with an extended dry spell of weather now - it's been very wet since Autumn in a large number of areas in the UK.

    If you’re into your pattern matching, most Marches following a warm ENSO dominated winter have been dry and mild.  

    Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Och well, once the weekend's wind and rain become but a distant memory, the 12Z holds some reason for optimism:

    For those wanting warmth...h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

    For those wanting cold:       h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

    What could possibly go wrong!

    WIN - WIN - To be honest I'm ready for spring now, winter is done and any cold now is becoming less welcome at this point as we head into spring.  There is a time and a place after all...  

     

     

    • Like 8
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