Beanz
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Posts posted by Beanz
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That’s a great picture for this early in the season, brilliant coverage for Scandi zones!
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5 minutes ago, knocker said:
And this is why I'm reluctant to post in this thread. I was in no way trying to 'shoot down' anyone but merely politely trying to point out why this is misleading. It is a shame if one cannot do that. And for the record I do not put myself up as one of the more knowledgeable people on this thread, unlike quite a few others.
I’d go with ‘milder blip’ too quite frankly.
You didn’t explain why it might be misleading, you just posted a few charts.
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2 minutes ago, BleakMidwinter said:
You can click on a message and set that user to "ignore posts" - it means you miss anything of interest, but it does mean you can skip the tweets...
Don’t get me wrong, I quite like seeing some snow pics, maybe a separate ‘snow photos/tweets’ thread would be good.
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Is there any chance we could limit the amount of tweets in this thread, it’s becoming impossible to follow the informative messages and really slows down the loading time.
cheers
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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
A cracking mornings runs, hopefully this follows on throughout the day.
There will be some busy animals if they’ve been watching this morning.
I would have thought they’d looked at it and realised it’s so far into la la land that it’s pointless worrying about...324hrs is this morning’s biggest laugh for me!
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Looking great....if it wasn’t 10+ day’s away!
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12 minutes ago, Sceptical said:
Any proof to back up that claim? Link?
Please?
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2 hours ago, Midlands Ice Age said:
Masie today..
Another 235K extent net ice gain..
Now only 2 days behind 2018 and 2012, but only 1 day behind 2016.
This shows the speed of the ice recovery that is taking place.
Laptev and ESS recorded a growth of 112K Km2 together, but now this growth rate will start to diminish as there is not much water left to refreeze..
This is likely to be taken up by a combination of the Beaufort (and pretty soon Bering) where growth was (+26K) today, and that on the Atlantic front of Kara(+33), Barents(+33) and Greenland (+3K).
As always, assuming weather conditions not varying too much.
MIA
Great post again. Much more informative than those just posting an updated Masie map with no written commentary.
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14 minutes ago, shaky said:
I dont know man!!ecm and ukmo have looked constantly yuk for any cold weather in the last 36 hours where as gfs has been solid!!got a horrible feeling gfs is gona climb down in the next few runs!!i hope it doesnt by the way!!
That would be where my money goes too unfortunately. It’s got history
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I also interpret it in a similar way, in that November/December would have to be a very high CET given their prediction for Oct was barely above average. No sniping here, but it seem odd to me.
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10 hours ago, Aleman said:
Already snow on the Atlas range in North Africa. That's very early.
Squint and you’ll see it. Very early though I agree.
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22 minutes ago, tight isobar said:
Anyone remember how we got started 2010...with similar modelling around this- point beginning
Yes, I was debating the same idea actually.
Let’s see how it evolves, it’s certainly a very interesting comparison at the moment -
6 minutes ago, Sceptical said:
James Madden certainly doesn't.
Hahaha!!!! I needed a laugh, thank you
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12 hours ago, Sceptical said:
My thoughts are based on 50 years of experience of winter in NE Scotland and trends over the last 20 years for UK winters.
I suspect, come March 2020, my prediction will be there or there abouts.
That’s a no then..?
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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Though the Horse Chestnut is technically non-native species, it has been a part of Britain's 'natural' environment since around the time of the Romans...? That said, I'd nae be much concerned were we discussing the state of, say, Creosote bushes. (if anyone even bothers growing them!) But, let's be honest: Horse Chestnut trees are hardly in the same league as Japanese Knotweed!
Anywho, as this is the ramping thread...forget about the conkers, think about the stonkers?
Absolutely, you must think I’m bonkers!
