NewEra21

If that low over Iberia could just stay as far south as possible, I really would be confident. Just don't want it meandering hundreds of miles north and scuppering everything for us.

The good news is that we've seen the GFS finally show a similar outcome to the ECM in the earlier stages. Obviously GFS is nowhere near as good as ECM, but at least it's stopped trending the other way. Let's look for little improvements over the next few runs, let's just get the cold in. Then anything can happen.

Finally GFS moves towards ECM, now watch ECM lose the plot later

While the GFS op wasn't what we want to see, this really isn't a bad set of ensembles. Especially for towards the SE of England.

The trouble is ECM so often over amplifies everything, a little less amplification and those means suddenly won't look so good. Just got to hope ECM has pulled one out of the hat.

All feels a bit similar to last Xmas tbf, was showing heights towards Greenland for days on end. But as time got nearer those heights became weaker and weaker, and it was a non event in the end. Hope ECM is on the correct path, tomorrow's 00z runs will be telling.

I think the word of the day outside of the ECM is messy, very messy!

I'd like to think the ECM is right, but it's lead us up the garden path so many times cold wise. Always seems over optimistic and a bit excited, just to slowly fall back in line with GFS.

Don't like those heights building throughout Europe.

This run all looks a bit messy and iffy tbh.

If we fail to tap into any real meaningful cold from the current pattern, it really will be a kick in the nuts. We wait literally years for these type of charts, and we'll likely have cold rain for the majority of us. Just feels like a huge opportunity that you need to take advantage of, as this pattern doesn't come around every year.

Just like some of us were warning yesterday regarding the West based negative NAO. Still too far out, but there have been warning signs of one developing.

Completely agree with you. Although the charts still look very decent to say the least, there are just signs that things are starting to trend the wrong way currently. The low over Iberia is a real spoiler, but not the end of the world. Then there's the threat just showing that everything will end up with a west based -NAO. Still time for upgrades, but we don't want to see things gain momentum the wrong way so to speak for us in the UK.

Let's hope the low over Iberia gradually trends a little further south and east over the coming days, it's a real spoiler currently.

While I think we all understand and appreciate that patience is required. We all know this is the UK and what can go wrong usually does go wrong when chasing cold. No matter how good the pattern and copius blocking that is currently showing. I think that's the real frustration currently, anything of real interest cold wise is far, far into FI and nothing has ever really got any closer. We've all been scarred far too many times waiting and waiting, just for everything to fall apart. Not saying it's going wrong again, but the longer it takes to advect any true cold our way, you just have less and less confidence. As the pattern won't hold forever!

Really frustrating run this from GFS, so much potential there yet just not falling into place. Feels like missing an open goal with such synoptics.

Let's hope no volcanoes erupt or solar flares appear now, usually something pops up to halt any potential UK cold spell just as things start to look promising

Something is happening here boys and girls, something potentially very special!

Let's just get the high in first, let things dry out a little and see where we go. Background signals look good, we could be in a far worse position as we enter December. Might just have to go through a boring phase to get to somewhere better.

All being said, these are very nice ensembles as we start December. Just have to hope the op has gone off on one and not spotted the new trend. As we know how fickle looking at ensembles can be sometimes, especially in winter. They flip like a hat!

Just as we started to get some run to run consistency of sorts, the op runs go off on one. Typical!

The only positive from a coldies perspective is at least we're seeing this pattern now and it's still well over a month until the start of winter as of yet. I'd definitely love a seasonal bonfire night etc, but I'd take a mild start to November if it means we can finally see this pattern shift to something more seasonal/colder as we head through November. If not, well it's just going to be very depressing

Nights are getting darker, there's a chill in the air and winter is approaching. Absolutely love it as I take the dog for an evening walk!

I know it's still too long until winter to look into anything too deeply, and things will change again over the next month or so. But I'm really loving seeing Europe cool down over the next week or so. Far too many years recently heat has hung around far too long into Autumn across swathes of Europe. Obviously the heat could build back across Europe over the next month or so, but it's just nice to see such a cooldown for a change.

Not really looked at the models bar the odd glimpse all summer, can't wait to start that model chase for the first signs of cold as we head into autumn/winter. Not that the cold will ever arrive of course, but it's the hope and chase that kills and thrills you every year