NewEra21

Let’s just hope we can get a meaningful cold spell in the heart of winter for a change this year, late December - mid January. This period has been horrible in terms of seeing any meaningful cold for a long time now. Come February things always need to be that bit more extreme as the days begin to lengthen.

This really does remind me of last December, a very promising start with plenty of very cold frosty weather with snow for a lucky few. Then when it broke down we all thought the Atlantic wouldn’t be in control for long, but it took an age for the next real cold chase that ended in a whimper in March. Once the Atlantic gets in, it can take an age to get back to something cold for the UK even without a strong PV as we’re seeing now. Background signals look somewhat promising, but we’ve all fallen into that trap before chasing the never ending carrot Let’s just hope this winter is a little different!

You can’t help but feel that this has been a huge missed opportunity for the UK, especially with the cold available in Europe currently. These patterns don’t come along very often, so to see this spell come to nothing really is a bit disappointing. But at least it’s cold and we get to see a few sunny days and frosty nights, then onto the next chase.

I think we’re seeing why it’s so vital to get that low to stay as far south as possible on Thursday now, it brings in deeper cold and then let’s see where we go from next weekend onwards. I know some were hoping for snow from it, and I understand that as we’re all so snow starved in this country. But I feel that would have been sacrificing any potential longevity of this spell. Things can still go very wrong of course, but this low going south and missing the UK gives us the best chance going forward imo.

Still feel like this low on Thursday will decide how long it stays cold, if it goes south and completely misses the UK I feel it locks us into cold for a good while. So imo the further south it goes the better, it brings in deeper cold and sets things up better for next weekend onwards.

I’ll take it over more rain

The further south the better it is for cold though, and it sets the scene for next weekend onwards

I’d rather sacrifice the possible snow of Thursday and see these lows much further south, so we stay on the much colder side. We saw last December that once the Atlantic gets in, it’s not always an easy route back to anything cold.

In terms of temps, the BBC are always well off the mark. Usually come the day it’s at least a few degrees colder, they always overplay the temps.

Pretty much like we saw last year, December started so promising and then it was March before the next real cold we were chasing.

That’s why it’s always vital in the UK to get the real cold in and the Atlantic completely shut off before getting excited, we’ve seen so many potential cold spells go this way. Still time for things to change though of course!

The Atlantic getting involved is never good news for proper good UK cold spells. Sure once the cold is embedded, it gives the chance of good snowfalls. But more often than not it ends the fun and games before they ever get truly started.

Start of next week just looks wet and unsettled once more from tonight’s GFS 12z, was hoping for some dry frosty weather tbh.

Love this forum but also hate it at the same time, what a mess it is in here this morning. Models can predict whatever they want, but at the end of the day there’s only ever one winner. And that’s the weather, as it does whatever it wants and fools us constantly!

It’s still not a bad set of ensembles from the 06z, despite how fickle they can be. The OP amongst the mildest members throughout the period of interest.

Starting to look more interesting for a weeks time, but how often have we seen charts like this gradually slip eastwards leaving us in no man’s land. Signs of promise, but we need to keep our feet on the ground!

Of course it isn’t going to be incredibly cold, it’s still early October. But I’d say many places will be below average this weekend, which is pretty significant in itself from what we’ve seen so far this month. Seasonal with the potential of frosts is something we rarely see in October of late, so that excites me and I’m sure it does others too.

I think it’s fair to say this screams of uncertainty after the initial warm up!m

Lovely end to the GFS 12z, if you like it cold. Won’t look anything like that next run, but that’s what gets me excited as we head deeper into autumn and into winter.

Pretty much tells you everything you need to know

Not posted for months, as summer doesn’t really interest me in terms of charts. But the current rut is why the UK is one of the most frustrating places to live for any weather enthusiast. Be that summer or winter! There’s always heat or cold within touching distance, but more often than not we’ll just continue seeing the same old bland weather all year round, as it just never makes it to these shores. Not that I’d want the heat currently in Europe, as it would frankly be unbearable. But I really do feel the frustrations of those looking for it, as we just eat months away with nothingness. And that’s the case for summer and winter. Anyway only a few months until the cold chase begins, so I say bring it on!

That would be fair, if we actually experienced proper winter weather. Like I said a few posts above, all the seasons are pretty much alike. We don't really experience true seasons. All just pretty bog standard nothingness all year round.

I know it's our climate and things will never be how we want them. But this is the frustration with the UK weather and seasons. We never really experience what you'd want from each season, it's pretty much just the same old thing all year round. Just a touch milder and a touch cooler. With the odd hot or cold spell. All just very meh!

Been saying it for days, but this whole so called cold spell was going the way of a wet fart for the south. The real cold never even really reaches the south coast, where initially it was shown as sweeping down into France. Hence the initial northerly was looking strong and full of convection throughout the UK, but was downgraded run by run. For what could have been, this is a sorry excuse of a cold spell. But Scotland will do well, but is that really news worthy?

I've been looking at weather charts long enough to know when things are going wrong, unlike some in here who are throwing out BOOMS and remarks of this could rival the most severe March cold spells of all time. I just feel this thread needs a dose of realism sometimes.