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1 hour ago, Aleman said:
The notable change in the last week of miserably wet greyness is bare trees. I do a 6 minute school run on foot past lots of houses with large gardens and trees. There are half a dozen small to mid-sized trees near enough bare now. Some trees have had a tough year. Fruit trees seemed to struggle with the swings from hot to cold in the dry spring and there are a couple of bare ornamental plums. Ash seem to be having a year where they've always looked diseased as do horsechestnuts and one or two of them look to be struggling to keep their withered brown leaves. Being in very tidy gardens, I think it matters when and how many trees were last trimmed/pollarded, too as they get frequent attention. There are other trees that look green so it seems like there is more variation than normal. Walking to school in rain and greyness with no dry days, the odd bare tree and lots of leaves and puddles on the floor makes it feel more like November.
Sounds just like the autumns I remember as a child!
The Horse Chestnuts are probably diseased, it’s not to do with the weather unfortunately. Incidentally it’s an invasive disease affecting a non-native species, so from an ecological point of view, it’s fair game. A shame though nonetheless, even though a game of conkers is no longer allowed in the nanny state!
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Looking much brighter today, and early signs of cooler conditions to end the month. It would be nice to have a chill in the air for Halloween and Fireworks night to make the festivities feel more ‘correct’
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On 13/10/2019 at 13:09, Snipper said:
Looks a bit Turkish Vanish to me. Lovely breed if it is. Good tolerant more than usual laid back house cat. Supposed to like water.
Similar. He’s a Norwegian Forrest cat, same as his sister. Vince and Howard...long story!
They’re more like dogs than cats!
anyway, enough of my cats! Heating was back on today, been 17 in the house which is a bit chilly when I’m just sat at the computer not moving all day.
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6 hours ago, Azazel said:
One of the worst periods of weather in a long time here. Endless rain - like normally there’s often a lull of a few hours where it doesn’t rain and it’s just grey but it’s been raining heavily solidly here for around 48 hours. Estate is flooded, garden is flooded. Several car accidents . Park is a marshland.
Oh well, at least some people are no longer melting in the oppressive 18 degrees summer heat so that’s good.
Nope, but we needed it! Hardly biblical though, let’s face it - we’ll survive
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On 04/10/2019 at 15:48, fujita5 said:
You need a hairier cat, better insulation
This guy never moans about the cold, Norwegian roots apparently..
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4 hours ago, Katrine Basso said:
I don't know if is a good sign for the spread of snow in Scandinavia and Russia.
How so?
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4 hours ago, Snowy Hibbo said:
You beat me to it! Thanks @Summer Sun
- Snow & Ice conditions good for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK.
- MJO largely good for European and UK snowfall, perhaps less so later in winter. Similar for Eastern US and Japan.
- Oceanic ENSO good for Japan, Southwest US and Eastern US.
- -AAM good for Europe, Eastern US and Japan, less strong later in winter.
- Stratospheric conditions favourable for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK.
- Solar minimum favourable for more snowfall for Eastern US, Japan and Europe/UK.
- Atlantic favourable for a snowy UK winter and colder Europe.
- QBO favourable for Eastern US, UK and Europe.
- North Pacific favourable for Eastern US, less so for PNW.
All this is good for a snowy winter IMO, contrary to the models (yes I know, bold, but I have the reasoning to back it up ).
Genuine query. I was under the impression (more than likely the wrong one!) that the Atlantic was warm and not favourable for cold in the UK. What’s your thinking here?
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10 hours ago, CreweCold said:
People keep harping on about last year but it really was just a freak. The seasonal modelling did an exceptional job of picking up the SSW that occurred late Dec/early Jan but where they failed was modelling the downwelling into the trop.
They're not even picking up on a SSW to even confuse things this year. It's a straight forward zonal flow!
The LRFs wouldn’t have been much different even if they had. The 3 month average output may well be ‘zonal’ but that’s not necessarily an accurate forecast of the weather we will experience day to day across that period. Basics really.
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On the plus side, it’s done wonders to my newly seeded lawn - Another week or so of rain will be fine and I won’t need any more
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Model output discussion - late November
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Agreed, 144hr at most or it might as well be a colourful chart drawn by my 9yr old